Dec 17-19 Miller A Pre Christmas Special

[jmundie]

So with that, the Nam is on to a good snowstorm, even better than the Gfs, with the Ull interacting with southern stream energy. Looks like this one is another system that puts the Gfs/Nam against the Euro/Canadian... last time the models trended toward the Euro, so I'm not putting anything in the basket until the Euro agrees with these two.

I wouldn't say that Tom.

I would say if the ULL moves southward as the surface impulse moves through in the gulf, it will be especially nice for us.

[Eric]

A portion of MEG's fresh AFD:

A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WITH A STRONGER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD HELP TO INTENSIFY THE OVERRUNNING PATTERN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...COLDER LOW LEVEL
ADVECTION PATTERN NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE. INTRODUCED A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...MODELS KEEP THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH...BUT THIS WAVE IS MORE
SIGNIFICANT AND COULD HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS IF THE MODELS
TRANSITION FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS SOMETIMES OCCURS WITH
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE MORE TIME
TO ANALYZE THIS STORM POTENTIAL.

Northwest trend, FTW!   

[Cyclonicjunkie]

GFS is starting to be consistent with this threat as the 18z looks alot like the 12z, This could be a better snow than the last for East TN. Starting to get excited about this one, and I think the models will start showing a deeper low which will mean better phasing. Waiting on the ECM to line up

 Going to be a great December

[Tom23]

weren't we waiting for the euro to line up during the last event only to see the gfs line up

[Cyclonicjunkie]

weren't we waiting for the euro to line up during the last event only to see the gfs line up

Yeah but climatology argues against the ECM, besides the 0zECM did line up, and the 12z was pretty close to the same



Here read MRX's AFD

ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF MODEL HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT
(AND USUALLY VERIFIES BETTER)...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS MODEL
SINCE ITS SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE WHAT NORMALLY HAPPENS THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

[Stovepipe]

 Going to be a great December

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Back at you....

Here is the NAM at hr 84, looks like it may make a major phase in the next couple of frames but IDK this is the last frame??





Certainly looks much better than the GFS IMO

[Cameron K.]

A portion of MEG's fresh AFD:

Northwest trend, FTW!   

Oh you know it!  Looks like Lady Luck will stay in Nashvegas for a while  

But seriously, it would be nice if this does pan out in our favor.  

[Cyclonicjunkie]

DGEX

[Woodvegas]

12/14 12Z ECMWF and today's 18Z GFS are pretty similar giving East TN a shot at a decent snow and a half inch or less of snow in Middle TN on Saturday. Of course I would like to see a westward trend 

[Curt]

There is defintely a piece of energy rotating through the north side of the gulf low directly through the mid south. It looks rather meager QPF wise. Would love to see these 2 phase a bit more. Anyone remember that little wave that came through Feb '07? Dumped a quick 2-3 inches along I-40 from Memphis to Nashville? I would settle for that again. Right now it looks like its weak. Still watching  though.

[jmundie]

There is defintely a piece of energy rotating through the north side of the gulf low directly through the mid south. It looks rather meager QPF wise. Would love to see these 2 phase a bit more. Anyone remember that little wave that came through Feb '07? Dumped a quick 2-3 inches along I-40 from Memphis to Nashville? I would settle for that again. Right now it looks like its weak. Still watching  though.

Was that a weekend storm? I seem to remember the only decent accumulation we got that year was a Saturday morning event in Nashville.

(I knocked my Accord out of alignment that daywhen I decided to drive to Chick Fil A for breakfast. Smooth)

[Curt]

Was that a weekend storm? I seem to remember the only decent accumulation we got that year was a Saturday morning event in Nashville.

(I knocked my Accord out of alignment that daywhen I decided to drive to Chick Fil A for breakfast. Smooth)

I think it was a week night, but cant remember completely. Here are 58 pages of tantalizing Tennesse Weather Forum posts from us ranting and raving over 2 inches...
http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,406.0.html

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Was that a weekend storm? I seem to remember the only decent accumulation we got that year was a Saturday morning event in Nashville.

(I knocked my Accord out of alignment that daywhen I decided to drive to Chick Fil A for breakfast. Smooth)

Whats your thoughts on the upper air of the NAM at 84?

[Stovepipe]

I swear I'm not trying to plug Accuweather, but Frank Straight talks in some detail about this weekend's potential storm in his latest video.  Says TN could certainly see some good snow out of this but singles out Chattanooga as being a possible rip off zone.  Who knows, but it's an interesting take on the situation.