Dec 17-19 Miller A Pre Christmas Special

[Tom23]

Can someone please change the thread title to reflect this weekend's time frame?  The GFS is showing an even bigger threat for "Pre Christmas" that deserves it's own thread.

Could you please link the article of Joe B. saying that this weekend will be snowy and the system will be a Big Dog?? Thanks!!

[Stovepipe]

Could you please link the article of Joe B. saying that this weekend will be snowy and the system will be a Big Dog?? Thanks!!

I believe it's only available on the Accuweather Pro site for which I'm currently using a free trial.  Here is the link though:

http://proa.accuweather.com/adcbin/professional/bastardi_index.asp

The "Big Dog" he is referring to is a video series he has, he's not calling the storm a "Big Dog".

Here is the entire blog entry if you want to read it:

TUESDAY 7 A.M.

ODDS AND ENDS

1) The north-northwest flow into Orlando theory worked again. Temps did not get nearly as cold at the airport as the model had (looks like a 4-7 degree bust there). In fact, most of Florida, though very cold, was not as cold as the model forecast! There was no snowcover deep into the South, and the 1962 outbreak had a lot of snow on the ground in front of it and it was colder (it was in the teens below zero in W.Va.)

2) NYC had their own private snowstorm last night with close to 4 inches on the WESTERN part of Long Island.

3) I expect modeling to consolidate on a healthy storm that will bring snow from the Tennessee Valley to the coastal mid- and north Atlantic states this weekend. A front runner is coming out and that is complicating matters, but the upper pattern over the weekend is favorable for snow fairly far back and the surface pattern, should correct toward it. The UKMET remains the most wound up of all the ideas and I will go over the options on the Big Dog.

4) The GFS ensembles 2-meter temp forecasts for week two in the Plains have been the WORST I have ever seen. This week, for my clients, I highlighted the models ideas in the northern plains as alot of them trade temps on Minneapolis where a run last week had temps almost 6 above normal this week. Its trying to pull it again for next week. The CFS, which is a US model, has an absurd nowcast for December with only the southeast a little below normal. Fact is, east of the MISSISSIPPI this December will be a top 5 cold one in the last 50 years.

Thanks for reading. Ciao for now.

[John1122]

I am wondering if this is going to be an '89 or a '95.

In December of '89 it was absolutely frigid. Several nights of below zero around Christmas. One of the days I only had a high of 2 degrees with a low of -14. After New Years it blowtorched the rest of winter.

In 1995 I remember  December also being cold, La Nina peaked that year in December. January 1996 was very cold and snowy, so was February. After mid February it warmed up.

The difference in the two years was the strength of the Nina, but more importanly for East of the Mississippi weather, 95/96 featured a lot of -NAO.

I saw an article about -NAO in La Nina years since 1950 in Philly. Their temp averaged -1.5 below normal for -NAO Nina years.

In years without -NAO conditions and La Nina the temps are well above average. So I hope we can keep the NAO on the negative side through a lot of the winter.

[John1122]

The 12z GFS is a masterpiece for my area for this storm. Very good from the Eastern Highland Rim Eastward.

[Stovepipe]

The 12z GFS is a masterpiece for my area for this storm. Very good from the Eastern Highland Rim Eastward.

Yeah even the valley comes away with 3 inches or so if my eyeballs are not failing me.  Actually twisterdata.com is showing Knoxville on the line between 3 and 4.  Might be a December to remember!

[John1122]

Yeah even the valley comes away with 3 inches or so if my eyeballs are not failing me.  Actually twisterdata.com is showing Knoxville on the line between 3 and 4.  Might be a December to remember!

I was mainly looking at that track. It's about as good as it gets for us to get a good snowfall here. And I really think the GFS is underestimating the precip shield, is tends to do that with GOM lows. A LP moving from just S of New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle is going to have a much larger precip shield than what's beinging show there in my experience.

[Tom23]

Just this year, in early March, models were showing a good amount of snow for East/Middle Tn, but the track became unfavorable so we weren't supposed to see much snow at all.... the event comes, and there is more precip with it than the models were showing, so what John has said is correct. Also, just this last event showed that models kind of under estimate precip shields if the low is strong

[John1122]

It's been a December to remember, how often do you have 3 legitimate winter weather threats to track in a week around here?

It's exceedingly rare to get two in a week.

[dwagner88]

Just this year, in early March, models were showing a good amount of snow for East/Middle Tn, but the track became unfavorable so we weren't supposed to see much snow at all.... the event comes, and there is more precip with it than the models were showing, so what John has said is correct. Also, just this last event showed that models kind of under estimate precip shields if the low is strong

I remember this. I got three inches with a forecast for just flurries. I'm liking this storm. The twisterdata maps don't look too great for Chattanooga, but the low track is pretty much pefect, so the cold air should get pulled in with a north wind dragging across snow-covered areas. I will be watching this one closely.

[Stovepipe]

Joe Bastardi, in his latest "Big Dog" video, is confident that this weekends storm will nail the I-40 corridor from Arkansas all the way to Raleigh then up the coast.  "An axis of pretty good snow" he says.  Opinions of JB vary and he is often cocky and rather proud of himself, but I find he's usually not far off the mark.

[keithinala]

HSV is talking about signficant snow possible for Saturday if things work out right, and that's for us halfway between I40 and I20, so Joe may be right

Joe Bastardi, in his latest "Big Dog" video, is confident that this weekends storm will nail the I-40 corridor from Arkansas all the way to Raleigh then up the coast.  "An axis of pretty good snow" he says.  Opinions of JB vary and he is often cocky and rather proud of himself, but I find he's usually not far off the mark.

[jmundie]

NAM beginning to jump on board

[Clay]

NAM beginning to jump on board

The NAM has the low setting up further east than the GFS at the same hours.

[jmundie]

The NAM has the low setting up further east than the GFS at the same hours.

No. The NAM hasn't popped the surface low yet. Look at H5

12z GFS



And the NAM, same timeframe 18z



We've got similar set ups at h5, with the exception of the NAM placement of the ULL. You can see that the NAM has the ULL interacting with the southern stream where the precip is breaking out over southern arkansas. If GFS had the ULL in the same place, it be I40 snow to the max

[Tom23]

So with that, the Nam is on to a good snowstorm, even better than the Gfs, with the Ull interacting with southern stream energy. Looks like this one is another system that puts the Gfs/Nam against the Euro/Canadian... last time the models trended toward the Euro, so I'm not putting anything in the basket until the Euro agrees with these two.