Winter Teleconnection Thread and Tutorial

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Apps runner aren't good for East Tennesseans...

In general thats true but there are exceptions to any rule








But of course the Great Apps storm of 1950 is not your everyday Apps runner

[tennessee storm09]

yep, toot, that is totaly going against the grain for a apps runner my friend. that had to be a crazy storm

[Eric]

Good read by OHX concerning the AO and it's potential impacts this winter...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ohx&storyid=61485&source=0

[Curt]

The AO tanking again is amazing to me. 2 of the enseble members are just off the charts with the plunge. Neg NAO and a more pos PNA could mean winter fun mid month. Doesnt guarantee it though.

[John1122]

I like the looks of this forecast

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/12/new_research_points_to_cold_ja.html

[Mathman]

I like the looks of this forecast

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/12/new_research_points_to_cold_ja.html

I'm not sure I like it very much.  Assuming upper air winds roughly follow the temperature gradient shown, we will be dominated by a NW flow.  If this is true, the drought in West TN and AR will only get worse; and Mid and West TN get screwed snow-wise.

On the up-side, they are not predicting major deviation from normal in our area, so perhaps suppression won't be as big an issue.

Anyway... just one more Magic Eight-Ball to toss in with the rest. 

[Curt]

Keep reading some interesting things from mets on AmWx about state of ENSO this winter and in general in what appears to be a somewhat different climate from the 80's and 90's:

The best thing to do instead of throw out old rules is to use what you have learned and begin to develop amendments or new rules. Some signals were stronger in the 1980s/1990s than others. As we continue to head into different decadal swings, climate shifts etc. we are going to have to adjust. I agree that the golden era of simple ENSO climo for long range forecasting is over. But those that are well read and keep up will adjust and that's all we can ask for from anyone...that they are willing to continue to to be open minded and adapt.

from HM

"Throw out the old rules"...how interesting.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

"Throw out the old rules"...how interesting.

We certainly live in interesting times, thats for sure.

[Curt]

Quite the sight to see the majority of ensemble members tank the AO to near -5.0  to -6.0 before month's end.



NAO should go a tad positive followed by all members consistently dropping towards mid month.


PNA is just shy negative of neutral.

The potential exists for some good times winter wx wise, but its just potential. Reality is a whole other thing.

[bigalpha]

I know it's geared for Europe, but here's a neat article concerning NAO. 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1341618/Why-cold-Simple--North-Atlantic-Oscillation--got-bit-stuck.html

[toastido]

On an interesting note, and I can't post the image here because of RaleighWx's thingy, but the GFS has the NAO progged to go positive around the 22nd of this month... Could get interesting.

Correction.  The 06z had it that way.  The 12z says NO.

[jmundie]

Toast - At this point, I wouldn't bet on the NAO going positive until it actually goes positive.

Its like the opposite of the past, I don't know, 25 winters

Maybe you'll get some severe soon. Honestly, I kinda miss the outbreaks. The days when you step outside in the winter time, feel the 70 degree air with 60+ dewpoints and think to yourself .... uh oh.

[tennessee storm09]

yeah i love severe weather, yall ought to know by now. but the nao wont positive until the first week in february.

[Eric]

yeah i love severe weather, yall ought to know by now. but the nao wont positive until the first week in february.

By your prognostications a month ago, it should already be positive.   

[tennessee storm09]

By your prognostications a month ago, it should already be positive.   

i agree eric, i must admit. i busted big time big guy