Winter Teleconnection Thread and Tutorial

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Latest GFS and ensemble Teles

North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation is showing marked improvement as we get close to December...but still would like to see these drop on down from neutral like to negative like






Eastern Pacific Oscillation  is also showing marked improvement as we get close to December



Pacific North American Oscillation is showing major improvement from the horrible negative depths that it was once in




All of this is starting to hint at a major reconfiguration of the important indices that in theory could allow the longwave 500mb pattern over the conus to change to that of a more winterlike regime here in the eastern US. Thats a big step closer to where we snowlovers would like to be

[cd2play]

In y'alls opinion, what do you believe is the minimum criteria for a snow to be legit?  For instance, a quarter inch snow, technically, counts (one tenth inch is minimum measurable) but I don't really consider that "snow". 

[harlequin]

In y'alls opinion, what do you believe is the minimum criteria for a snow to be legit?  For instance, a quarter inch snow, technically, counts (one tenth inch is minimum measurable) but I don't really consider that "snow".

I consider 1 inch to be "legit." But that's just me. 2 or 3 inches satisfies me, except when nearby areas get dumped on or people well to the south get considerably more. And also when Atlanta gets more than me.

[Charles L.]

Personally...I get excited about even a dusting of snow. My most favorite season is winter, so anything to do with it I love.

[Coach B]

In y'alls opinion, what do you believe is the minimum criteria for a snow to be legit? 

Anything that closes school is legit. 

[Adam]

Anything that closes school is legit. 

That is like half an inch here lol.

[JayCee]

My standards are low living here.  If it falls from the sky, it's legit.   

[snowdog]

Nothing much coming down the pike to get excited about.  Looks like more of the same regime that has been in place all of fall (+NAO, +AO, -PNA).  I'd say it looks like seasonal to slighty above average temps for the 1st half of December. 

[Flash]

My man, Chris Bailey, says this is NOT the winter to rely on teleconnections, but it's hard to go with that. Just curious as to what you guys think about that notion...

[snowdog]

It's not like teleconnections are voodoo.  They are measured and calculated values.  Unless he is talking about the models having a hard time with the pattern thus making the long range teleconnections worthless, but that would be more the models are worthless and that is pretty much all we got for long range forecasting.