Thanksgiving Weekend Storm Potential

[WeatherRocker]

10m temps way too warm for snow...at least in west and mid TN areas.  Still time for a change, though.

I'm not gonna hold my breath.

[Adam]

I'm not gonna hold my breath.

If you did, youd be holding it for a long time/

[tennessee storm09]

models just keep pushing things back n back. i really think most people are grasping at straws and just hoping for a snow this time of year. i have been keeping up and watching weather for years now, history just isnt on our side for most of tennessee around thanksgiving or just beyond. in december chances go up some, but still not great. january and february is by far our best as most know. but unfortunetly thats when we will begin to feel the full effects of this nina. our windo of opportunity will be very narrow this year i am affraid.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

models just keep pushing things back n back. i really think most people are grasping at straws and just hoping for a snow this time of year. i have been keeping up and watching weather for years now, history just isnt on our side for most of tennessee around thanksgiving or just beyond. in december chances go up some, but still not great. january and february is by far our best as most know. but unfortunetly thats when we will begin to feel the full effects of this nina. our windo of opportunity will be very narrow this year i am affraid.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

After a long summer of basicly not following the models for anything. I have been following this timeframe for quite a while now, just to get myself re-familar with how the GFS handles things.

I must say the GFS has been consistent with the idea of a storm for this timeframe but it has been HORRIBLE with strength, track, temps etc. The trend that I have noticed the most so far with the gfs is a westward trend. Not our familar NW trend, just plain west.

Anyways I dont think the models are handiling anything to well right now, due to recent blocking patterns mostly. The GFS has backed off of a early winter for us as of now, but lets wait a couple of days, I bet that changes.

 I really dont see the NAO getting as far negative as forecasted without some truly cold air around here. We shall see

[John1122]

It may not snow with this one, but we are getting lots of rain. This should pretty much take me out of the fire danger category for the rest of fall I hope.


The GFS is advertising some major league cold for the end of the month. Wide spread highs in the 30s.

[jmundie]

18z NAM dropping 850s to below freezing over the area when the low passes by.

I wonder if we'll see any white stuff mix into the pouring rain?

[Adam]

It looks like a possiblility especially in the heavier convection. This will be very interesting to watch.

[Eric]

It looks like a possiblility especially in the heavier convection. This will be very interesting to watch.

I wouldn't look for anything more substantive that POSSIBLY a flurry or two.  Progged skew-Ts show a freezing column to 850, but warm to 35F at the surface on the back side of the low.  It looks like the 18z NAM wants to depict a cold-core low of sorts.  If THAT pans out, then lookout, but given the relatively warm temps, I'd say it's highly unlikely to pan out.  Plus, the 18z GFS shows no such monster, so we have zero model consensus.  Where have we heard that one before?   

[Adam]

The NAM and The GFS never seem to agree for some reason.

[Adam]

0z NAM still showing cold core low.

[Adam]

18z showing 540 line dipping into middle tennesse while moisture is still there.

[skillsweather]

tonight? or when?

[Eric]

18z showing 540 line dipping into middle tennesse while moisture is still there.

tonight? or when?

I wouldn't hold my breath.  The 18z NAM is the only model that's still showing sub-540 temps.  Looking at the 18z skew-T for BNA, H85 does appear to be below freezing, but below that, temps warm substantially to near 40F at the surface.  It's going to take ALOT of moisture to cool the column down enough for even the potential for frozen precip to be there.  Furthermore, it looks like the low is pulling out before the bulk of the cool air gets here.  I'm not buying this one, people.

[Thundersnow]

Standard one with colder air rushing in as moisture is departing, and the cold air isn't even that impressive.


It is chilly out there now with damp weather and temperatures in the 40s though.  That stiff wind doesn't help.