Thanksgiving Weekend Storm Potential

[Cyclonicjunkie]

GFS has been advertising this for the last few model runs, this will probably lock us into winter for the most part until January when the SE ridge really starts to torch us IMO. Anyway it looks nice on the GFS, I really haven't studied the other models yet (concerning this threat), and we all know that this will change to some degree (Hopefully colder and deeper). But as of right now it's showing the possibility for some snow for parts of TN, especially the plateau area.

Something worth watching IMO  

18zgfs NOV16

[Crockett]

That's an interesting look from the GFS. If I were a betting man (and it's a good thing I'm not or I would lose my shirt) I would bet against snow with this system, but I would agree with you about it locking in winter for a while. This could be the system that sets the stage for some interesting times ahead. Count me among those who think we have a better than average chance of seeing snow over the Thanksgiving holiday...

[Adam]

Im not betting against anything, im going to sit back and watch but ill I know is that the GFS has been showing this system with snow for us for a while.

[tennessee storm09]

if the 18z veriifies. i would be a little more worried about severe. there could be some backside light snow showers or flurries with the colder air behind the frontal passage.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

That's an interesting look from the GFS. If I were a betting man (and it's a good thing I'm not or I would lose my shirt) I would bet against snow with this system, but I would agree with you about it locking in winter for a while. This could be the system that sets the stage for some interesting times ahead. Count me among those who think we have a better than average chance of seeing snow over the Thanksgiving holiday...

Certainly is interesting and a bit el ninoishy

If this Noreaster (scenario) does verify I expect it to be a little colder than what is now modeled, and it wouldn't surprise me if another (NW flow/ Mtn snow) event sets up on the backside of this storm (simular to this weekends event). I fully agree with you on the Thanksgiving holiday timeframe.

[tennessee storm09]

Certainly is interesting and a bit el ninoishy

If this Noreaster (scenario) does verify I expect it to be a little colder than what is now modeled, and it wouldn't surprise me if another (NW flow/ Mtn snow) event sets up on the backside of this storm (simular to this weekends event). I fully agree with you on the Thanksgiving holiday timeframe.

i do think its this sytem thats sets the stage for something interseting later in late novemeber into december. then the torch begins in january with a full speed of pacific jet energy and  southeast ridgelaying a role. spring could n should come early.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

i do think its this sytem thats sets the stage for something interseting later in late novemeber into december. then the torch begins in january with a full speed of pacific jet energy and  southeast ridgelaying a role. spring could n should come early.

I dont know about that, I like the idea of a nice march snowstorm for us.

[tennessee storm09]

I dont know about that, I like the idea of a nice march snowstorm for us.

i hope you are right toot about a nice snow in march. i know in a nina pattern, it can offer us a late suprise or two.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

i hope you are right toot about a nice snow in march. i know in a nina pattern, it can offer us a late suprise or two.

True, Nina's are notorious for late snow surprises for us. I always seem to get better snows in March also.

But this is all pure speculation at this point.

[ajatwister]

wow the 0z really has us under the gun around the 20th, with mod. to heavy snow and temperatures dipping in the lower teens, with highs only in the 20s. We all know this WILL change though. however something tells me that we will see an accumulating snow for all of us this November.

[John1122]

I usually get accumulating snow pretty much every November and I've already gotten it this year. But rarely more than 1-2 inches at most.

[Tom23]

wow the 0z really has us under the gun around the 20th, with mod. to heavy snow and temperatures dipping in the lower teens, with highs only in the 20s. We all know this WILL change though. however something tells me that we will see an accumulating snow for all of us this November.

who knows maybe this will hold... only time will tell but I think this may just turn out to be backside cold with a few snow showers/flurries behind the nor'easter. But plenty of time for either my mind or the models to change on this one. Heres hoping the 0z comes to fruition!

[Thundersnow]

Ha... yeah, check out the 300 hours voodoo on last night's 0Z GFS:

[Crockett]

Yeah, well, the 6z says Northwest Trend...you'll take your back side snow showers and like it. 

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Not really seen all the earlier model runs, but the 18z has our Miller A, with a nice cold NW flow/snow event behind it, a little better than the last.