Early November Miller A?

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Don't worry mine does the same thing lol. But let me ask a question to you and anyone else who cares to answer....

What kind of snowfall is there being depicted on the models as of now?? I know that this will be weaker when it comes to pass or we won't have the right cold temps or something (it just doesn't seem right this early in a La Nina year, but other things effect the weather as I already stated).

It's WAY too early to be talking snowfall amounts, but I will just put the least amount that any of the globals are showing out there just for fun and let yall do all the speculating

[dwagner88]

I think that a trip to higher elevations may be warranted Friday afternoon. I don't have to work Friday either! If it gets cold enough maybe the local mountaintops can get something and I won't have to drive very far.

[Tom23]

I think that a trip to higher elevations may be warranted Friday afternoon. I don't have to work Friday either! If it gets cold enough maybe the local mountaintops can get something and I won't have to drive very far.

Sounds good to me... come and get me from school lol!!! Jp jp.

Cyclonic junkie, where can I find the Global snowfall maps like the one you just put up?? Looks like if thats the least amount, thats good enough for a first, early November snow for me! An inch around these parts this early is pretty good.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Sounds good to me... come and get me from school lol!!! Jp jp.

Cyclonic junkie, where can I find the Global snowfall maps like the one you just put up?? Looks like if thats the least amount, thats good enough for a first, early November snow for me! An inch around these parts this early is pretty good.

http://www.twisterdata.com/

[StormNine]

 Actually if you go off La Nina climatology it itself (which you shouldn't do)  Historically some of our best rare November and Early December storms have occurred during La Nina years.

1950-51 was a Moderate La Nina. While I don't expect anything like that to occur, La Nina isn't the only player in here. While I think we will get our blowtorches, and above average severe weather, there will also be winter threats, maybe not a great winter, maybe a horrible winter depends on how the other measurement index values go, but there will be still threats for something to happen. Whether that something happens or not is another story.

If there is enough moisture on the backside I could see at least a dusting not only on the mountains, but on the Plateau, but it is too far away to say for sure now. Backside side rain showers, with maybe a small flurry in the rain if you look at a microscope elsewhere for areas that don't have the elevation.

[Tom23]

http://www.twisterdata.com/

Thanks!

[jmundie]

wow. if the 12z canadian were to verfy, we'll be talking about this one for ages if for no other reason than it happened in the first week of november.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

MRX starting to come around to the snow Idea

. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SHORT WAVE TROF/CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHILE A MAJOR LEAGUE UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED INITIALLY BY AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEADING WAVE. THE TRAILING UPPER TROF DEEPENS
AS IT DIGS FARTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE UPPER TROF WILL NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS
WITH A NEVER ENDING SUPPLY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING SOUTH AND
EAST AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF. A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL ENSUE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN AND TEMPS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH CHARACTERISTIC UPSLOPE FLOW.

INITIALLY
IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL BE IN A POSITION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THEN THE COMBINATION OF
MODESTLY DEEP MOISTURE AND SHORT WAVE/OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND THE MOUNTAINS
BORDERING NORTH CAROLINA WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP FINALLY SHUTS
OFF AS THE UPPER TROF EDGES ONLY SLOWLY EAST. THEREFORE...MUCH OF
SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN SKY CONDITION WITH A
SLIGHTLY BETTER SUNDAY RETURNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES
THE EASTERN U.S.

This is my elevated local

Thursday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday: A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

[Tom23]

MRX starting to come around to the snow Idea

. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SHORT WAVE TROF/CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHILE A MAJOR LEAGUE UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED INITIALLY BY AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEADING WAVE. THE TRAILING UPPER TROF DEEPENS
AS IT DIGS FARTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE UPPER TROF WILL NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS
WITH A NEVER ENDING SUPPLY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING SOUTH AND
EAST AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF. A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL ENSUE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN AND TEMPS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH CHARACTERISTIC UPSLOPE FLOW.

INITIALLY
IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WILL BE IN A POSITION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THEN THE COMBINATION OF
MODESTLY DEEP MOISTURE AND SHORT WAVE/OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND THE MOUNTAINS
BORDERING NORTH CAROLINA WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE PRECIP FINALLY SHUTS
OFF AS THE UPPER TROF EDGES ONLY SLOWLY EAST. THEREFORE...MUCH OF
SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN SKY CONDITION WITH A
SLIGHTLY BETTER SUNDAY RETURNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES
THE EASTERN U.S.

This is my elevated local

Thursday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday: A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

So you think Mrx will eventually say that the valley will also get snowed on as long as the models continue to play out like they have, or do you think this is accurately depicting what the models are showing?

[Cyclonicjunkie]

So you think Mrx will eventually say that the valley will also get snowed on as long as the models continue to play out like they have, or do you think this is accurately depicting what the models are showing?

They are talking about the valley the way I interpret it.

 "WITH A NEVER ENDING SUPPLY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING SOUTH AND
EAST AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF. A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL ENSUE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN AND TEMPS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH CHARACTERISTIC UPSLOPE FLOW."

Now ^^that looks to be the GFS verbatim, keep in mind the GGEM and ECM has much more precip and would translate to much more snowfall, and IMO the ECM has been and usually is much more reliable.I dont want to hype things up, but i'm just calling it as I see it. 

This is Mtown just a few miles north of you.

Friday Night: A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday: A 10 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 50.



 

[Cyclonicjunkie]

wow. if the 12z canadian were to verfy, we'll be talking about this one for ages if for no other reason than it happened in the first week of november.

Yeah thats some storm the old canadian has 

[Tom23]

Yeah thats some storm the old canadian has 

Wow, things are already looking decent, but add the Canadian, and the trend may get even better for us. Come Wednesday, and its still talking snow for us, I think it'll then be time to embrace the idea. But I've seen that method fail too, so we just never know until day before/day of.

[Adam]

Yeah thats some storm the old canadian has 

How do you find the Canadian?

[jmundie]

How do you find the Canadian?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

[Adam]

Thanks but i still can't find which one it is.