Early November Miller A?

[John1122]

Accumulating snow isn't terribly uncommon in East Tennessee in November, especially once you gain some elevation. Also the biggest snowstorm in Knoxvile history, even bigger than the 1993 SuperStorm was in November.

I've saw accumulating snow in mid-October here about 2000 feet and accumulating snow widespread on Halloween here.

That said, we will see what this brings. My areas highest elevations have an NWS forecast of 30s with rain showers next week, the higher elevations in the Smokies are forecast to have rain/snow showers next week from the NWS.

[Tom23]

A TON of negativity going on about this La Nina stuff. People, don't you all know that the Nina isn't the only aspect that effects our snow?? True, it may not snow much, if at all, but if the only reason we're downcasting our snowfall is because the La Nina, then we obviously need to step back and look at NAO as well as other things that can influence our patterns. Com' on man!

[Adam]

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i cant remember a accumulating snow in november. so i dont look for one now. look for models tease us alot this winter. la nina will prevail

Just because theres never been an accumulating snow in November doesn't mean there won't be one. Im not saying there is going to be one im just saying that crazier things have happened.

[Adam]

A TON of negativity going on about this La Nina stuff. People, don't you all know that the Nina isn't the only aspect that effects our snow?? True, it may not snow much, if at all, but if the only reason we're downcasting our snowfall is because the La Nina, then we obviously need to step back and look at NAO as well as other things that can influence our patterns. Com' on man!

I agree.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

I dont think anyone has said anything about accumulating snow except for the mtns of east TN (I would like to add that some of the higher elevated mtns in TN have already seen their first accumulating snow). I dont know why the talk of an early NOV snowflake has brought out the "Raging Nina" comments?

The truth is, all three global models are showing some sort of snow somewhere in TN, mostly in the mtns. The ECM/GGEM favor phasing a monster trough with a southern stream shortwave, leading to a more western surface low/stormtrack, which would be deeper and put down some HEALTHY snowfall amounts in the mtns. The GGEM is the most extreme of the three models with regards of a phase, and snowfall amounts. But even the less extreme GFS has wrap around snow showers in east TN.

Right now I favor the ECM since it seems to be midground between the two extremes. If you live in the mountainous areas of TN/NC this bares watching for a signifigant event. I also can see the possibility of wrap around snow showers/flurries for the lower elevations of east and possibly middle TN, but not expecting any accumulations.


Toot

[Woodvegas]

10/31 0Z ECMWF, 6Z GFS, and 0Z GGEM all show a chance of snow in NE corner of TN this coming Friday/Saturday. Maybe we'll get lucky and get a few flakes here in Middle TN.

[Crockett]

I dont think anyone has said anything about accumulating snow except for the mtns of east TN (I would like to add that some of the higher elevated mtns in TN have already seen their first accumulating snow). I dont know why the talk of an early NOV snowflake has brought out the "Raging Nina" comments?

Exactly. Snowflakes in November are very common. In WKU's defense, maybe he was saying we won't see accumulating snow in mid November...in which case I would be inclined to agree that it's very unlikely for any area outside the mountains simply based on climatology alone. But to say we WON'T see snow (or even snow showers/flurries) in November because we're in a strong La Nina pattern is a dangerous statement.

I hope we don't have to see the phrases "severe weather" and "raging La Nina" thrown up every time the "s" word is mentioned this winter. This is the strongest La Nina of many of our lifetimes, but we can and will have several threats of wintry weather along the way. This winter will probably bring us more severe weather than normal and less wintry precipitation than normal, but we'll still have more threats of winter weather than we have threats of severe weather, so to simply dismiss snow chances by saying we're in a raging La Nina and severe weather is going to rule the day is disingenuous.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Joe Bastardi is really hyping this up  

SUNDAY 1 AM
GFS ONLY MODEL NOT PHASED NOW!

Thank goodness we will have only limited southern branch winter events this year... we dont need a year like last year with storms going off Jacksonville that come up. But we are seeing, at the least, that now. While all modeling, including the chief lollygagger in the southwest Euro ( usually the euro is good on the southern branch unless it originates in the northern branch ( splits off) as this system is.. the gfs is usually wrong no matter where its origin) is phasing the southern system, the GFS is still somehow dragging its heels until too late in the game. No model I see has what I think should happen, Tomas gets pulled up to at least participate, if not feed its low level heat into the eastern trough. Amazingly they did a monster trough, create a monster storm, but do so without Tomas getting directly involved. In other words, with or without Tomas, a big amplification is on the way!

The 00z Canadian is the most extreme, recreating the Nov 1950 storm ( late) and pulls up Tomas on the eastern side. The 990 mb storm it has near ORF Friday morning is over Cleveland Friday night..at 970 MB! Tomas on the eastern side near 40 n and 67.5 at 998 mb heading north toward Eastport MAine, a pinwheel. I think the major phasing will occur, entrain Tomas, or at least the heat from it. If the whole trough gets drawn into a northward moving Tomas, then it will be something not seen since Hazel of 1954.. an east coast hurricane pulling a major trough into it and becoming strongly extratropical. What should at least happen is the hurricane is pulled north on the eastern side of a monster of a storm and contributes heat for deepening, remember what happened when Wilma came up off shore,the western low south of New England went wild. In any case. it wont be 55 and PS in Pittsburgh on Friday... I like my call from last week, it will snow Thursday or Friday in Pittsburgh.. though I can say how much... I suspect at least the first measurable snow is in store for alot of folks on the west slopes of the Appalachians to the eastern lakes.. and I am talking all the way into the Carolinas for the mountains at the end of this.

Source is accuWX pro





He even compares the GGEM outcome to the "Great Appalachian storm of 1950" (superstorm)





In other news the GFS has started it's trend towards the ECM.

Look at these temps, 30's all the way into S FL. Very impressive for early NOV

[Crockett]

At the very least, things look pretty good for a few upslope snow showers for the western slopes of the Apps. Soundings from the 12z GFS support snow for the northern Cumberland Plateau and other areas in East Tennessee if we can manage to squeeze any moisture out of the atmosphere on Friday, so some snow flurries for parts of Tennessee outside the mountains certainly aren't out of the question. This may be early November and it may be a "raging" La Nina, but some areas above 2,500 ft. or so in the foothills of the Apps could easily get a dusting of snow out of this.

Friday looks like a raw day...temps maybe not getting out of the 30s during the day here on the plateau.

 

By the way, the largest single-day snowfall in November here in Oneida was 6". Nov. 3, 1966.

[Adam]

BTW NOAA is really holding off on these temps. You all are saying temps are going to be in the Fortys on Friday Noaa has us in the sixtys what is up with that?

[Kevin]

BTW NOAA is really holding off on these temps. You all are saying temps are going to be in the Fortys on Friday Noaa has us in the sixtys what is up with that?

The models have been very inconsistent the last few days. Add to that we're still a good 5-7 days out...NWS (or anybody for that matter) is not going to bite fully on this really unseasonable cool scenario yet.

BTW...will add that yes...IF the models are right...and they DO seem to be locking on this scenario for the moment...highs in the 40s and lows in 20s for much of the state will be possible.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

BTW NOAA is really holding off on these temps. You all are saying temps are going to be in the Fortys on Friday Noaa has us in the sixtys what is up with that?

As Kevin has already stated they were probably holding out due to the GFS, because it made more sense climatologically, (at least thats what I have been reading in some of the AFD's) but now the GFS has come more in line with the other models regarding the mega trough, and IMO even the globals are overdoing temps on the high side a little.

Phasing a Mega trough with a very deep app or coastal running surface low = Extreme cold. I would say they will gradually come around to colder temps as we get closer to this rare event. It's not everyday that we see a phasing storm like this and it's hard to swallow for this time of year. This is a storm simular to the 93 superstorm or the 96 blizzard in some regards.

Not saying the outcome will be the same as these other storms, but if it comes to fruit someone will get dumped on and they will probably be some records of some sort broke. Now they're is still plenty of time for all this to trend to something much weaker, and one shouldn't rule that out.

 Sorry for all this rambling but my blood gets to flowing when a storm like this comes along.

Toot

[Tom23]

As Kevin has already stated they were probably holding out due to the GFS, because it made more sense climatologically, (at least thats what I have been reading in some of the AFD's) but now the GFS has come more in line with the other models regarding the mega trough, and IMO even the globals are overdoing temps on the high side a little.

Phasing a Mega trough with a very deep app or coastal running surface low = Extreme cold. I would say they will gradually come around to colder temps as we get closer to this rare event. It's not everyday that we see a phasing storm like this and it's hard to swallow for this time of year. This is a storm simular to the 93 superstorm or the 96 blizzard in some regards.

Not saying the outcome will be the same as these other storms, but if it comes to fruit someone will get dumped on and they will probably be some records of some sort broke. Now they're is still plenty of time for all this to trend to something much weaker, and one shouldn't rule that out.

 Sorry for all this rambling but my blood gets to flowing when a storm like this comes along.

Don't worry mine does the same thing lol. But let me ask a question to you and anyone else who cares to answer....

What kind of snowfall is there being depicted on the models as of now?? I know that this will be weaker when it comes to pass or we won't have the right cold temps or something (it just doesn't seem right this early in a La Nina year, but other things effect the weather as I already stated).

[Charles L.]

I agree and a very broad one also,  I am pretty confident that the mtns will see a nice accumulating snow with this system. I am also thinking  some snow showers/flurries on the backside in the lower elevations of NE TN due to a NW flow event that sets up. Going to get cold on the backside of this one


Toot

Before I get burned at the stake I was talking middle TN. Yes the mountains have a great shot at seeing accumulating snow...should have clarified that a little better.

[Adam]

So if this phaser does work out are you saying that we could actually see snow in my neck of the woods. Not accumulating but any snow at all?