Early November Miller A?

[Curt]

Last nights long term GFS is mighty interesting pattern wise with a nice cold shot coming in mid November with some flurries and snow showers even in the lowlands. Now take this FWIW....a change to colder temps likely with highs in 40's and low 50's. Sounds like its getting close to firing up some hot chocolate.

[jmundie]

12z Candian showed possibility of snow or rain/snow mix at hour 144.

Obviously bunk, but interesting nonetheless

[Curt]

Highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s(outside the UHI) not out of the question by next weekend. We should see some nice steady cool rains with temps in the 50s mid week.

[Adam]

Highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s(outside the UHI) not out of the question by next weekend. We should see some nice steady cool rains with temps in the 50s mid week.

Cool rains more like freezing. That would be really cold. It also seems like that we are actually starting to get storm systems through here about every week so that is good too,

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Euro has changed and came inland with it's stormtrack. All models still are not showing much in the way of consistency.


I'm starting to think the canadian may not be that far fetched, but the latest GGEM has some sort of fantasy/superstorm/phaser/



Not likely but sure is nice to look at

[Curt]

AFD from MEG....fun week ahead to check on model consistency GFS vs EURO/CMC. Is MEG hinting at something here?  

CONSISTENCY HAS TAKEN YET ANOTHER INTERESTING TURN WITH RESPECT TO
HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES BEYOND THIS POINT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SHOW A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GULF WHICH IS EVENTUALLY INFLUENCED BY
THE TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND IS KICKED OUT EASTWARD ACROSS
FLORIDA. THE CANADIAN CONTINUES TO SHOW A MUCH MORE INTERESTING
SCENARIO IN WHICH THE CUT OFF LOW INTERACTS WITH A MUCH DEEPER
AND FURTHER WEST ORIENTED TROUGH...CAUSING A SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TREK FROM THE GULF NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GFS CAMP...BUT NOW IS
QUITE SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN AND FAVORS A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH
SCENARIO. FAVORED THE LATTER SCENARIO...SO BREEZY AND VERY COOL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AS 500 MB THICKNESSES
DROP TO AROUND 530

btw...not hinting at a snow storm, but a really cool storm nonetheless with rain and a nice cold shot behind. love to watch big storms from the gulf rather than the GFS forecasted pesky upper low meandering around.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

The snow weenie in me is starting to get excited for this winter. 


Thats a big dog of a storm that the 12z ECM/GGEM has. Would not surprise me if somewhere in the eastern US really gets dumped on. Let the model watching begin

[Tom23]

lol snow possibilities in the nmiddle of November?? Wasn't that supposed to occur with an El Nino, and not a La Nina?? Seems like this year may be more interesting for us in regards to snow than last if this is a preview haha

[Charles L.]

lol snow possibilities in the nmiddle of November?? Wasn't that supposed to occur with an El Nino, and not a La Nina?? Seems like this year may be more interesting for us in regards to snow than last if this is a preview haha

We will not see snow in mid November, we have a full raging La Nina that has common analogs like 2007-2008 and 1973-1974. Severe weather will be the name of the game this winter and into spring...

[Cyclonicjunkie]

HPC's thoughts on this system

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
329 PM EDT SAT OCT 30 2010
 
VALID 12Z TUE NOV 02 2010 - 12Z SAT NOV 06 2010
 



WHILE AN EXTREME SOLUTION...THE CANADIAN HAD BEEN CONSISTENT THE
PAST 4 RUNS IN AMPLIFYING THE ENERGY TOPPING THE WRN CANADIAN
RIDGE FAR S AND W ALONG 90W LONGITUDE. WE MADE A SIGNIFICANT WWD
ADJUSTMENT OF THE STORM TRACK FOR LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG THE E
COAST. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO VINDICATE OUR DECISION AS ITS
SOLUTION TURNED OUT OT BE SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE
CANADIAN!     

12Z GUIDANCE REMAINED S FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED OVER THE ERN PAC/WRN
NOAM FOR THE DAYS 3-5 PERIOD....FEATURING A STRENGTHENING WRN NOAM
RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP UPSTREAM TROF OVER THE PAC.  GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF MAY BE EXAGGERATED WITH
ITS DEGREE OF FLOW SEPARATION LEADING TO FAST PROGRESSION ACROSS
SRN CANADA AND A SLOW CUTOFF SOLN WITH SRN ENERGY WELL OFF CA NEXT
WEEKEND.  HOWEVER...THE NEW ECMWF IS STICKING TO ITS GUNS IN ITS
TREATMENT OF THAT SYS...SO OUR CONFIDENCE IN ITS SOLUTION NEXT
WEEKEND IS HIGHER.

SO THIS FINAL UPDATE IS LOOKING FOR A MAJOR HEAVY PCPN IN THE E
COAST STATES BEGINNING ON THU. RAIN COULD CHANGE TO SN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYS WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. 

FLOOD

[Woodvegas]

10/30 12Z ECMWF does show a pretty cold shot with precip next Friday. Looks like cold rain to me right now...would need to be 6-7F degrees colder than progged before we could talk about snow.

[Adam]

We will not see snow in mid November, we have a full raging La Nina that has common analogs like 2007-2008 and 1973-1974. Severe weather will be the name of the game this winter and into spring...

Very bold statement! Don't shoot down the idea yet, you never know this is Tennessee.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Very bold statement!

I agree and a very broad one also,  I am pretty confident that the mtns will see a nice accumulating snow with this system. I am also thinking  some snow showers/flurries on the backside in the lower elevations of NE TN due to a NW flow event that sets up. Going to get cold on the backside of this one


Toot

[Crockett]

We will not see snow in mid November, we have a full raging La Nina that has common analogs like 2007-2008 and 1973-1974. Severe weather will be the name of the game this winter and into spring...

 

[tennessee storm09]

-
i cant remember a accumulating snow in november. so i dont look for one now. look for models tease us alot this winter. la nina will prevail