drought getting bad

[tennessee storm09]

i think people are overlooking this drought to some degreee beacuse its a little cooler and were not in the mist of summer anymore, but man its getting bad and its not looking like its going to get any better anytime soon. i know it rained in a few places a wek ago or so, but 80 percent of places didnt recieve nada.looks like this ridge just keeps pushing evrything way to our north which is a typical early la nina pattern. also still dont see any signs of really colder air coming down soon either. temps keep bouncing back to the 80s periodically. hopefully by end of the month things can change some. but time will tell, hopefully this ridge can bulge to some degree and we can break the pattern some. proably going to take a big severe system to do that. beside this dry weather is killing my sinus and allergies here is to getting some rain soon.

[Adam]

We were really bad but we got rain both nights Tuesday and Wensday. Good ones too.

[dwagner88]

We have a 12 inch deficit here. The SE and NW corners have been the driest parts of the state so far this year. We didn't get much from the big rains in May, and we are paying for it now. Even five months later, you can really see where the floods occurred on the year to date departure from normal precip map. You can also clearly see the areas that are hurting badly for rain:
=0&layer[]=1&layer[]=4&timetype=RECENT&loctype=STATE&units=engl&timeframe=year2date&product=dep_normal&loc=stateTN]http://water.weather.gov/precip/index_nonjs.php?layer[]=0&layer[]=1&layer[]=4&timetype=RECENT&loctype=STATE&units=engl&timeframe=year2date&product=dep_normal&loc=stateTN

Well that link didn't work exactly right, but if you select year to date, TN, and departure from normal on the bottom, you will see what I'm talking about.

[Curt]

Severe drought in the state nearly quadrupled in size in one week. Mild to Mod drought really overtaking much of mid and west state, se tennesee.

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_state.htm?TN,S

[toastido]

It's worse here in AL.  A LOT worse.  Most of the state is in Moderate to Severe drought, with parts of the state in EXTREME drought.  And to make matters worse, our next shot at rain is overnight Tuesday, with only ~30%, at best.  Lots of wildfire problems for us lately, too.    Ugh.

[Curt]

Pattern Change ahead? Looks likely...

A PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE SCALE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
NATION AND MOVES EAST. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING INCREASINGLY WET
AND STORMY WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE ENHANCED RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL
CHANGES TO MODEL RUNS BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. STILL THERE APPEARS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE ONGOING MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.

[Kevin]

Looks like Memphis will at least get a little rain this afternoon...not a drought buster by any means but could approach a tenth of an inch...which would break the string of now 57 consecutive days of no rain at or greater than a tenth of an inch. In that time...only 0.14" of rainfall total has been recorded at Memphis.

The 57 straight days without rainfall at/above .1" set a record for the longest such stretch. The previous record was 55 days...set back in 1953...so technically the record was broken on Sunday.

[StormNine]

Drought Outlook just got very nasty.  We now have widespread D2 and "Gulp" D3 Extreme Drought(the second worst drought rating) in Western Kentucky and Western Tennessee.  D2 is even spreading into Western Middle TN, With D1 drought in Middle, and Southeastern TN.

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_state.htm?TN,S
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_state.htm?TN,S

Also for MS,AL,AR
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_state.htm?AR,S
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_state.htm?MS,S
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_state.htm?AL,SE 

[Kevin]

WMC out of Memphis is reporting at least 3 "massive" grass fires have broken out in Fayette County in the Highway 196 and 193 area, just across the Shelby County Line from Eads. No indication that any structures have been affected at this time...

[Curt]

WMC out of Memphis is reporting at least 3 "massive" grass fires have broken out in Fayette County in the Highway 196 and 193 area, just across the Shelby County Line from Eads. No indication that any structures have been affected at this time...

I can verify this by the large plume of smoke and haze just towards the south today.

[Kevin]

I can verify this by the large plume of smoke and haze just towards the south today.

WHBQ reported just a few minutes ago that 500 acres have burned...honestly that is relatively small compared to the typical wildfire you hear about but certainly noteworthy enough. Some of the flames have neared a couple of property lines...but still no structures burned. Sounded as if most of it is now under control.

Fortunately the rain will be coming just about in time before things could get more out of hand since again this is really the first fire in the region that has been a notable one. Critical fire conditions look to peak tomorrow afternoon so hopefully the situation will remain contained and people responsible. If we can get an inch...or even two...in the next week that will add enough moisture to the soils to bring down the fire danger a nice bit for a while...even if it doesn't greatly help the overall drought.

Here's an image from earlier this afternoon from WMC's website...

[Curt]

DP's on the rise...big time in Arkansas. The western part if AR is well into the 60's. Once they advect this way, the fire danger should lessen. Really praying that big blob of rain in North TX can advect this way too

[Kevin]

DP's on the rise...big time in Arkansas. The western part if AR is well into the 60's. Once they advect this way, the fire danger should lessen. Really praying that big blob of rain in North TX can advect this way too

Its going to be a close call this afternoon as to whether RH's fall below 25% (which is the Red Flag criteria)...as higher DP's slowly move in all while temperatures will rise into the 80s. We'll see...it may largely depend on the amount of sun which will affect eventual high temperatures...if we can make it to the mid 80s like yesterday we'll probably hit the 25% mark (it was as low as 15% yesterday with DP's in the 30s). Wind criteria may be tough to hit too...its 18 mph for TN (though only 14 mph for AR and 15 mph for MS) which may only happen in gusts.

[Curt]

Not a drought buster, but just what the doctor ordered with a little thunder and lightning to boot.

[Kevin]

Already 1.25" recorded at KMEM...