*MAJOR* HURRICANE Earl

[toastido]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 23 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 1025 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN

[toastido]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 23 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED HURRICANE DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 1320 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN

[Charles L.]

Make that 90% chances now...models have been consistent in showing this invest turn into Earl...but then after that it gets less consistent (of course).

[toastido]

Near 100% now..

1. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND IS NOW
MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED ON
THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR
100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS

[toastido]

Hello, TD 7.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 251433
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
1100 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 30.8W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[toastido]

Oh, Hi Earl.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 252029
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
500 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010

...EARL...THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF CLIMATOLOGY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 32.2W
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.2 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.  THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS KEEPING THE CYCLONE
OVER THE WATERS OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[toastido]

Meanwhile, Earl is growing, too.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 262048
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
500 PM AST THU AUG 26 2010

...EARL GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 38.8W
ABOUT 1620 MI...2610 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.8 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND EARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[toastido]

Earl is growing stronger.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 280846
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
500 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...EARL STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 50.1W
ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS
...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND
ST. EUSTATIUS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.1 WEST.  EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR.  A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EARL COULD APPROACH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND EARL
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
BY SUNDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

[Charles L.]

Last night I was watching Justin Bruce's segment and he talked about Earl and said it would bring no US impacts, I cringed when he said that because I still think Earl is going to bring, at least, swells and rip current threat to the US...and could potentially bring some strong winds.

He did say Fiona is a more likely threat and since we aren't a coastal city...he can make predictions like this because we won't be directly influenced by either one of these storms.

[toastido]

Last night I was watching Justin Bruce's segment and he talked about Earl and said it would bring no US impacts, I cringed when he said that because I still think Earl is going to bring, at least, swells and rip current threat to the US...and could potentially bring some strong winds.

He did say Fiona is a more likely threat and since we aren't a coastal city...he can make predictions like this because we won't be directly influenced by either one of these storms.

I still think Earl could affect the East coast.. It's moving almost due West at a pretty good clip now, and getting better organized/stronger as it does..

[StormNine]

 At this juncture Earl should at least cause some swells/rip currents.  Even Danielle looks to cause that and she is on the other side of Bermuda.  If it continues to trend west, the coast of NC/SC/SE VA may get a little too close to Earl's company.  As it stands now the East Coast esp. from the Virginia Beaches to GA/SC border, and Bermuda both need to watch Earl. The potential for Earl's girl to form behind and just to the south of Earl, could cause issues.

[Charles L.]

The NHC had to do a special advisory to upgrade Earl to hurricane status. RECON found flight level winds to cause the upgrade. Earl is still moving westward at 18 mph though...

[toastido]

The NHC had to do a special advisory to upgrade Earl to hurricane status. RECON found flight level winds to cause the upgrade. Earl is still moving westward at 18 mph though...

Yep.  Path estimates still show a VERY close call for the Eastern seaboard.  If not a hit due to track variance. 

000
WTNT32 KNHC 291455
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...EARL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 58.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.  A
HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.  EARL IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER PUERTO
RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

[Charles L.]

The outer banks of NC really is in a bad situation...Even if it misses them to the east, they could still get TS force winds and some coastal flooding.

[toastido]

Check this out. (attached image)  Truly outrageous. Counter Clockwise from top left:  Danielle, Earl, 97L, ?