2010-2011 Winter weather outlook for Tennessee.

[Tom23]

Come on Winter! This dang cool snap we've had has made me want it even more.. Needless to say, I'm back on here for a while once again. Hope you all enjoy the 'insight' I bring lol just playing.

[tennessee storm09]

good to see you back from hibernation tom. this winter could get intersting. definetly going to be a la nina winter mod -strong at that. lest hope we can get it east based and a - nao will help. but dont look for long sustained cold plenty of severe weather chances , possible ice storm chance higher than usual and perhaps we can ink out a good snow or two. but overall above average temps.

[Tom23]

good to see you back from hibernation tom. this winter could get intersting. definetly going to be a la nina winter mod -strong at that. lest hope we can get it east based and a - nao will help. but dont look for long sustained cold plenty of severe weather chances , possible ice storm chance higher than usual and perhaps we can ink out a good snow or two. but overall above average temps.

Thank you for the welcome Tennesseestorm. I think this Winter will be interesting, exciting, and kind of heartbreaking at times. With temps swinging as much as they are projected to do, it'll lead the models all over the place until 3 days to the event. Wouldn't be surprised if a historic snow event was shown, and then it turn out to be a heavy rain, or even an Ice Storm, 3 days before it happened.

But Winter is coming, lets hope for the best and think of the worst.

[Adam]

Thank you for the welcome Tennesseestorm. I think this Winter will be interesting, exciting, and kind of heartbreaking at times. With temps swinging as much as they are projected to do, it'll lead the models all over the place until 3 days to the event. Wouldn't be surprised if a historic snow event was shown, and then it turn out to be a heavy rain, or even an Ice Storm, 3 days before it happened.

But Winter is coming, lets hope for the best and think of the worst.

I don't know about three days tom more like a day. But I don't think the models can get as worse as they were last year.

[Tom23]

I don't know about three days tom more like a day. But I don't think the models can get as worse as they were last year.

lol definitely have to agree here. The supposed 6-8 inch event in early January turned out to be a meager 2 inches; the 12 inch event at the end of January turned out to be a slushy 4 inches. And this is just the first month lol. Hopefully the models get better predictions this year, but that may be hoping too much.

[StormNine]

Lets not forget about the Memphis, West TN area surprise last February as well. When the models showed a mostly to all rain event, and it turned out to be 6 to 8 inches of snow before it changed to rain.

[Adam]

Lets not forget about the Memphis, West TN area surprise last February as well. When the models showed a mostly to all rain event, and it turned out to be 6 to 8 inches of snow before it changed to rain.

Exactly We got about that much ^6 inches in northern Lawrenceburg last year.

[John1122]

lol definitely have to agree here. The supposed 6-8 inch event in early January turned out to be a meager 2 inches; the 12 inch event at the end of January turned out to be a slushy 4 inches. And this is just the first month lol. Hopefully the models get better predictions this year, but that may be hoping too much.

It's amazing how much difference 10 or 20 miles makes in East Tennessee. I had my best winter since the 1970s here in Campbell County. We had around 40 inches of snow last winter. 10-20 miles south of here probably didn't crack 12 total for the winter.

The strangest event was probably in December when we had extremely heavy wet snow for hours when it switched to rain or was all rain in pretty much every direction from Campbell Co. I had almost 8 inches of snow from that one alone.

The late January storm stayed all snow here and I ended up with 12 inches. I was surprised it switched to ZR even in places like Crossville.

[Crockett]

It's amazing how much difference 10 or 20 miles makes in East Tennessee. I had my best winter since the 1970s here in Campbell County. We had around 40 inches of snow last winter. 10-20 miles south of here probably didn't crack 12 total for the winter.

The strangest event was probably in December when we had extremely heavy wet snow for hours when it switched to rain or was all rain in pretty much every direction from Campbell Co. I had almost 8 inches of snow from that one alone.

The late January storm stayed all snow here and I ended up with 12 inches. I was surprised it switched to ZR even in places like Crossville.

John, which area of Campbell County are you in? That December event was a wild one. We kept getting reports of heavy snow EAST of us in Campbell County, which is usually a tad warmer than us, and we were still rain...even at higher elevations than where it was snowing over there. It was as though a pocket of cold air got trapped in Campbell County. We started getting reports from THP troopers of heavy snow on the Scott-Campbell line along Hwy. 63 and one of the troopers was sending me pix from his phone of whiteout conditions with a multi-car pileup. Meanwhile we stayed rain here for the most part, before changing over to a brief period of heavy snow at the end.

The January event was good for about 8 inches in Oneida, though there were areas in the eastern part of Scott County reporting about what you got.

[John1122]

I live near Pioneer. So pretty close to Scott county. I live at close to 1800 feet in elevation, that makes a huge difference some days in snowfall totals. They decline rapidly as you head down in elevation and south. I've saw 8 inches here, 4 inches in Caryville, an inch in Lake City and just rain/snow by the time you hit the Clinch river bridge.

I used to work in West Knoxville and many a day I left there with heavy cold rain falling only to have it change to snow right around the Campbell Co line and be accumulating pretty well by the time you hit Caryville area.

That December event was wild, it usually is more uniform in the snow lines. It will usually be snowing here, Oneida, and say Speedwell pretty uniformly. That day it snowed heavily here and rained/snowed in both those areas. My uncle who lives in Speedwell didn't believe me when I called him and asked how much snow he had. He barely got an inch before it switched to rain there.

 It was extremely wet snow, the temp was 33-34 while it was falling and it poured half dollar to silver dollar sized flakes for hours. It wreaked havok on the power lines here. My power was out for 3 days. Had it been slightly less wet we'd have managed 12-15 inches. The liquid from it was almost 2 inches.

[Tom23]

I wish I was in a higher elevation near the KY state line, they seem to always get tons of snow. Looking forward to hearing John's analysis this Winter

[StormNine]

In that February event, we got 5 to 6 inches of some of the most beautiful wet snow ever.  Too bad I had a sinus infection/cold at the same time that event went on, but we got some awesome pictures, that I believe I posted back on that thread.  I remember only being winter weather advisories in Western Kentucky, and then waking up and finding winter storm warnings, and wondering what happened.  Then at that time I realized what went on in Memphis, and Northern Mississippi, and Southern Mid TN, and NW Alabama.

[StormNine]

One thing I notice, is that typically the tracks of storms that late summer/fall storms take, is usually a track that storms in the winter could take. With that being said, I do think there is potential for some nor'easter type tracks this winter during -NAO times. Along with the typical La Nina tracks of panhandle hooks/colorado lows(probably later in the winter)/ and lake cutters, and western tier Appalachian Runners.

[bigalpha]

Tom - I know CKV didn't fare nearly as well as most other places over the winter.

[Cyclonicjunkie]

Hello all, I am brand new to this forum and I know you guys dont know me from Adam, but I am going to get straight to my winter forecast if you guys dont mind, because it is that time of year. Don't take this too serious because I am a amateur but here goes.


Unlike some Nina years, this one developed quick so Nina impacts should be felt by December. Therefore, the southeast ridge will be our enemy. However, we should be in a solidly -NAO by December, so the southern appalachians could do well early in the winter. A Ohio Valley-Apps runner storm track should be the norm although I wouldn't rule out a coastal runner or three during the times when the SE ridge breaks down and it will, so areas deeper south cant totally rule out a good snowstorm, but areas further south and east are going to be the main areas that the SE ridge will keep everything mostly warm and dry IMO. But for early winter I expect something simular to the current pattern with the ridge gradually building in and by Febuary it will be in full blowtorch mode. Now for the midsouth I fully expect some Severe wx and Ice storms this winter and areas that is notorious for CAD could see quite a bit of ice this winter.

Here is my winter forecast map and comments good or bad and questions will be appreciated

Thanks

Toot