The Century Club

[mempho]

I for one am glad to see this summer go,

Ahhh, but it never really left.  The calender changed and it retreated right on que for a small moment in time, but then it decided to come back in and ignore "the rules."  Summer has moved back in and reinforced its strongholds on the newly-conquered territories of September.  The only question now is whether it will be emboldened by its current victories and attempt to seize the regions of October and, if so, will such an advance be successful against the even stronger defenses of the October regime. 

[Curt]

Ahhh, but it never really left.  The calender changed and it retreated right on que for a small moment in time, but then it decided to come back in and ignore "the rules."  Summer has moved back in and reinforced its strongholds on the newly-conquered territories of September.  The only question now is whether it will be emboldened by its current victories and attempt to seize the regions of October and, if so, will such an advance be successful against the even stronger defenses of the October regime. 

I know, we are darn close to 100 right now. Silver lining? Dp's in the 50's and lower nighttime temps. Go away summer!!!!

[toastido]

Go away summer!!!!

I second that motion.

[tennessee storm09]

i am affraid summer isnt going to go away easily this year. heck everytime we get a break its very short lived and the ridge bounces right back. at least we have low dps, that makes the nights hours bearable at least.

[Kevin]

Memphis International Airport has broken another record...with a high of 99 degrees at 1:47 PM...breaking the record of 98 in 2005. This is the third day in a row of record temperatures for Memphis, and it appears another 2 to 4 potentially on tap with record highs "only" 95 for the rest of the week. 95 or better looks all but certain both Tomorrow and Wednesday, and very possible on Thursday and Friday.

FWIW...though its probably unlikely given the 1:47 PM occurrence of the 99 high (meaning it hasn't been back to 99 in the nearly 2 hours since)...should 100 occur Today it would be the latest occurrence of such on record...beating the record set on September 16, 1980 when 102 degrees was reached.

Memphis certainly looks on track at this point...unless we have a very cool remainder of the year...to have the warmest year on record. Especially amazing given the quite cold start.

Good news...a more sustained break is looking more likely (earlier models were more uncertain) in the 7-14 day period. Still...temperatures will only be going back to around average...nothing "cool" relative to normal looks likely anytime soon.

[Kevin]

Memphis has reached 100 degrees for the 4 PM Observation. Officially latest 100 degree reading on record for the city...

[mempho]

Memphis has reached 100 degrees for the 4 PM Observation. Officially latest 100 degree reading on record for the city...

We are truly privileged to live in these historic times.   

[snowdog]

We are truly privileged to live in these historic times.   

For those of us who love cold, it seems we never get historic cold or historic snow.  But historic heat...it seems every year just breaks the records from a few years past. 

[Crockett]

For those of us who love cold, it seems we never get historic cold or historic snow.  But historic heat...it seems every year just breaks the records from a few years past. 

Algore read your post with a wink and a nod. 

[mempho]

For those of us who love cold, it seems we never get historic cold or historic snow.  But historic heat...it seems every year just breaks the records from a few years past. 

'Tis true.  I hold some hope that we might have a severe and brutal few weeks of winter this year since it's La Nina.  I have been disappointed many times before, though.

[Curt]

And the winds of change have just blown through the Memphis area...northerly winds and we should now...hopefully, hopefully...retire this thread.

[tennessee storm09]

to have a severe cold winter in a la nina pattern is kind of going against the odds i am affraid.

[mempho]

to have a severe cold winter in a la nina pattern is kind of going against the odds i am affraid.

Depends on how you define a "severe cold winter" and it also depends on the NAO.

In a nutshell, the best word for La Nina winters is "volatile" and volatility can be good for winter lovers in this area of the country simply because "normal" and even slightly below normal temperatures don't cut it.

In terms of DJF average temps as a whole, your statement is more or less correct.  However, for those who look for a magical 2-5 week period with lots of snow and some severe cold in order to call the winter a success, a La Nina, combined with a -NAO, has historically produced the most successful results of all combinations.  La Ninas, however, featuring a predominately +NAO have been abysmal failures.

In the La Nina thread, we break it down, but the best winters in terms of DJF snowfall since the index has been recorded have been those featuring this La Nina, -NAO combination and the best of the best featured this concurrence with a solar minimum.

In this area of the country, 1 week with heavy snow and a deep freeze is a very successful winter.  2 weeks is a raging success.

I, for one, don't think of the most memorable winters in terms of average temperatures.  I think of them in terms of the big snows and prolonged big negative temp anomalies.  In short, I'll take 2 weeks of -10 to -15 anomalies with heavy snow in the heart of winter with blowtorches on both ends over a prolonged -5 anomaly over the full DJF period.  Temps in the low '40s are -5 anomalies and they don't produce much exciting weather.  The exciting weather is going from blowtorch severe to snow to severe cold and back to blowtorch severe....and this is the excitement that can be provided by La Nina if the NAO cooperates this winter. 

[tennessee storm09]

but the main kicker in a la nina pattern is going to be the storm track. you got to consider that. 90 percent of the time the storm track will be to our north west duriing a la nina. going to be hard to get very much cold air drawn into a system with that track. keep a eye on that as winter unfolds later.

[Curt]

but the main kicker in a la nina pattern is going to be the storm track. you got to consider that. 90 percent of the time the storm track will be to our north west duriing a la nina. going to be hard to get very much cold air drawn into a system with that track. keep a eye on that as winter unfolds later.

Need to elaborate here tnstorm more than just make a statement. but can we please move this to the winter thread?