The Century Club

[Curt]

Me no likey...

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
NEXT WEEK. BECAUSE THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE HAS BEEN REAL
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE RELIABILITY OF THIS MODEL IN
THE EXTENDED...AND THE GFS TENDENCY TO BREAK DOWN RIDGES TOO QUICKLY
/REFERENCE THE LAST HALF OF JUNE/...I CONTINUED TO SIDE BY THE ECMWF
FOR THE LONG TERM BUT DID NOT JUMP COMPLETELY ON BOARD. THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE EURO HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING EXTREMELY HOT
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
DUE TO 850 MB TEMPS OF 24-25C AND 925 MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30S
C...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON THE MODEL RANGE FROM 101 TO AS HIGH AS
107 BY NEXT THURSDAY...OR NEARING ALL TIME TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
IT IS STILL A WEEK AWAY AND DON/T WANT TO SPLIT HAIRS THIS FAR
OUT...BUT RUN AFTER RUN HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS WHICH IS CONCERNING.
BUMPED UP HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
NEAR 100 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

IF THE MODEL IS INDEED CORRECT REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ARE A REALLY GOOD
BET CONSIDERING LAST MONTH MEMPHIS HAD 15 DAYS AOA 95 DEGREES AND
JONESBORO HAD 17. THIS HAS LEFT THINGS QUITE DRY...ALLOWING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO HEAT UP MORE.

[toastido]

Me no likey...

I assume that's for MEG, and not OHX?

[Curt]

I assume that's for MEG, and not OHX?

Yup sorry about that. If this comes to fruition, my bet is OHX and MRX are not far behind.

[toastido]

Yup sorry about that. If this comes to fruition, my bet is OHX and MRX are not far behind.

I hear ya.  I've heard rumors of BMX being listed at 107 for their possible high on Tuesday the 6th... If that's the case, it's quite likely that HUN will also break the century mark.

[dwagner88]

I hear ya.  I've heard rumors of BMX being listed at 107 for their possible high on Tuesday the 6th... If that's the case, it's quite likely that HUN will also break the century mark.

Blech. Thankfully I'm leaving for a weeklong beach trip on Saturday. I haven't seen anything about temps that hot on the SC coast. Most forecasts say upper 80's on the beach, lower 90's inland with the usual chance of afternoon thundershowers. Maybe the heatwave will be over by the time I get back.

Right now, MRX has Chattanooga in the low 90's all week next week. We'll see if that changes.

[Kevin]

GFS and ECMWF couldn't be much further apart...GFS suggests a cloudy damp Next Thursday with temperatures in the low 80s! ECMWF meanwhile suggests highs perhaps well within the triple digits! EC hasn't shown a reason to be doubted yet however with handling the ridge so far this season...so I'm with MEG on this one as of right now. With the continued dry pattern combined with much higher 850mb temperatures and 500mb heights vs a couple of weeks ago...100+ would seem an easy bet with this heat wave should it come to fruition as advertised by the Euro.

[Curt]

And here is a taste of whats to come in the next few days compliments of the recent rain and high pressure nosing eastward. Get a load of these dewpoints!

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
OKLAHOMA CITY  MOSUNNY   94  80  64 S8        29.82F HX 113
OKC-WILEY POST SUNNY     94  77  57 S8        29.82S HX 108
OKC-TINKER AFB MOSUNNY   93  79  62 SE9       29.83S HX 110
STILLWATER       N/A     96  79  57 S12       29.80S HX 114
GUTHRIE        SUNNY     96  78  56 S10       29.80S HX 112
$$

OKZ008-055-060-070-132100-
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
TULSA          PTSUNNY   94  79  61 SE14G20   29.80F HX 111
PONCA CITY     SUNNY     94  77  57 S9G18     29.79F HX 108
MUSKOGEE       MOSUNNY   91  79  67 S10       29.85F HX 107
BARTLESVILLE   MOSUNNY   93  79  63 S12       29.81S HX

[Kevin]

Hopefully we should escape those dewpoints as our base dewpoints with the heavily saturated grounds are still between 72 and 75. The continued evapotranspiration should help keep temperatures down...and in fact I think it may be tough to get above 95 or 96 in the next several days (current MEG forecasts/guidance is 97-100). Still...with those dewpoints...heat index will probably approach 105. I don't see the 110-type stuff that's being hinted at right now though...honestly...unless we do get 77-79 dewpoints because I don't think the temperatures will be as high as currently forecast. I hope so at least!

[dwagner88]

Chattanooga did officially hit 100 sometime last week, but I'm not sure which day it was. I was out of town.

[Kevin]

Hot Today...we are reaching the 105 HI critieria in many areas...but it could be worse...

Fairfield, IA...

FAIRFIELD *    MOSUNNY   97  86  71 S13G18    29.91R HX 130     

Got to love those cornfields in Iowa...many sites in the state seeing dewpoints in the 80s Today!

[Kevin]

Another Hot Day...though both temperatures and dewpoints are a degree or two lower than yesterday...so we're barely hitting the 105 criteria in most areas...despite an upgrade to an excessive heat warning that calls for HI of 110 or greater. We were closer yesterday...

Brief break possible Friday-Saturday with cold front approach but both GFS and ECMWF are in strong agreement with a 500mb ridge 596-598DM centering over the Southeast Next Week. This should allow highs to head toward the upper 90s in what this time could really be the Southeast's first widespread heat wave of the season...with some 100 degree readings not impossible. EC...as seen a few posts above... had hinted at this type of heat wave a couple of week's back...with the GFS not on-board...and for once the GFS was actually right. With both now agreeing on this upcoming ridge...confidence much higher this go-around I think.

Also wanted to add...so far Memphis (KMEM) has recorded 38 straight days of high temperatures of 90 degrees or greater. The record is 54...from 1980. We need 16 more days. Unless something unexpected occurs...we should get at least 7-10 more...so this record may be in danger. FWIW...the record for consecutive 95+ days was recently set in 2007...shattering the then 1980-record of 21...with the new record of 28...while the record for consecutive 100+ still stands at 15...again from the 1980 heat wave (where most of Memphis's heat records were set)

[Clay]

The dew point has already touched 80º today. Whew, it is unbearable outside.

[Mr. William E. Brantley]

The dew point has already touched 80º today. Whew, it is unbearable outside.

Here in Bemis - At 2 p.m. the Temp was 94 ° : Dew Point was 78 ° making the Humidity 66 % : Making the Heat Index : Felt Like Temp soar to 115 ° in the Shade : Now that was Dangeriously Hot for a few minutes. More coming later in my regular report hopefully.

[Kevin]

Its been clear for the past several days...at least in the MEG CWA...that guidance has no clue what its doing...constantly running upwards of 4-7 degrees too warm. Calling for 99-100 Today at KMEM and its currently 91 (I'm assuming we'll be able to manage another couple of degrees of warmth). What exactly it is...soil moisture...etc...don't know...but honestly MEG should have been backing off these upper 90s a while ago given the season-long under performance compared to guidance...and the days-long heat advisories are borderline at best.

If 596-598dm Ridges are not bringing the significant heat...then nothing will this summer I'd have to think.

[cliftown04]

If you dont call this significant heat I would only hate to imagine.  It may not read 100 degrees but upper 90's all summer I call significant.