AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1031 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2006
.UPDATE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
LOUISIANA/MISSSIPPI COASTLINE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO DROP GRADUALLY AS VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR
REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WHERE SINGLE DIGIT TO BELOW ZERO READINGS RESIDE.
MAIN FOCUS FOR UPDATE THIS MORNING IS HEADLINE ISSUES WITH THE
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
88D REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIPITATION OCCURING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH...THOUGH RETURNS AND ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE VERY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AREAS UP TO THE NORTH RECEIVED 2-3 INCHES THUS FAR IN
ADDITION TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE FROM LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
I-40 CORRIDOR DOWN ACROSS A PORTION OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET HAVE PRIMARILY BEEN THE PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH
ROUGHLY AROUND 1/2 INCH OF SLEET THUS FAR. OBSERVATIONS IN THE ICE
WARNING AREA HAVE FINALLY SEEN PRECIPITATION CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN
TO FREEZING RAIN.
295K SURFACE SHOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT STEADILY DECREASING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND. RUC/NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIP AS LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD...SLEET/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR...AND FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
ANTICIPATING ONLY MINOR SNOW/ICE/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AS BEST AS
MENTIONED ABOVE BUT WILL DOWNGRADE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40
TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DUE TO THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING AND THE HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS FROM EARILER WINTER
PRECIPITATION LAST EVENING INTO THIS MORNING. WILL MAKE ANY OTHER
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS AS NECESSARY TO FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS.
