Early March southern Snowstorm potential

[Tom23]

From another board:
12z Euro= h5 low nearly cut off from the main flow. Slow moving surface low along the gulf coast and a 1040+ high over the lakes

Hmm....I'm hungry for 

Whats that mean in layman's terms for snow?

[keithinala]

Whats that mean in layman's terms for snow?

It simply means things look good on the Euro as well as the GFS. Maybe even better on the Euro.

[Woodvegas]

Whats that mean in layman's terms for snow?

[tennessee storm09]

its been almost a year ago, to be exact february 28th. i got my foot of snow with that closed low. i will be gladly take anoter foot of snow to close out this winter, as it looks on the models that the low closes off to our south. mmm could get intersting

[tennessee storm09]

havent seen it yet, but word is the 12 euro looks yummy for this system.

[Tom23]

Like the looks of that. NO, I LOVE the looks of that lol. But yeah, I think we should have cautious optimism until at least Friday, and even then still know that it could bust.

[tennessee storm09]

well lookiing at the 18z, at hour 204 looks pretty good for west tn. with surface temps look good also. this storm is still looking good. and the 18z is usally the drier run also.

[Yazoo63]

well lookiing at the 18z, at hour 204 looks pretty good for west tn. with surface temps look good also. this storm is still looking good. and the 18z is usally the drier run also.

I'm just amazed at the fact that the system has shown up on the last 6 GFS runs.  I believe it was there first at 240 hours, and it's still there at 204 hours out.  Really odd to have this much consistency with the GFS this far out.  

Must be a fluke !  The GFS never sniffs something out THAT far in advance  (or does it ?)  

I guess a blind squirrel can find a nut now and then!   

[tennessee storm09]

yeah yazoo, very strange to see that from the gfs. but something is brewing with this sytem. the euro has jumped on board also. thats yoour two big heavy hitters of models now showing this. word on other forums is the 12 euro is epic.

[tennessee storm09]

another thought to think about. models pick up on a storms like 10 days out or so , and when it consistently keeps showing it in some form, thats a good sign of a big storm. i know alot op people havent jumped on board with this just yet, and i cant blame them to a extent. but i got a good feeling about this one. heck i almost even started the thread myself, but i didnt want to jinx it.

[Yazoo63]

another thought to think about. models pick up on a storms like 10 days out or so , and when it consistently keeps showing it in some form, thats a good sign of a big storm. i know alot op people havent jumped on board with this just yet, and i cant blame them to a extent. but i got a good feeling about this one. heck i almost even started the thread myself, but i didnt want to jinx it.

i'm just sayin'  ...   

[jmundie]

Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

I've only been model watching for 4 years, and I've seen lots of storms hold from day ten to day 5 or so before turning into a lakes cutter.

If we're still seeing good consistancy for this joker by Wednesday night, I'll start ringing the bell.

[tennessee storm09]

climatology at the time of the year says, yeah lakes cutter possible. but with the omeaga blocking going on during this time, i dont see it happening. heck just take a look at the system going this week. shunted down to the south. if anything with this system in early march, i would be more worried about it being supressed then a lakes cutter. but the pv seems to start to retrieve in this time period which i think would keep it being to supressed. i might have to eat crow on this one or even get called out, but i think a lot of people will be ringing the bell pretty soon on this forum.

[keithinala]

No lakes cutter with this one...far in the sw next sunday


Also, from the HPC today:

BUT BY SUN DAY 7...THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND GFS ARE
ALL CONSOLIDATING A NEW VIGOROUS TROF SOMEWHERE OVER THE SWRN
STATES...AND HAVE GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE PAST DAYS RUNS IN SO
DOING.

 

[Yazoo63]

Don't count your chickens before they hatch.

I've only been model watching for 4 years, and I've seen lots of storms hold from day ten to day 5 or so before turning into a lakes cutter.

If we're still seeing good consistancy for this joker by Wednesday night, I'll start ringing the bell.

Who is "counting chickens" ? 

We're just commenting on what the GFS is showing, and the fact that it has been consistent for a couple of days.  That's all.

But, as always, the storm could be completely gone on the next run.