Spring 2010 Severe Weather Outlook

[Thundersnow]

OHX just seeing early spring rains with the system first of next week, no thunder at this time:

IN THE EXT FCST...A SFC LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF MIDDLE TN AND SPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS BACK UP ACROSS THE AREA MON NT THROUGH WED. BETTER
THETA-E RIDGING AND SHOWALTER VALUES OF < 2 WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF TN.
THUS...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER WITH THE STORM SYSTEM GIVEN THE
EXPECTED SOUTHERLY TRACK AND LACK OF INSTABILITY. HEIGHT VALUES WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED SO LOOKING FOR JUST LIQ PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM.

[Tom23]

Gonna be in Nashvegas (Nashville) this weekend... Glad to see its supposed to be sunny and mild. Last year I went there it was cloudy and warm at this point of time. I am going with my Youth Group to the YEC, same as last year.

[Charles L.]

Gonna be in Nashvegas (Nashville) this weekend... Glad to see its supposed to be sunny and mild. Last year I went there it was cloudy and warm at this point of time. I am going with my Youth Group to the YEC, same as last year.

Perfect weekend for a trip to Nashville.

Like TS said, it is common for severe storms to start out in the deep south and then gradually come northward over time as everything starts coming together at that point (for us).

[Adam]

Perfect weekend for a trip to Nashville.

Like TS said, it is common for severe storms to start out in the deep south and then gradually come northward over time as everything starts coming together at that point (for us).

Man im ready, my first severe season.

[Tom23]

Man im ready, my first severe season.

Same here Adam. I think the storms will be fun to track

[toastido]

Perfect weekend for a trip to Nashville.

Like TS said, it is common for severe storms to start out in the deep south and then gradually come northward over time as everything starts coming together at that point (for us).

Lol... I'm in Nashville this weekend too.. 

[Nashville_wx]

Anyone wana grab a adult beverage?

[tennessee storm09]

going to briing a old topic stated by mr. gossage. thiings look like they are finally going the way he said it would. it looks very actvice for the next 3 weeks or so. we may have been a little late for severe, but i think it might be making up for lost time after looking at long range stuff.

[Eric]

After a cursory glance at the 18z GFS concerning this weekend, I see nothing at all that would lead me to say we'll see a repeat of this past weekend.  By my eyes, it looks more like a frontal squall line than anything...especially with unfavorable upper-air support and the only surface low present parked over Minnesota.  That could very well change, however, with the 0z runs, but as of NOW, that's what I see.

[toastido]

After a cursory glance at the 18z GFS concerning this weekend, I see nothing at all that would lead me to say we'll see a repeat of this past weekend.  By my eyes, it looks more like a frontal squall line than anything...especially with unfavorable upper-air support and the only surface low present parked over Minnesota.  That could very well change, however, with the 0z runs, but as of NOW, that's what I see.

I just glanced at some AFDs and HWOs around the region, but it looks like we could wind up with another severe episode this coming weekend.  Models have the timing/strength still uncertain, but it's possible none the less.  I will refrain from making a thread for this just yet, but if models begin to show more agreement, it might be warranted.  I'm not saying it would be like this last weekend, but it could get bumpy.

[tennessee storm09]

yep, this late week and into early next week has got my attention also for awhile. we are also going to start tapping into the carribean for more moisture too.   so toastido, you did say talkweather was going to be down for a while. is that correct?

[toastido]

yep, this late week and into early next week has got my attention also for awhile. we are also going to start tapping into the carribean for more moisture too.   so toastido, you did say talkweather was going to be down for a while. is that correct?

I don't know for certain, but it looks that way, yes.

[Eric]

yep, this late week and into early next week has got my attention also for awhile. we are also going to start tapping into the carribean for more moisture too.   so toastido, you did say talkweather was going to be down for a while. is that correct?

I just glanced at some AFDs and HWOs around the region, but it looks like we could wind up with another severe episode this coming weekend.  Models have the timing/strength still uncertain, but it's possible none the less.  I will refrain from making a thread for this just yet, but if models begin to show more agreement, it might be warranted.  I'm not saying it would be like this last weekend, but it could get bumpy.

I don't know whether I'm missing something, but this weekend doesn't scream at me like this past system did.  I'm not saying we WON'T see a period of active weather, but I'm not seeing the good indications of an "outbreak"-type of event (I use the o-word VERY loosely here).  There's no discernible H7 dry slot working it's way in until the abundance of moisture and instability have worked themselves out.  Couple that with what looks to me like unfavorable upper air support AND with copious amounts of qpf painted on the GFS midrange maps, we have the makings of what we saw last week...a warm sector full of garbage.  Could this all change?  Absolutley.  These thoughts are extremely preliminary in scope and are subject to change at a whim.

[toastido]

I don't know whether I'm missing something, but this weekend doesn't scream at me like this past system did.  I'm not saying we WON'T see a period of active weather, but I'm not seeing the good indications of an "outbreak"-type of event (I use the o-word VERY loosely here).  There's no discernible H7 dry slot working it's way in until the abundance of moisture and instability have worked themselves out.  Couple that with what looks to me like unfavorable upper air support AND with copious amounts of qpf painted on the GFS midrange maps, we have the makings of what we saw last week...a warm sector full of garbage.  Could this all change?  Absolutley.  These thoughts are extremely preliminary in scope and are subject to change at a whim.

I never said it stood out like this last weekend did...nor did I mention anything about an outbreak.  Just possible we could see another severe event for this coming weekend.. Just an observation. 

[Kevin]

At the very least...this appears to be a pattern with numerous disturbances and rain events...possibly leading to a flash flooding event. Some GFS QPF numbers are in excess of 6-8" between 4/30 and 5/4 in the Memphis and Mid-South area. Instability will be dictated by exact timing of these disturbances and their convective coverage/amounts...but given the time of the year...there probably will be at least some Slight Risks during this period. At this time...no I don't see anything pointing to an exceptionally organized event or outbreak...but obviously many days things are subject to change.