AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CA$HVILLE TN
323 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2006
.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A COOL FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO THE OKLAHOMA. A SFC RIDGE AXIS IS SEEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND FLORIDA.
H5 SHORTWAVE IN CNTRL CANADA SWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SFC FRONT TO MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE MIDSTATE TONIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE AREA ON SAT. THIS MEANS THINGS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY FRI NGT TO SAT NGT. THEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SERN US ROTATES NWWD AROUND THE BASE OF THE SFC RIDGE...WHICH IS CENTERED IN NEW ENGLAND BY NOW...BRINGING BACK A CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR SUN. THEN A 2ND TROUGH/COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MON NGT. THIS TROUGH DOES NOT PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PREVIOUS FNT.
THUS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN PERSISTS IN THE FCST FOR THE REMAINDER.
HIGH TEMPS DECLINE FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL WITH THE INCREASE IN POPS AND THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES. MOS POPS AND TEMPS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND NO SGFNT DEVIATIONS WERE PLANNED.
