2/20-22 Snow Chances

[Adam]

Well its the first bold prediction ive made so im going to stick with it.

[Curt]

ok cool.

[nick0924]

OHX has this event as a nogo...just sayin'

[Thundersnow]

If you're rooting for something during this time period, the GFS isn't giving much to be optimistic about... looks pretty warm.

[snowdog]

Either the GFS is on some serious crack or it is pulling off the biggest coup of all time.  While the other models show rain/snow possibilities the GFS shows severe weather.  LOL!!

[Thundersnow]

Either the GFS is on some serious crack or it is pulling off the biggest coup of all time.  While the other models show rain/snow possibilities the GFS shows severe weather.  LOL!!

I didn't say it, but I thought it had that look... really more for areas closer to the Gulf.  Mainly a heavy rain event for us, I think, according to this run.

[snowdog]

GGem shows a lakes cutter as well.  Hmmm...I'll wait and see the Euro run tonight but about time to pull the plug on this one.  The end of the month is really getting hyped.  It better produce.   

[Curt]

GFS vs CMC/EURO....who will win? One or the others will have to conform soon. Its well worth noting the GFS ensembles are much colder than the ops, too.

[Curt]

Tonights 0z ensemble at 120/132, looks like the 12z EURO. May be rain though depending on 2m temps:

[SnowSeek]

"GGem shows a lakes cutter as well.  Hmmm...I'll wait and see the Euro run tonight but about time to pull the plug on this one.  The end of the month is really getting hyped.  It better produce."

How do you pull the plug on this?

It's not just GFS vs EURO,


It's GFS vs JMA/NOGAPS/EURO/Canadian/UKmet...the GFS is outlier here.  Again, I don't know how someone can say it's over because of 1 model or 1 model run vs  the unity of the others, even if some of the others are shaky.  Lol, I'd be willing to bet someone has stuck a fork, pulled the plug, thrown in the towell, moved on to the next one, on almost every successful snow event in TN since 96'.  How often do the models flip flop 5 days out? 

Hey perhaps the GFS has the proper read on this one but it's going against alot of others.  And it's certainly not throw in the towell material.  After reading a column from a long range specialist he didn't buy the GFS for a number of reasons and one was because of a block to the north.

I definatly think this could be a rain event but a lakes cutter?

[Curt]

Hilarious, 0z EURO went a little further south than before, keeping frozen. One of them is out to lunch. Yesterdays 12z CMC and last nights 0z CMC flipped flopped. (12z= EURO and 0z = GFS). If the EURO goes north soon, I would say game over. Until then, mildly interesting.

0z EURO at 144


0z GFS same system at 126, so faster and much further north

[snowdog]

Good write-up Ctb.  Not pulling the plug yet.  Euro gave me some hope. 

[Curt]

HPC's take = EURO/EURO ens all the way, discounts GFS/CMC as "disparate"...pretty funny. Gives an interesting indication for whats to come AFTER 20-22, which could get interesting winter wx wise.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
400 AM EST WED FEB 17 2010
 
VALID 12Z SUN FEB 21 2010 - 12Z WED FEB 24 2010
 

USED THE 00Z/17 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR
DAYS 3-5...WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 ECMWF AND 12Z/16 ECENS
MEAN DAYS 6 AND 7.  THE 00Z/17 ECMWF...GEFS MEAN...AND 12Z/16
ECENS MEAN CLUSTER WELL WITH MOST OF THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD...FAR AND AWAY BETTER THAN THE
DISPARATE SOLUTIONS OF THE 00Z/17 DETERMINISTIC GFS...GEM
GLOBAL...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE UKMET.  THE UKMET SUPPORTS THE
ECMWF WITH BOTH THE CHUNK OF POLAR AIR PULLED INTO THE SOUTHWEST
DAY 5...AS WELL AS THE MORE SUPPRESSED TRACK OF THE MAJOR WAVE
CROSSING THE EAST LATE DAY 5 INTO DAY 6.  BLENDED THE ECMWF WITH
ITS MOST RECENT MEAN THE LAST TWO DAYS TO MITIGATE THE LATITUDE AT
WHICH THE CYCLONE PASSES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST DAY 6...AS WELL AS
EVEN OUT THE LATITUDE OF THE NEXT WAVE OF PACIFIC ENERGY
APPROACHING NORTH AMERICA DAY 7.  THE GFS AND GEM GLOBAL LOOK
SUSPECT WITH THE RUSH OF LOW PRESSURE UP THE OHIO VALLEY MID
PERIOD...CONSIDERING THE BLOCKY FLOW REGIME WHICH HAS HELD MOST OF
THE WINTER.  THE SYSTEM CROSSING THE EAST LATE DAY 5 INTO DAY 6
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HIGHLY IMPACT SOME OF THE AREAS ALREADY HIT
BY MAJOR SNOWSTORMS THIS SEASON.

[Tom23]

Guys, my eyes are on the late week snowstorm potential for next week. Looks interesting. If anyone wants a better sense of what I'm talking about, go to Talkweather.com and look at the forum for Late Week Snowstorm.

[SnowSeek]

GFS is a joke for this storm, it's gone from one scenerio to something completely different...

I will not be looking at the GFS at all during this run, maybe the last day or two