2/12-13 Winter Weather Threat

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[Nashville_wx]

Well looking 00Z NAM tonight it seems to be more phased @ H5. If this were to continue it could easily pull the surface low feature North. Interesting to watch this one once again.

[tennessee storm09]

so nashville, if this thing phases,like its looking like it wants to. it could pull even further north?

[Sbeagles]

Well it looked better on the 0z nam but there will have to be some drastic changes for us to see anything decent right?

[jmundie]

Well looking 00Z NAM tonight it seems to be more phased @ H5. If this were to continue it could easily pull the surface low feature North. Interesting to watch this one once again.

Just was about to post that. For those that don't read the 500mb maps, you probably noticed the precipitation trying to come north... that's the different streams joining together, or phasing.


You can see the yellows trying to join together from south to north from the main shortwave in Texas.

And that's opposed to this at 84 on the 12z, lacking the middle X that kinda connects the two streams.

[jmundie]

If we can get a quarter inch of qpf out of this storm, assuming there isn't a long period of virga, We'd see over 3 inches easily, ratios being higher. So it wouldnt take much of a northward extension of the precip shield to get us something on the ground.

[Woodvegas]

As noted above the 2/10 0Z NAM is close to phasing the Gulf low with a little piece of energy dropping down from the north which would improve our chances for snow some. (If you're not familiar with the 500mb maps, what we want is for the two southern X's to phase or fuse together which would significantly increase the strength of the storm and pull it north).



Also, note how the precip is creeping north...

[Sbeagles]

Well the GFS is still sending this thing to south florida on vacation.

[tennessee storm09]

yeah, isnt that the truth. geez, miami?

[Crockett]

I like the trend of the NAM, but I'd feel much better if it were the GFS showing that rather than the NAM. The NAM's track record lately has been bad, to say the least.

[Woodvegas]

2/10 0Z GFS=Fail...seems to be an outlier at this point...I hope.

[tennessee storm09]

the nam and the gfs is a world apart, right now. what happened at hour 66   man.

[shooting70]

Bugalou,the ULL looks to be moving more east now than southeast.Whether that means anything or not for our area.

[Sbeagles]

I just don't see this thing taking that big of a dive. I will probably be wrong but I don't think it will happen. If I'm remembering right its further north on this run than it was on the 12z not by much but by some, I may be wrong about that I will need to go back and look.

[keithinala]

Canadian gives a huge hit for central/south ala, and some snow back into the Tennessee Valley. NAM had me back up to 2 inches at Huntsville. Things are finally trending north and this thing is trying to phase.

[shooting70]

Keith,can you post the maps of the canadian.Over at talk weather,they are talking about close to triple phaser,similar to 1993,but not as strong.Im guessing thats what it would take for us to be in on the action.