Winter threat around Feb. 8-9

[Charles L.]

Don't read OHX's AFD...just heartbreaking.

[Clay]

Back to a mix bag.

[Clay]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
901 PM CST MON FEB 8 2010

.LATEST UPDATE...
RAIN/SNOW LINE CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHWARD. GENERALLY...THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE MID STATE HAS NOW SWITCHED OVER TO RAIN. THE ORIENTATION
OF THE SFC TROUGH IS SUCH THAT THE RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE MID STATE EXCEPT FOR THE WARNING AREA. TEMPS
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THROUGH 12Z.

WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...I WILL UPDATE AGAIN AND CANCEL A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ADVISORY. ONCE THE SWITCHOVER TO RAIN COMMENCES...IT
IS UNLIKELY TO SWITCH BACK TO SNOW UNTIL THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT
ON TUESDAY(LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON). AT THAT TIME...ONLY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

[jmundie]

I think the rain snow line is gonna set up pretty much like it is currently, I40 as a dividing line. Cold air starting to push toward west ten and mississippi and catching up with cold air. I think the warm nose we saw push into Nashville was it for the western portions. I would say at this point the winner is gonna be ridgetop towards clarksville

[Charles L.]

NO! And Clay has to go and post it...

Williamson County is now closed, from the sound of it...most county schools may close just due to the fact of what is happening tonight.

[Susan]

Wm Co Schools closed tomorrow.

Stupid to make that call this early ..... IMHO

[Adam]

Not Lawrence county, unless we change back to snow tonight which is unlikely.

[bigalpha]

I have about 1.5" of wet snow at my house.  The flakes are GIGANTIC!

What's the idea of how long the snow will last around my parts?

[Thundersnow]

Don't read OHX's AFD...just heartbreaking.

That's what those Skew-T diagrams basically showed us.

As far as modeling goes, the RUC reigns supreme with those short-range Skew-T diagrams.

Best bet for predicting winter weather in TN...

Forecast that there is a low-confidence possibility of snow, if the globals show it within 3-4 days.

Then, lean heavily on the short term modeling tools in the final 24 hours.

[beth]

I think Metro Nash will wait till the morning to call it as we are out of days now.  They only build in 5 days, the rest of the surrounding countys build in 10-13 days.

[Charles L.]

I have about 1.5" of wet snow at my house.  The flakes are GIGANTIC!

What's the idea of how long the snow will last around my parts?

Possibly the whole event.

The snow is falling at a faster clip now and are beginning to increase in size also.

[Susan in Macon]

Just went out to measure here and we have anywhere from 1/2 to 3/4 inch.


And it was just announced that Macon is closed.  My daughter started jumping up and down and my son wanted to know if he still had to go to school.

[Thundersnow]

Wm Co Schools closed tomorrow.

Stupid to make that call this early ..... IMHO

Well, with the road conditions as bad as they are tonight, with all the wrecks, etc., they would have to bank on things improving significantly between now and tomorrow morning for schools to open.  I would venture to guess that many of the backroads will still be slushy at best, though I bet the main roads will mostly just be wet.

Anyway, it makes more sense that pre-emptively closing the night before snow is in the forecast like they've done before when little happened.

At least, something actually happened to lead them to the decision.

[jmundie]

Is there a new RUC run out yet?

[Adam]

If you look at intellicasts radar the rain/snow line is moving north in east central middle tennessee but its starting to sink back south in western tennessee. With more precip developing.