Winter threat around Feb. 8-9

[Tom23]

18z's showed little to no snow in the last system, so I wouldn't get worked up about it at all.

[Cameron K.]

18z's showed little to no snow in the last system, so I wouldn't get worked up about it at all.

I'm not going to get worked about it until the day before period good or bad. Temps at this point shouldn't be much of a concern until the models are showing a consecutive consistency for several runs. We've only seen 2 so far on the GFS that show this solution. It's rare a low will follow the exact track the GFS has set over 5 days out.

[jmundie]

Euro looks much better for this event than the fickle gfs.

I honestly have no idea how waa overcomes that giant horizontal pv in that situation. As we saw with 6z, if it comes in any strong than that it's suppressed into the gulf.

You know what I'd love to see, a good cold air source with a low starting in new Orleans, riding up the spine of the apps with a hard negative tilt just dumping gulf moisture back into the cold air. Where we won't have any mixing issues and no dry air and or suppression issues.

[keithinala]

6-10 day temps(and 8-14 day for that matter), look good. Let's just get some precip in the right place at that right time

[keithinala]

TWC takes it's maps from a run of the GFS, right? Whichever one this is isn't good.
this says sun night, but it's really mon night

[DocB]

6-10 day temps(and 8-14 day for that matter), look good. Let's just get some precip in the right place at that right time

Something tells me they are going to have a hard time at the Vancouver Winter Olympics next week.

[keithinala]

Something tells me they are going to have a hard time at the Vancouver Winter Olympics next week.

You got that right, they are already having to truck in snow that they had stored at higher altitudes.

[Tom23]

TWC constantly floats around on their maps. One afternoon, I saw 6-12 inches predicted for my area, then an hour later, they said 1-3, then another hour later it said 3-6. So I'm not worried about that either, at least not yet.

[Adam]

Let the models get through the system they are on now.

[Tom23]

Yep; they were all offset with the incoming system before the winter storm (winter storm slush for me) went through and the low was completely gone to sea. Like everyone's saying, Saturday/Sunday will be big days. At least its weekend so I can watch also.

[Curt]

18z's showed little to no snow in the last system, so I wouldn't get worked up about it at all.

18Z GFS ops sucks. Ensembles? Different story and verbatim of 12z GFS ENS:

[Adam]

These models are on over duty with all these storms coming in, they are probably all saying give me a break . They might just be a little slow right now.

[Tom23]

Doesn't the Ensembles show a light accumulation though?? I mean, a 10 to 1 ratio for the best QPF in the state would give them 2-3 inches.

[snowdog]

Euro looks much better for this event than the fickle gfs.

I honestly have no idea how waa overcomes that giant horizontal pv in that situation. As we saw with 6z, if it comes in any strong than that it's suppressed into the gulf.

You know what I'd love to see, a good cold air source with a low starting in new Orleans, riding up the spine of the apps with a hard negative tilt just dumping gulf moisture back into the cold air. Where we won't have any mixing issues and no dry air and or suppression issues.

How much to buy that?   

[Curt]

Doesn't the Ensembles show a light accumulation though?? I mean, a 10 to 1 ratio for the best QPF in the state would give them 2-3 inches.

Um..if this much QPF fell IMBY with 2m temps and 850mg temps below 0C (which it wont), I will take a swim in the Mighty Missisip.