Winter threat around Feb. 8-9

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[keithinala]

BNA(OHX) NWS doesn't want to get into much detail today..lol
.

LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
SFC LOW PRES WRAPS A COLD FRONT INTO MID TN FRI NIGHT-SAT WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE/SNOW SHOWERS. A COLD WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRES
SYS MOVES INTO THE AREA MON-TUE. THE AIR IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
BUT WL CONTINUE WITH A RAIN/SNOW CHANCE.

This from HSV:

AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF RECOVERY AND WARM ADVECTION PERIOD OCCURS ON
MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PERIOD OF BLO AVG TEMPS THRU MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. A RATHER VIGOROUS ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IN THE WARM
ADVECTION ZONE FOLLOWED BY A MIX WITH SOME -SN PSBL AFT FROPA MON
NGT.

[msmafia]

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH CONTINUED BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HELPING TO DRAW GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE LATEST
GFS IS TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH THE ECMWF
TRACKING THE LOW ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIPITATION TYPES AND DEGREE OF ARCTIC AIR
DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...BUT IT
IS STILL WAY TOO SOON TO PINPOINT THE DETAILS...AS THE STORM IS
STILL BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. SIMPLY SOMETHING TO
WATCH OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

[Alex]

I remember a day or so before the storm they called for 4-8 inches for the Knoxville area.  So if you did indeed have 4 inches.....then no it was not a bust.

[DocB]

IF this system does come in, I'd like for the rain/snow line to be waaaaayyyyy to the South, because before the event, I was supposed to get 8 inches, even from the NWS/NOAA.gov sites. However, the snow started mixing early on, and it just never matieralized. Of course, we got about 3.5-4 inches, but come on....

I'd like that wishcast too please.

Thing is, there are no absolutes when it comes to forecasting as the chaos theory can muck up even short-term forecasts. At best, the models are educated guesses with frequent corrections as new data plays out.

[Alex]

Yep.....just like here in Chatt we were suppose to get rain.  Then we got 5 inches.

[Adam2014]

Yep.....just like here in Chatt we were suppose to get rain.  Then we got 5 inches.

That just tells you , you never know whats gonna happen until it happens.

[Eric]

Awful big talk for a system nearly a week out, but then again Mr. Nolan always likes to talk snow. It will be interesting to see how this develops, it reminds me of a storm we had not to long ago but for the life of me I just cant remember which one . Looks like a lot of cold air after it passes will be dumped in here, so who knows what may happen during the time frame following "the next potential big storm."

Wow....I wonder how Davis feels out there on THAT limb.  

[ctbpharmd]

Actually failry decent agreement about this event in TN on 12z GFS and EMCWF today. 850's are warmer on the euro but not sure about surface temps as it might be mighty close for a wintry mix changing to snow. GFS= all snow. Honestly, this has the "classic" Mid-South winter storm look to it so POTENTIAL is there. Bottom line- something to watch, not obsess about yet.

[DocB]

Honestly, this has the "classic" Mid-South winter storm look to it so POTENTIAL is there. Bottom line- something to watch, not obsess about yet.

And that's the best advice/statement/reaction yet 

[snowdog]

I agree as well.  Lets let it bake for a couple more days and pull it out of the oven Friday night and see what we got.  I do like the look this far out. 

[jmundie]

We're about to see what the 0z gfs has in store. Temps certainly look good, and axis of cold air doesn't scream suppression...

[tennessee storm09]

thought i just drop by and say hello to everyone, yeah the gfs looks pretty interesting for early next week to say the least. now leat get the ole dr. no to  agree, then we may have something here folks.

[ajatwister]

0z looks fabulous!!! I agree we may have something here. Identical to the last event?? 

[Eric]

0z GFS = interesting.....

[Nashville_wx]

Surface temps at 180 hours look mighty cold Eric. Lots of potential out there..