More winter weather around Feb.5-6?

[bobbyjon]

Dang this is a rough crowd, especially towards Adam, chill guys. With the exception of a very few everyone on here is an amateur.

[JJJackson]

Things look interesting on the 12z for SW TN for next Monday/Tuesday. Similar setup to this past weekend but not as robust...yet.

[keithinala]

I just can't get over the fact that BNA always forecasts warmer tempretures than huntsville. For friday, there temps are 3-5 degrees cooler than southern middle tennessee.

that may be the case for then, but normally huntsville is much more conservative. You can cross a line from their coverage area to Nashvilles and the weather changes drastically often.

[Woodvegas]

2/2 12Z ECMWF shows a rain event Friday with light wrap around snow at the end. 2m temps never drop below freezing and 850 temps only drop below 0C at the end.

[Nashville_wx]

So what have I missed?

[jmundie]

0z Nam starting to show signs of evaporational cooling in north georgia and bootheel of missouri 

[Adam]

0z Nam starting to show signs of evaporational cooling in north georgia and bootheel of missouri 

But not in tennessee?

[Charles L.]

WSMV said that northern counties and SCK counties could see a light accumulation from this event. 1/2"-1" is what Paul Heggen said...

[jmundie]

It all depends on how dry the air is as the precip moves in, and how much it warms up by friday. Models have definitely been trending colder the past day or so... especially the last two runs of the GFS and NAM look like some evaporational cooling attempting to begin at the onset of the precipitation in Tennessee. And it coming in at night is also a positive development.

I'd love to see a surprise snowstorm. Those are always the best. Obviously I'm not gonna look at this storm and assume anything other than backside flurries and snowshowers, but a few tweaks and this could be a major snow or mixed precip storm. Track is perfect, just need a little less waa and a little evaporational cooling.

[Thundersnow]

That's an impressive precipitation shield spreading across Texas.

[jmundie]

I think the models may have been having trouble with this storm Friday due o the coastal bomb currently headig out to sea. Been a consistent colder trend, and the latest nam appears to give Adam his own personal 2 inch snowstorm.

Interested to see if the gfs follows suite on colder, wetter, more negative tilt system.
 

[Adam]

I think the models may have been having trouble with this storm Friday due o the coastal bomb currently headig out to sea. Been a consistent colder trend, and the latest nam appears to give Adam his own personal 2 inch snowstorm.

Interested to see if the gfs follows suite on colder, wetter, more negative tilt system.
 

Very interesting, im glad you used my area as an example. You may be right, maybe they were just having trouble.

[jmundie]

Well obviously it wouldn't pan out exactly, but there looks to be a band of snow (I'm assuming, 850s are plenty cold) setting up right over the southern tier of middle tenn counties. All it means is there may be some lucky folks in our area, but right now, you're in the bullseye of backside precip.

Look at the NAM sim radar for hrs 60-72

[Adam]

Well obviously it wouldn't pan out exactly, but there looks to be a band of snow (I'm assuming, 850s are plenty cold) setting up right over the southern tier of middle tenn counties. All it means is there may be some lucky folks in our area, but right now, you're in the bullseye of backside precip.

Look at the NAM sim radar for hrs 60-72

I did notice that, it looks like kind of a wierd set up. We will just have to see. Is there anyway that the precip might start as a icy mix, i noticed that memphis put this into their forecast for their northern counties.

[hrmc]

How credible are the threats yet next week? James Spann says a sharp negative AO coming beginning Sunday?