More winter weather around Feb.5-6?

[jfranklin]

If this last storm was any indicator, I'm not holding my breath for this one. Those of us in Nashville kept thinking the snow shield would be temporarily moved aside to allow for 10+ inches, but that warm layer kept it from becoming a historic event for us. All the while, the models were convinced of 8 inches. So my gut tells me that if there is ANY indication that temps might not be in place for a large snow event, we will most likely get rain, or at best, slush.

Here's hoping I'm wrong!

[WFayetteTN]

6 more weeks of winter says Groundhog Phil! Happy Groundhog's Day every one!

Looks like the groundhog saw a shadow. Lesson for future: DON’T TAKE HIM OUT UNDER A DIRECT SOURCE OF LIGHT. Remember high school physics.  

[CookevilleWeatherGuy]

It is about 80-85% accurate, i remember it forecasted some of the snow right on target last year.

The Farmer's Almanac is 80-85% accurate??  NO WAY!!! 

They may claim that number as accuracy...

Here is a quote from some who've analyzed their forecasting.....
One disputing analysis concluded that these forecasts are at most 2% more accurate than random guesses.  Pennsylvania State University meteorologist Paul Knight notes that the Almanac's forecasts are so vague that it is difficult to assess whether they are accurate or not.

[jmundie]

Re: farmers almanac--- nothing is 85% accurate Adam. They might get general trends right, but mist everything else is just guessing from them.

And re: this weekend, like I said above, I'd be interested in how dry the air is for the onset of the storm... We could possibly get front end snow before it turns to rain. But honestly, there is not good model consistancy for the storm, and until I see some semblance f the models trending towards a solution, I'm not biting.

Somethig to think about though is that the same places often receive snow multiple times in a year... Storm track and cold air have a tendency to set up in the same places they have (think Virginia this year). Something to think about. But I would get your panties in a wad over this yet Adam. When models are inconsistant on a borderline event, the good money says don't expect snow.

And honestly, aren't the unexpected storms the best ones anyway?

[ST1]

Where's the best place to get a wet bulb temps map for gfs runs?

I go to Twister Data and get it off of the Skew Ts. When you get there, pull up a map of some sort and then click on the location where you want to see the skew t and it will pop up. This works for all wx models on the site. Pretty neat.

Is this what you were looking for?

[jmundie]

I go to Twister Data and get it off of the Skew Ts. When you get there, pull up a map of some sort and then click on the location where you want to see the skew t and it will pop up. This works for all wx models on the site. Pretty neat.

Is this what you were looking for?

that is helpful... But isn't there a site where you can get the gfs
maps with the wetbulbing temps rather than surface or 850s?

[Adam]

The Farmer's Almanac is 80-85% accurate??  NO WAY!!! 

They may claim that number as accuracy...

Here is a quote from some who've analyzed their forecasting.....
One disputing analysis concluded that these forecasts are at most 2% more accurate than random guesses.  Pennsylvania State University meteorologist Paul Knight notes that the Almanac's forecasts are so vague that it is difficult to assess whether they are accurate or not.

O well thats what they claimed i guess i should of said they claimed that it was 80-85% right.

[SnowSeek]

Dude there is noway in heck the farmer's almanac is 85% accurate..

I'll take new technology everyday and then some over a fable...farmer's almanac is like a lot of things, one can draw several conclusions from the book to fit his/her agenda.  Give me the models all day long

[Adam]

Dude there is noway in heck the farmer's almanac is 85% accurate..

I'll take new technology everyday and then some over a fable...farmer's almanac is like a lot of things, one can draw several conclusions from the book to fit his/her agenda.  Give me the models all day long

Ok it's not i just looked at that website and it said it was about that, i should of said that they claimed it.

[Adam]

I just can't get over the fact that BNA always forecasts warmer tempretures than huntsville. For friday, there temps are 3-5 degrees cooler than southern middle tennessee.

[jmundie]

Ok it's not i just looked at that website and it said it was about that, i should of said that they claimed it.

the national enquirer says they are trustworthy too.

Not everything you read is worth trusting, but were all learning here.

[Adam]

the national enquirer says they are trustworthy too.

Not everything you read is worth trusting, but were all learning here.

Yea esepecially me, I'll get there though. Especially with everyone criticizing every comment i make.

[jmundie]

 were not doing it out of hatred, it's just general weather forum ettiquete to ask more questions than make statements, especially when you are new. Not the same questions over and over mind you... But when you're just learning, making broad de larative statements (ie farmers almanac is 80% accurate, or we have a 70% chance of accumulating snow) is gonna draw the attention of those thy know better to correct you. Only because this is a public forum and we've got to do our best not to spread misinformation.

One helpful tip is to qualify statements like this

instead of saying "the farmers almanac is 80% accurate" you might say "well according to the magazine, it says it's 80% accurate, but I'm not sure, does anyone else know?"

you're getting the hang of it. Just takes time. Biggest rule of thumb is making sure you don't make confident statements about stuff you aren't confident you know.

[Eric]

Yea esepecially me, I'll get there though. Especially with everyone criticizing every comment i make.

It's constructive criticism.  And yes, you WILL get there...or we'll throw your butt to the wolves.  



 

[Adam]

It's constructive criticism.  And yes, you WILL get there...or we'll throw your butt to the wolves.  



 

You don't have to worry, i'll be here after yall are long gone and i will be telling the newbies exactly what yall are telling me.