Winter Storm 1/28-1/30

[snowdog]

12z says..hope you like cold rain.   

[Tom23]

12z says..hope you like cold rain.  

This cold rain will be for the South, or the whole state???

[Kevin]

12z GFS actually prints out .45" of ZR for Memphis...but it all falls in a 3 hour period with temperatures just barely below freezing...so I'm extremely suspicious of that being realistic. I would assume all of that should be rain...or just a very brief period of ZR...possibly IP or SN as well. Same goes for most of the rest of the state as well. Not seeing anything at this point to hone in on...other than a brief window near the tail end of the system for a changeover...as we've seen time and time again with little impact. Of course...many days away...so no solution should be given too much credence at this time.

[shooting70]

Kevin,do you think we would need the high to be stronger,or the low to be further south or both?The ensembles look more promising for winterwx than the OP does.Is it about time to write this one off,or do we need to just see what the models show for sunday night with the 0z gfs and other models?I read over at other forums that if the northern stream could come in faster,that would be better for us.I think actually raleighwx(alan hoffman) said something to that effect.

[Kevin]

Kevin,do you think we would need the high to be stronger,or the low to be further south or both?The ensembles look more promising for winterwx than the OP does.Is it about time to write this one off,or do we need to just see what the models show for sunday night with the 0z gfs and other models?I read over at other forums that if the northern stream could come in faster,that would be better for us.I think actually raleighwx(alan hoffman) said something to that effect.

As I said...its too early to be giving any solution much credence. So...anything remains possible.

However...I'm afraid if its winter weather...its most likely ice for TN...as the main concern is if the shallow arctic air along the front moves in faster than projected. Right now there's not much support for deeper colder air to support snow moving in until the system departs. To get that we would either need a much faster frontal passage (still contending with ice here)...or a stronger surface low that would track more SW-NE across MS/AL/GA. No model supports either of these ideas at this time.

[Curt]

12z GFS actually prints out .45" of ZR for Memphis...but it all falls in a 3 hour period with temperatures just barely below freezing...so I'm extremely suspicious of that being realistic. I would assume all of that should be rain...or just a very brief period of ZR...possibly IP or SN as well. Same goes for most of the rest of the state as well. Not seeing anything at this point to hone in on...other than a brief window near the tail end of the system for a changeover...as we've seen time and time again with little impact. Of course...many days away...so no solution should be given too much credence at this time.

Looking at 12z surface parameters, GFS cranks out an amazing out of sleet for the Memphis metro (ULL following the storm?).  Paducah would get nailed with about 10 inches of snow, which leads me to believe this run would bring the def zone through West TN and West KY. I am a little suspicious of this amount as well, but the western parts of the state look to benefit more from this possible track than points further east. Its way too early to say yes or no, as December 2004 was a no for Memphis until a day or so before the event. My eyes were really on last nights euro which was more of a transition to ice from rain for many. Many runs to go folks...no way can someone say it will or wont.

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kmem.txt

[shooting70]

Kevin,to my untrained eye,on the 12zgfs,it has the low from central miss to central alabama and east from there.I doubt that would be the end solution,but thats what it shows.Its always tough around here to see any winter weather to speak of.Alot of almost perfect timing involved.

[Curt]

12z gfs ensembles are colder than today's 12z gfs fo shizzle, which would suggest a more rapid cold air intrusion as the storm arrives. When will I ever get my storm that arrives with cold air in place!!

[Kevin]

The last panel there (remember the QPF is for the 6hrs previous vs the 850 0c line) is certainly supportive of something wintry...either ice or snow...for Tennessee.

[Curt]

The last panel there (remember the QPF is for the 6hrs previous vs the 850 0c line) is certainly supportive of something wintry...either ice or snow...for Tennessee.

Yup it would defintely be a transition...my best guess and sad to say would be to fzra or sleet.

[Kevin]

The Euro appears to look a bit like the GFS Ensemble...but reports the 2m Freezing line runs a good 100 miles north of the 850 0c line...which means any precip on it would likely remain rain for TN for the majority of the time...

[shooting70]

Kevin,i just looked at the 12zeuro,and it looks like the 2m line runs actually south of us and 850 line south of that if im reading it correct.FWIW,so far,the track is similar to the 0z euro.

[jmundie]

I like the trend. Seem to be moving away from the lakes cutter solution.

I'll take the 12z Euro, even with the marginal temps. Until closer to the event, all I'm concerned with are the track and strength of the low.

[Kevin]

Kevin,i just looked at the 12zeuro,and it looks like the 2m line runs actually south of us and 850 line south of that if im reading it correct.FWIW,so far,the track is similar to the 0z euro.

Well I'm just going by what people are posting on other forums...saying the 2m line is running about 50-100 miles north of the 850 line...which itself doesn't cross south of most of the state (enough to get us below freezing per that info) until most of the precip has already exited. Of course...its second hand information...so it could be wrong...

[ams30721us]

Kevin per the 12z Euro:

at hr 138 2m temps drop to around 32 and below from Memphis up to south of Nashville, Colder North and west. They drop thru the 20's after that and drop south through the entire state by hr 144.

by 150 the entire state has 2m temps below 32.

hr 144: Memphis area is recieving anywhere from a .10 to .25 precip, while the Nashville area is getting .25 to .50 inch of precip. With areas along cumberland plateau getting .50-.75 blob. Freeze line way south into Miss, southern tenn up into Ne tenn...

hr 150: Memphis area under .00-.10 of precip while Nashville under .10-.25 inch with 32 line and 850 line way south to the Alabama/Georgia border.