Winter Weather - New Years Eve?

[Adam]

How come this model is showing that, but other models are showing the system more north?

[jmundie]

All I have to say regarding the 12z gfs is heaven help us if that cold verifies

[Woodvegas]

Yep, the 12/23 12Z GFS looks pretty cold in the long range. This is what is progged for BNA (temps are Celsius; -19.4C=3F)...

DATE                2m T    850 T

WED 00Z 30-DEC  -2.0    -4.0   
WED 06Z 30-DEC  -3.9    -4.7   
WED 12Z 30-DEC  -4.9    -4.9 
WED 18Z 30-DEC    2.0    -4.9   
THU 00Z 31-DEC   -3.2    -4.1   
THU 12Z 31-DEC   -2.8    -3.9   
FRI 00Z 01-JAN    -0.5    -5.5   
FRI 12Z 01-JAN    -3.9    -10.8   
SAT 00Z 02-JAN   -5.3    -11.3   
SAT 12Z 02-JAN   -7.1    -6.9 
SUN 00Z 03-JAN   -2.5    -8.9   
SUN 12Z 03-JAN   -8.2    -16.3 
MON 00Z 04-JAN  -11.9   -22.4 
MON 12Z 04-JAN  -16.4   -26.5   
TUE 00Z 05-JAN   -16.2   -24.6   
TUE 12Z 05-JAN   -19.4   -17.9   
WED 00Z 06-JAN  -13.6   -13.1   
WED 12Z 06-JAN  -14.6    -7.2   
THU 00Z 07-JAN   -8.4    -6.9       
THU 12Z 07-JAN  -10.3   -10.9       
FRI 00Z 08-JAN    -7.4     -8.8       

[Eric]

How come this model is showing that, but other models are showing the system more north?

Therein lies the problem(s) associated with the GFS while looking at stuff that far out.

[Eric]

Yep, the 12/23 12Z GFS looks pretty cold in the long range. This is what is progged for BNA (temps are Celsius; -19.4C=3F)...

DATE                2m T    850 T

WED 00Z 30-DEC  -2.0    -4.0   
WED 06Z 30-DEC  -3.9    -4.7   
WED 12Z 30-DEC  -4.9    -4.9 
WED 18Z 30-DEC    2.0    -4.9   
THU 00Z 31-DEC   -3.2    -4.1   
THU 12Z 31-DEC   -2.8    -3.9   
FRI 00Z 01-JAN    -0.5    -5.5   
FRI 12Z 01-JAN    -3.9    -10.8   
SAT 00Z 02-JAN   -5.3    -11.3   
SAT 12Z 02-JAN   -7.1    -6.9 
SUN 00Z 03-JAN   -2.5    -8.9   
SUN 12Z 03-JAN   -8.2    -16.3 
MON 00Z 04-JAN  -11.9   -22.4 
MON 12Z 04-JAN  -16.4   -26.5   
TUE 00Z 05-JAN   -16.2   -24.6   
TUE 12Z 05-JAN   -19.4   -17.9   
WED 00Z 06-JAN  -13.6   -13.1   
WED 12Z 06-JAN  -14.6    -7.2   
THU 00Z 07-JAN   -8.4    -6.9       
THU 12Z 07-JAN  -10.3   -10.9       
FRI 00Z 08-JAN    -7.4     -8.8       

 

[Curt]

I know its 10 days away, but if Talahassee and Pensacola FL get a snowstorm as progged on 12z GFS....

[WeatherRocker]

Yep, the 12/23 12Z GFS looks pretty cold in the long range. This is what is progged for BNA (temps are Celsius; -19.4C=3F)...

DATE                2m T    850 T

WED 00Z 30-DEC  -2.0    -4.0   
WED 06Z 30-DEC  -3.9    -4.7   
WED 12Z 30-DEC  -4.9    -4.9 
WED 18Z 30-DEC    2.0    -4.9   
THU 00Z 31-DEC   -3.2    -4.1   
THU 12Z 31-DEC   -2.8    -3.9   
FRI 00Z 01-JAN    -0.5    -5.5   
FRI 12Z 01-JAN    -3.9    -10.8   
SAT 00Z 02-JAN   -5.3    -11.3   
SAT 12Z 02-JAN   -7.1    -6.9 
SUN 00Z 03-JAN   -2.5    -8.9   
SUN 12Z 03-JAN   -8.2    -16.3 
MON 00Z 04-JAN  -11.9   -22.4 
MON 12Z 04-JAN  -16.4   -26.5   
TUE 00Z 05-JAN   -16.2   -24.6   
TUE 12Z 05-JAN   -19.4   -17.9   
WED 00Z 06-JAN  -13.6   -13.1   
WED 12Z 06-JAN  -14.6    -7.2   
THU 00Z 07-JAN   -8.4    -6.9       
THU 12Z 07-JAN  -10.3   -10.9       
FRI 00Z 08-JAN    -7.4     -8.8       

If Florida gets snow and we don't, I'm going to cry. 

[Curt]

If Florida gets snow and we don't, I'm going to cry. 

I might drink...

[Coach B]

The Euro began showing it with the 12z run on Monday, Dec. 14, and the GFS began showing it either on the 18z run Monday or the 0z run Tuesday. That continued through the day on Tuesday, then both went back to the Gulf Coast-hugger scenario on Wednesday, before flipping back to the lakes cutter scenario for good on Thursday. IIRC.

Thanks.  So that means the general part of the country can be  identified 6 or 7 days out.  Narrowing the specific region to be effected can begin at days 3 or 4, and rain/snow line can be guessed at about 24 - 36 hours.  Finally, since we live in the mid south and are in the midst of the greatest snow drought in recorded history, excitement is not allowed until the snow actually starts falling. 

[WeatherRocker]

Thanks.  So that means the general part of the country can be  identified 6 or 7 days out.  Narrowing the specific region to be effected can begin at days 3 or 4, and rain/snow line can be guessed at about 24 - 36 hours.  Finally, since we live in the mid south and are in the midst of the greatest snow drought in recorded history, excitement is not allowed until the snow actually starts falling. 

Party pooper.

[Thundersnow]

Yep.  Suppression = no storm.

But, I'm honestly more optimistic about this solution than I would be if the model was showing a blizzard over us at that range at this point.

Just remember how far north the model shifted the Christmas Eve storm over time.

We'll see.  With it being 7+ days away, it's still going to change a lot.  Just a guess... but, I'm thinking the final solution won't be as suppressed as what this particular run is showing.  We'll see in time.

[Curt]

7 day euro is defintely not suppressed, and the 0 degree line would be of benefit for most. Still a week away though.

[Adam]

Where is the 0 degree line on the EURO?

[Curt]

Where is the 0 degree line on the EURO?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html


Let me clarify, @ 168hrs 0 degrees at 850mb(bottom right panel), the 540m thickness is still pretty high (upper right panel) so this MIGHT suggest a cold rain transitioning to frozen precip. Plenty of time to watch. GFS is entirely different with moisture and thickness at this time frame (colder and drier).

[Adam]

Ok i see and i saw the GFS earlier and i hardly even saw a storm in the U.S the only precip was on the gulf coast!!!!!!!!!!