Winter Weather - New Years Eve?

[Eric]

I think it was about this time last week when the GFS started losing the first storm.  On the bright side, the 18z is notorious for being a fluky run.  Until we have run-to-run consistency - again - it's way too early to get overly excited one way or the other.

[Nashville_wx]

00Z GFS and 18DGEX

[Nashville_wx]

Really too far out to post 2 meter temps but this solution shows the storm we are keeping a eye on. So smile for heck of it, what else do we have to do. Timing is going to move a bit as its very hard for models to figure out how fast a intense ULL moves. With the blocking setting up in the west with undercutting jet we could be in the game folks. I would not worry about individual threats, but stay patient and lets get through this week.
There are a ton of threats lurking we just need to see if the short terms plays out as planned.

[Adam]

This drama is pretty much a normal winter season here at TNWX, Adam. We watch snow go north, south, east and west of us, take crap from the GFS and in the end somehow squeeze out some snow. Don't like the drama... move to Minnesota and you won't have to worry about if it will snow.

O trust ,me im staying in this, i love this stuff because if i moved there I would know it was gonna snow all the time and that wouldnt be fun.

[Clay]

Yo quiero.

[Coach B]

Anybody remember what day last week the models began to show the lakes cutter idea for the Christmas Eve storm?   Just wondering how many days out the models figured this one out.  Helps to actually know when to seriously follow these next three or four potential storms.

[Eric]

Anybody remember what day last week the models began to show the lakes cutter idea for the Christmas Eve storm?   Just wondering how many days out the models figured this one out.  Helps to actually know when to seriously follow these next three or four potential storms.

You know better than to ask that question.  EVERYBODY knows you don't start following a storm till it's knocking on your front door.      

[Crockett]

Anybody remember what day last week the models began to show the lakes cutter idea for the Christmas Eve storm?   Just wondering how many days out the models figured this one out.  Helps to actually know when to seriously follow these next three or four potential storms.

The Euro began showing it with the 12z run on Monday, Dec. 14, and the GFS began showing it either on the 18z run Monday or the 0z run Tuesday. That continued through the day on Tuesday, then both went back to the Gulf Coast-hugger scenario on Wednesday, before flipping back to the lakes cutter scenario for good on Thursday. IIRC.

[Adam]

Whats the model output on the storm for today, someone fill me in>

[Eric]

Whats the model output on the storm for today, someone fill me in>

Look for yourself.  Here's the link for your viewing pleasure...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

[Adam]

Not half bad if you ask me. It depends on where you live , right now it looks like alabama border will get the most. Thats good for me.

[Eric]

This one may be toast.  12z shows suppression to the max with cold air a plenty.  This is about 3 or 4 runs that have shown suppression... I keep waiting on run-to-run consistency, but not like this.  The only thing keeping me on board is the fact we're still 7 days out WITH PLENTY OF TIME FOR CHANGE.

[Woodvegas]

On the 12/23 0Z Euro the system is not as suppressed as on the 12/23 12Z GFS. The Euro gives TN plenty of precip, however, temps are progged above freezing. A blend of the Euro and the GFS would give us a nice solution for snow I think.

[Adam]

Im sorry i looked at the wrong storm on the gfs. On the gfs i dont even see a storn around new years eve except on the gulf coast, is that it?

[Eric]

Im sorry i looked at the wrong storm on the gfs. On the gfs i dont even see a storn around new years eve except on the gulf coast, is that it?

Yep.  Suppression = no storm.