Snow for Christmas? Joe Bastardi like it

[Nashville_wx]

 

[tennessee storm09]

if i am reading that 12z gfs right, it still show fozen precip over west and middle tenn.. and looks like the depth of cold would support snow. i am right.

[Eric]

Interesting....12z GFS does paint an interesting picture concerning the white stuff on Christmas.  However, it's still 250+ hours out.  It's definitely something to keep an eye on.

[Nashville_wx]

We may not have to wait that long 

[tennessee storm09]

hey nashville_wx, how are we looking for this clipper system for this upcoming late weekend or early next week. i hear it could phase with the southern jet. whats ur two cents worth on this?

[SnowSeek]

Interesting Crockett, On one hand you ask people to chill out about the models that are just "so far out" (which I agree and is true) and then you turn around and do the same with the NAO/AO "relaxing"....So which is it?  We should just quit forcasting past 3 days, or we should just forecast the information we cherry pick and tell others not to do what I just did? lol

[Crockett]

Interesting Crockett, On one hand you ask people to chill out about the models that are just "so far out" (which I agree and is true) and then you turn around and do the same with the NAO/AO "relaxing"....So which is it?  We should just quit forcasting past 3 days, or we should just forecast the information we cherry pick and tell others not to do what I just did? lol

Do what?? When have I ever asked anyone to "chill out" about models because they're too far out? Are you confusing my posts with someone else? Or have I posted something I forgot I posted?

BTW, regarding the NAO/AO relaxing, as recently as yesterday the ensemble members were showing a VERY good consensus that the AO would rebound and rebound very quickly the second half of the month...however, that no longer seems to be the case. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

[SnowSeek]

Perhaps it was someone else.  It just gets old reading someone tell someone else not to get into speculating about extended forecast and then when the models turn in their favor or what they had in mind....they then start doing the sametype of speculation they were once against! lol

IF it was someone else and I got it wrong the my apologies.  I don't feel like digging through posts to find out. 

[Crockett]

I don't think it was me. Telling someone they shouldn't speculate about what the long-range models are showing would be very uncharacteristic for me, because I like to model hug and am as big a snow-weenie as anyone. I've made several posts on this thread about what the various model runs are showing for Christmas, two weeks out.

[Nashville_wx]

Do what?? When have I ever asked anyone to "chill out" about models because they're too far out? Are you confusing my posts with someone else? Or have I posted something I forgot I posted?

BTW, regarding the NAO/AO relaxing, as recently as yesterday the ensemble members were showing a VERY good consensus that the AO would rebound and rebound very quickly the second half of the month...however, that no longer seems to be the case. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

You picked one model to base this off of. The fact is that the NAO AO has never been a concern ending the month. Once there is snow on the ground we all can dance

[Eric]

Interesting Crockett, On one hand you ask people to chill out about the models that are just "so far out" (which I agree and is true) and then you turn around and do the same with the NAO/AO "relaxing"....So which is it?  We should just quit forcasting past 3 days, or we should just forecast the information we cherry pick and tell others not to do what I just did? lol

Teleconnections are a different breed of thing altogether.  Looking at different teleconnection models is a tadbit different than "model-hugging" - which we're all guilty of.  Since teleconnection changes don't take place overnight, I think looking at longer range models is needed when trying to figure out what's going to happen, which is the absolute opposite of looking at the GFS 300+ hours out.  Those things can't be taken at face value even when their less than 60 hours away from an event, but since teleconnection models depict progged trends, they must be taken into consideration.  

Don't we all just love the winter discussions that come up EVERY year living in the south?  I love it!   

[Nashville_wx]

Teleconnections are a different breed of thing altogether.  Looking at different teleconnection models is a tadbit different than "model-hugging" - which we're all guilty of.  Since teleconnection changes don't take place overnight, I think looking at longer range models is needed when trying to figure out what's going to happen, which is the absolute opposite of looking at the GFS 300+ hours out.  Those things can't be taken at face value even when their less than 60 hours away from an event, but since teleconnection models depict progged trends, they must be taken into consideration.  

Don't we all just love the winter discussions that come up EVERY year living in the south?  I love it!   

Understanding why and what these do is another breed as well. What do positive and negative anomalies mean? What do the locations of the blocking patterns that are associated with the telleconnection mean for this region. Its all one piece of the puzzle

[Crockett]

You picked one model to base this off of. The fact is that the NAO AO has never been a concern ending the month. Once there is snow on the ground we all can dance

No, I don't think the NAO/AO has ever been a concern with the dates that we're all talking about. My only point was that this pattern will not last forever.

[tennessee storm09]

hey crocket, was up man. been doing alot of reading on this upcoming patern. i say 90 percent profesional mets think this pattern will last way beyond in to january, with just a little relax middle jan. quite of few even think it will only get better for us in the south mid south region. i think this has a good chance to become a epic winter. alot of things are coming together to point that way, time will tell

[Crockett]

Far be it for me to disagree with the pros. I have no doubt that, on the whole, this winter is going to bring us as many opportunities for frozen precipitation as any winter we've seen this decade. Again, I'm merely referring to this current setup with an off-the-charts AO accompanied by good blocking in the North Atlantic and a solidly positive PNA, which is as good a setup for us as I think we've seen in a couple of years.