Wintry Weather 12/11-12/12

[Crockett]

BTW for someone like me who knows how the wedge works and the effects it has on certain areas this is something to watch as I have been stating. If some would realize not only is models already doing a horrible job with temps but realize dewpoints are being underprogged by as much as 20 degrees can realize this could be a major deal to watch if moisture arrives earlier than currently forecasted which is possible.

But you're again implying that those who disagree with you don't understand what's going on. I guess I don't have much room to talk since I've had harsh words for those who seemingly root for severe weather outbreaks, but why can't two people have different opinions on a weather situation without it becoming condescending.

[ams30721us]

I agree. Im not against what he is saying about it being a non event for the mid state but for the SE tenn area to say next when a glaze of ice on bridges and elevated surfaces does damage is where I disagree. Thats all my point is Its def. worth watching still in that area.

[Eric]

OHX update:

FEW CI THIS AFTERNOON. MID LVL CLOUDS SPREADING INTO BNA LATE
TONIGHT. VFR CIGS THROUGH 12/18Z BNA-CSV. THEN PCPN EXPECTED IN
MID TN SAT AFTERNOON. ATM WARMS BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
POSSIBLE LIGHT WINTRY MIX AT ONSET.

No big surprise there...... 

However, there is concern across other forums that the current locale of the HP is different than what models have progged....i.e. it hasn't shifted eastward as much.  This could prove troublesome across the more southern areas as it will lessen the amount of WAA off the Gulf.  With that being said, though, with the high sitting where it is, in theory, it's going to shunt most off the moisture southward and eastward until it retrogrades.  Not a big change for us in general, but moreso for the southern folks.  Figured I'd throw that out there.   

[dwagner88]

Temps busted really cold today. We were supposed to be in the mid to upper 40s but we are barely above freezing even at this hour. 35 IMBY.

[ams30721us]

Yep over 10 degrees colder than predicted by models and forecasters no biggie! LOL not to mention Winds already out of the NE...

[Eric]

Clearly, if temps were going to be a problem, at least one NWS office in this area would have hit on it already...

Update from MRX:

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
WILL RETREAT TO THE EAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.  HIGH/MID
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OUT ALLOWING MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
EARLY TONIGHT...THEN CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.  NAM SLOWER TO BRING THE PRECIP IN THAN THE
GFS...BUT SREF GENERALLY LEANS TOWARD THE GFS.  THINK TIMING CLOSER
TO THE SREF/GFS LOOKS REASONABLE...SO WILL TREND THAT WAY.  PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM ENOUGH FOR
ALL LIQUID PRECIP SATURDAY.  WILL GENERALLY GO WITH MAV TEMPS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME MOSTLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR SATURDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE EXHIBITED VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THUS
STILL EXPECTING GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
OF THE LONG TERM WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS. SYSTEM NUMBER ONE STILL ON
SCHEDULE TO PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. HAVE CONTINUED CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIP STILL EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY RAIN AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS/TIME-HEIGHTS DEPICT RELATIVELY DEEP WARM SURFACE
LAYER...SUGGESTING MAINLY RAIN FOR EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
SYSTEM NUMBER TWO STILL ON TRACK TO APPROACH THE REGION IN THE LATE
MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A
RAIN EVENT ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW FOR SOME LOCATIONS. BALANCE OF THE LONG TERM
APPEARS DRY WITH TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM CLIMO FOR THE MOST PART.
FOR TEMPS...MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO MAV/MEX GUIDANCE VALUES
BASED ON ENSEMBLE TRENDS.

[ams30721us]

I have said all alone the earlier the precip begins the better chance. Clearly they are going with a late afternoon timing which may help but again how many times have they busted due to wedges and how they then write these great writeups on how the wedge was stronger than expected etc. Not saying this is the case this time but again why must remain alert atleast through tomorrow midday if any precip is around it will def. be in the wintry form with temps staying in the mid 30s tonight and dew points in the single digits.

[Nashville_wx]

  Come next week we hopefully will have our hands full.

[Eric]

OHX:

FORECAST QUANDARIES...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO OFF THE CNTRL ATLANTIC COAST BY SAT AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...A
GRADUAL INCREASING IN CLOUDINESS EXPECTED AS N TX GULF COAST LOW
DEVELOPS AND BEGINS TO USHER IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE MID
STATE. WILL GO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES FOR LOWS
TONIGHT WITH SKIES APPROACHING BKN ACROSS MID STATE BY 12Z SAT. MAIN
FORECAST QUANDARY CENTERS AROUND IF THERE WILL BE A MIX OF PCPN
SAT MORNING EXTREME SW COUNTIES BEFORE A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN IS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN...SNOW...AND SLEET MIX DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AS TEMPS RISE THRU THE 30S. NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. LOOK FOR RAIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MID
STATE FROM SW TO NE...WITH HIGHEST POPS SW DURING SAT AFTERNOON
THRU AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUN...MAINLY THE E
HALF OF THE MID STATE...AS DEEP MOISTURE PULLS OUT AHEAD OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL LEAN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN A BLENDED
GFS/NAM MOS TEMP VALUES THRU SUN.

MEG:

A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE. THIS SHOULD
ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE AND PROMOTE STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC
ACSENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. AS THIS MOISTURE AND
LIFT OVERRIDE THE RETREATING MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN...SLEET...AND
POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...EASTERN
ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE ON SATURDAY
MORNING AND AREAS FURTHER NORTH BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESSES SHOULD SUPPORT THIS WINTERY MIX
INITIALLY AS MOISTURE ALOFT FALLS INTO A COLD AND VERY DRY
AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE. EXPECT ONLY A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD FOR
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL BEFORE WARM ADVECTION ERODES AWAY THE
RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIRMASS AND TEMPERATURES WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO
RESULT IN A CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AROUND OR
BEFORE NOON ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR AND BY MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. SINCE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF MAJOR
TRAVEL PROBLEMS OR ACCUMULATIONS. BUT A FEW ICY SPOTS...ESPECIALLY
ON ELEVATED ROAD SURFACES...COULD DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD.
AGAIN...ANY ICY SPOTS ON ELEVATED ROAD SURFACES SHOULD BE BRIEF IN
DURATION AND DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
LATER SHIFTS CAN ACCESS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND PROVIDE
UPDATES AS NEEDED. WILL LIKELY HIGHLIGHT THE LIGHT WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL IN AN SPS AND THE LATEST HWO.

[Curt]

Models WAAAAYYY underestimated the amt of dry air to overcome with this system....so much so that the precip had a hard time moving north at all. To even se a sleet pellet upon onset doesnt look likely.

[tennessee storm09]

great point , heck  my dew point now is still at 18.  next system please.  whenever that is.

[Thundersnow]

Where there is precip down in Alabama, it's already well above freezing.

[StormAlertWX]

Raining / Sleeting in Rhea Co. Mtns included... 35 & droppin

[Clay]

About an hour ago, on my way to Brentwood, I briefly headed up to the Dyer Observatory not too far from where I am to see if I could catch any frozen precip. None. Just light rain and 39 up there at a little over 1100ft. It was about 41 at the base of the ridge.