Wintry Weather 12/11-12/12

[Snowman]

Memphis Morning AFD snippet for this potential threat...

THE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
WATCH WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS OR THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY.
WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR AROUND
TO SUPPORT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
SATURDAY. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

Nashville Morning AFD snippet for this potential threat...

.LONG TERM...
HI PRES WILL BUILD E AFTER WED...OVER CWA THU. THEN THE MODELS
DIFFER ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP FOR FRI INTO SAT. DGEX AND
EURO NOT AS FAR N AS GFS. WILL COMPROMISE AND GO WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE.

[Snowman]

Must also mention, ALL local stations are calling for a wintry mix for this system currently. Looks interesting.

[Charles L.]

I'm not sure why OHX mentions that the wintry mix may not be far northward, so far all the model runs have the moisture well into KY wit the freezing line at the TN/AL border.

[tennessee storm09]

just reading latest afd from meg(memphis) sounds pretty intersting for this weekend. this far out saying watch for light snow accumulations. this may be fun watch this one after all.

[Adam]

NOAA has me under a 40% chance of snow Friday and friday night.

[Crockett]

0z run of the GFS looked good, with both 540 line and 2m 0c line all the way to the Alabama border. Then you look at the soundings: freezing rain. 

[tennessee storm09]

think for most of northern miss. and norther ala. will have to watch for fz. what i am seeing on most models looks like the cold air        will be plenty deep to support mostly snow maybe a little sleet on the onset. bears watching.

[Crockett]

For much of the state, you're right. I only looked at the sounding for KCSV. Of course, that's using a literal interpretation of the GFS. It probably has the cold air a little under-estimated, anyway. It usually does with these airmasses in this time frame.

[Eric]

12z GFS says frozen-precip cancel for everyone south of I-40.  2m isotherm straddles the Tennessee Snow Divider.

[tennessee storm09]

mmm that sounds very interesting to me. because were i live i can put my left foot north of i 40 and my right foot south of i 40 the same time. i guess i just have to straddle the interstate.  lol  still 80 plus hours out, it proably change again ne ways. to much cold air lurking just to our north.  we will see.

[Sbeagles]

12z GFS says frozen-precip cancel for everyone south of I-40.  2m isotherm straddles the Tennessee Snow Divider.

If I had a dollar for every time I heard that I would buy me a snow machine and make my own snow lol.

[tennessee storm09]

isnt that the truth sheagles. u and i both could boy one. geez that phrase gets very old. whats crazy about that is heck they even use the i 40 line for some sever weather events too. but i guess u have to have a boundary to go by.

[tennessee storm09]

well yall i really love the pattern shaping up for this wiinter though. and sorry for my last topic, it should read buy not boy lol. i got to learn to fix typo errors, sorry freinds.

[lyngo]

It wouldn't surprise me to see the models trend colder for the weekend event as we go through time.  The polar vortex in Canada looks like it wants to press southward + the NAO looks to be heading solidly negative as well.  Lots of time for this one to go either way.

[Nashville_wx]

Wow the GFS really sings a new whistle at 12Z today as Eric stated. Just wanted to show you all how much. You do not even wana see the Para.

00Z


12Z