Snow possible 1st part of December?

[Clay]

And it has us mild in the medium to long range. This model has no credibility right now IMHO.

[Eric]

18z = junk.

[Clay]

The Euro has been much better than the GFS lately. When the GFS was calling for Thursdays gulf low to skirt the Carolina Coast line the Euro was calling for it to run west of the Appalachians. The GFS was wrong then. Now despite a sharply negative NAO/AO and positive PNA, its hinting at warmer than Normal temps in the Eastern US.

[snowdog]

Things look to be coming together to support a possibly fun December.  The models usually go through a chaotic period as we change from one pattern to the next. 

[Nashville_wx]

Whoa Whoa, everyone hold on. Lots of info flying. The first thing is the GFS has been doing a good job so far this fall. Clay its a bit too early to start bashing the GFS. It has picked up on trends and pattern fairly well. Also if you have been looking at the Ensemble data it has been pretty variable after 144hours. Its not so much how the GFS is performing its find the feature that it "is" handling correctly along with the Euro. Right now the 12Z GFS does show us in negative heights during the next 15 days. As some have seen many have now once again reversed there calls just because we see the GFS move heights into the SW first. This is going to be a normal progression and it is going to take that to happen to get things right here. As per the 12Z OP run the NAO is looking to tank. Blocking is going to setup that is a fact. The Omega type blocking in the Pacific will setup as shown at 500mb but its location has been shifted a bit west moving the lowest heights in from the PNW. From my eyes I like what I see. Tomorrow is the first day of December its still early. Ill make some posts tonight on the 00Z runs but I like our odds for a December Snow. Possibly before the 10th. Time to watch from 166 in. Notice how this setup can work for us. Also Friday Night into Saturday is something to note. Makes you kinda want e the SW bias the GFS tends to have. But wait the Euro is showing moisture streaming in @ 700mb @ 850mb

[Clay]

Yes, this fall the GFS has done fairly respectable but I was mentioning inconsistancy the past couple weeks constantly going back and forth between warm and cold and east and west with lows which I think is a valid point because it's really the truth.

I think it's way too early to get worked up about Saturday's low. GFS ensembling has been consistantly forecasting cold and dry for the weekend. The main member of the GFS is the odd one out.

[Nashville_wx]

As for the last couple weeks the GFS has had its problems but so has every other model. If you at its actually verification its not been terrible. As for getting worked up about Satuday you right it is too early but as I said, its the latest and greatest thing to watch. Models are offering us different solutions but I am interested to see if how it handles the feature heading up to the weekend

12Z GFS


12Z GFS Par.


18DGEX is interesting. What we are watching right now is moisture and strong vort coming through. Also note that this is coming in as 850mb temps are -10C+ .

[Clay]

I guess the 0Z will be interesting for us.

[Nashville_wx]

Yup its rolling out right now.

[Nashville_wx]

A snip from the NWS in what im referring to. Have not even had a chance to look at todays AFD

NEW EURO AND GFS IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SYSTEM SHEARING THROUGH
EASTERN TN ON FRI NIGHT PRODUCING A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW FOR OUR
PLATEAU COUNTIES. WITHOUT MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IT`S TOO EARLY TO
BITE...BUT LOW POPS WERE INTRODUCED AS EVEN WITHOUT LARGER SCALE
FORCING FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW COULD GENERATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

[StormAlertWX]

MORRISTOWN AFD:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...REST OF TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WINDY CONDITIONS AND SOME
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM.

COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WILL CAUSE THE RAIN
SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. A LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE ACTUAL TRACK AND TIMING WILL DETERMINE
HOW MUCH SNOW OCCURS.

  SNOW (:

[ams30721us]

 

Wake up Southeast Tenn/ NW GA and N AL:

6z GFS shows accumulating snowfall Friday Ngt into Saturday. Not ready to bite just yet but with Nogaps/Euro/Canadian all showing the system it will be hard to ignore the rest of the week and will have to begin to get mention.

[Charles L.]

We need the NW trend to occur and help most of us out here in Middle TN. Like Clay, Cameron, and Nashvillewx mentioned last night...it looks like that is a strong possibility!

[Snowman]

Def interesting stuff. Chatter is little from NWS offices so far, though most of the offices are mentioning in morning afd's that this scenario is a possibility. Need some model consistency.

[Adam]

hey guys where do you get to look at those maps all the maps im looking at have it going south of us