Winter 2009-2010

[Crockett]

Lol. It's gone. Surprise, surprise.

I'm not sure why you're dogging a professional who obviously knows what he's doing, but the run of the GFS referenced by Jeff Ray wasn't the only run showing the deep trough around that time frame. The GFS has been showing that off and on for several days now.

[Thundersnow]

As memory serves, I usually expect the first major cooldown/autumn blast around about September 20.  A night or two with lows down in the 40s I don't think is unusual at all in the second half of September.  So, considering the law of averages in climatology, those are believable model runs in the long range.

But, anything past 240 hours/10 days has to really be taken with a grain of salt anyway.

[CookevilleWeatherGuy]

  I think we're all ready for a cool down! The boring days of highs around 80° with spotty showers has gotten quite old.

Don't forget..it is 9/11..never forget! 

Glad to be back at Tennessee WX....missed you guys/gals!

[Curt]

Chucks forecast for this winter looks mighty good! Here is the link.
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=205478

Well that would be nice! Honestly, I am ready for winter in the months its supposed to be winter, Dec, Feb, and especially January. What has happened to Jan recently? We havent had a decent winter event since 2000 here in the Memphis area. I dont think Nashville has had a decent event in Jan since 2003.

Dont get me wrong, I will take a March snow storm, but geez it melts so quick. Bring on a good old fashioned January winter storm!

[Nashville_wx]

I'm not sure why you're dogging a professional who obviously knows what he's doing, but the run of the GFS referenced by Jeff Ray wasn't the only run showing the deep trough around that time frame. The GFS has been showing that off and on for several days now.

I do not think he was dogging anyone. He was just showing what the OP GFS has changed its look at that time frame. Todays 12ZGFS @ H500

[Nashville_wx]

Also notice last nights run of the ECMWF. I will not post them but the 00Z and 06Z GFS is also coming back in line with the Ensemble mean. Either way some pretty good agreement in the 8+ day range as show by the CPC.

[Coach B]

Most of the people I associate with come to me with any weather questions they have.  However, reading the info on Chuck's forcast on Eastern gives me a headache.  Man, that's WAY over my head.

[Nashville_wx]

The PDO is the player to watch right now. We want to be at least Neutral or Positive.

[StormNine]

I got a little winter outlook and some stuff on my blogspot.  Along with my fun winter predictions for West KY.

[Thundersnow]

I haven't looked to see what the long range GFS says, but Accuweather today is showing highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s around September 23-24 (about 10 days from now).

[Nashville_wx]

I haven't looked to see what the long range GFS says, but Accuweather today is showing highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s around September 23-24 (about 10 days from now).

500mb heights will be souring in the west with western ridge stretching all the way in to BC. 850mb flow becomes NW and 850mb temps could drop as low as 4C

[Thundersnow]

Interesting article...

U.S. Northeast May Have Coldest Winter in a Decade

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Northeast may have the coldest winter in a decade because of a weak El Nino, a warming current in the Pacific Ocean, according to Matt Rogers, a forecaster at Commodity Weather Group.

“Weak El Ninos are notorious for cold and snowy weather on the Eastern seaboard,” Rogers said in a Bloomberg Television interview from Washington. “About 70 percent to 75 percent of the time a weak El Nino will deliver the goods in terms of above-normal heating demand and cold weather. It’s pretty good odds.”

Warming in the Pacific often means fewer Atlantic hurricanes and higher temperatures in the U.S. Northeast during January, February and March, according to the National Weather Service. El Nino occurs every two to five years, on average, and lasts about 12 months, according to the service.

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-long positions, or bets prices will rise, in New York heating oil futures in the week ended Sep. 22, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data Sept. 25.

“It could be one of the coldest winters, or the coldest, winter of the decade,” Rogers said.

I'm not sure what that necessarily implies for the Southeast, but it is interesting, nonetheless. 

[tennessee storm09]

just checked out henry s forecast on accuweather. he had us in the ice storm zone,  ouch..  we dont need those. much prefer snow over ice ne day. but the big snow   zone was just to our north. but he had us in below temps with above precip. so hope that turns in to more snow events than that lousy ice. we dont need that.

[Clay]

Drool. Henry "Hype"asity's winter forecast.

[Curt]

HM's forecast for snowfall in selected TN cities:

                                                 Normal    Winter 09-10
BRISTOL-JHNSN CTY-KNGSPRT,TN   16               24
CHATTANOOGA, TN                        4                 7
KNOXVILLE, TN                             12               18
MEMPHIS, TN                                5                 8
NASHVILLE, TN                             10               15
OAK RIDGE,TN                              10               15

HM isn't always so accurate, but I will take it!