Winter 2009-2010

[Tom23]

Yeah, the forecasters are predicting flurries, and with the ground being warm from the above freezing days we have had this past week, it won't amount to anything if it is indeed flurries.

[Thundersnow]

Here we go again... 




The GFS teaser couldn't stay quiet for long.

[snowman72]

LOOKING GOOD IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST BUT STILL A LITTLE EARLY YET, WHAT IS EVERYONE ELSE SEEING.

[jmundie]

Storm shunted southeast on the 6z

I like the jan 29-30 period... we've definitely got a good shot there, even for a possible triple phaser.

We just have to be patient. Once this thing gets inside the truncation period by 24 hours or so, the solution will start solidifying. Its all about timing of the shortwave and the large polar vortex. If you look at 500mb comparing the 0z and 6z gfs, you can see how different the solutions are right before truncation.

And we all know that as unaccurate as the gfs is at 180, it gets WAY worse after that.

0z canadian has the storm, and at 168, its setting up pretty well on the Euro.

I'd say by Saturday 12z, if we're starting to see consistency for the storm, I'll starte getting excited.

[jmundie]

Per 12z gfs, it's about time to start a thread for a major in the 28th-30th period.

Verbatim, at 10 to 1 ratios, gfs gives us 5 to 7 in Nashville more points south and west.

Has veryone all ready cancelledwinter? Too many disappointments? I thought for sure nashvillewx would be all over this one.

[toastido]

Per 12z gfs, it's about time to start a thread for a major in the 28th-30th period.

Verbatim, at 10 to 1 ratios, gfs gives us 5 to 7 in Nashville more points south and west.

Has veryone all ready cancelledwinter? Too many disappointments? I thought for sure nashvillewx would be all over this one.

I don't want to sound like the voice of reason or anything, but I wouldn't take much stock in the models over 3-4 days out.  Especially not 7-10 days out.  You'll just be setting yourself up for a letdown, IMO. 

Note that this is not a flame or a bash, but I just don't think we can trust the models that far out.

[Thundersnow]

Remember that the dusting storm a week ago was an 8-9 incher on the GFS a week beforehand.

It's definitely worth keeping an eye on though.

[Eric]

Per 12z gfs, it's about time to start a thread for a major in the 28th-30th period.

Verbatim, at 10 to 1 ratios, gfs gives us 5 to 7 in Nashville more points south and west.

Has veryone all ready cancelledwinter? Too many disappointments? I thought for sure nashvillewx would be all over this one.

I think your two previous posts explain WHY we haven't started a thread yet.  There's still model uncertainty...you said it yourself, the 6z was shunted south and the 12z puts us in the bulls-eye.  I know I'm not going to start one (I think I started the last one...or renamed it...and it went to poop).  I think, too, that we're more interested in the severe threat.  Not to dicount a potential GFS winter wonderland, but hail and tornadoes are certainly more verifiable, at least in these parts.

[Kevin]

Per 12z gfs, it's about time to start a thread for a major in the 28th-30th period.

Verbatim, at 10 to 1 ratios, gfs gives us 5 to 7 in Nashville more points south and west.

Has veryone all ready cancelledwinter? Too many disappointments? I thought for sure nashvillewx would be all over this one.

Actually...you have to remember the QPF on those maps are valid for the 12 hours previous to the indicate time...not the 12 hours following. So that .5 to .7" of QPF isn't occurring after 2m temperatures drop below freezing...much if not all is occurring beforehand (its a little harder to know for sure the exact amount since you're only getting 12 hour data...but surely not all of it is with temperatures well into the 40s at the 180 hour period when that QPF starts falling)...

Just something to keep in mind for everybody...

[jmundie]

Right, I'm not saying it's an imminent threat, but there's a giant polar vortex and a shortwave that has been back and forth catching the northern stream.

The models, even 3-4 days out, are not great with specifics. My point is merely that the pieces are all on the table, an the models have been consistant in showing all the pieces, it's just timing that's gonna be an issue. But that won't be worked out until probably 48 hours out.

Were right inside of truncation, which to me is about the time to start watching and discussing... 850 temps are all ready borderline as te precip starts, at least in middle tennesee (don't have bufkit but looks like upper 30s.

It could be a bust, sure, but it's definitely something to start watching is my only point.

[Nashville_wx]

I might be barking tomorrow everyone. 12Z and 00Z tonight are starting to show some encouraging signs of things to come. I have sat back over the last week and been pretty quiet.I think the warm up is going to be short lived . Major changes in the extended could occur over the next couple days. Figured I would go out on the limb. Round 2 is coming 

   There is a legit threat now, and its time to slowly ramp things up. No need for 100 pages of discussion. If this threat becomes more credible I will start a new thread as long as the discussion stays on topic. The H5 pattern analyst would be the focus to start.

[Franklin SnowKing]

Well it looks like we are moving in the right direction to get cold and snow. Today's CPC 8 to 14 day outlook has us below normal temps and above normal precip!

[Sbeagles]

Certainly looks like were moving into a wetter pattern. Now where did we put those frigid temperatures  ??

[Kevin]

Certainly looks like were moving into a wetter pattern. Now where did we put those frigid temperatures  ??

Unfortunately the trade off with the wetter pattern is the more active Pacific and Subtropical Jet...as part of the current El Nino...which can make milder temperatures result. Its going to be getting the timing just right between this active jet pattern alongside a shot of arctic air...as if the Pacific jet remains strong arctic air intrusions will certainly be more brief than earlier this month...narrowing the window for opportunity.

On the downside...this pattern can scream ice potential in addition to...perhaps instead of...snow. We have to watch it carefully...

[jmundie]

Er 18z triple phase still a possibility. Truncation obviously causing issues.

If this cold verifies post 1/29 storm, would set us up for maybe seeral frozen events in a row.

I'm getting excited about feb... Trough axis looks better with disturbances lined up across the pacific.