4/23/09 Isolated Storms Today

[CT_Yankee]

Looks like a little line of storms traversing across west Middle TN.

Lightning starting to show up.

[Thundersnow]

Hail marker popping up in northern Giles County.

[Thundersnow]

Pretty impressive instabilities today, especially showing up on the 12Z NAM.

This is for 7:00 PM CDT this evening...

LI: -6.7
CAPE: 3160.8
EHI:  4.4
Supercell Potential:  96.2%

Those numbers are so crazy that I don't know whether to believe them or not. 

Of course, I only know just enough to be dangerous and get myself in trouble. 

Moisture issues and the lack of a triggering mechanism, like a low and a cold front, will probably mean not a whole lot to worry about.  Some things could be popping up today though, as is already evident on the radar.

[Thundersnow]

OHX HWO from this morning...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
507 AM CDT THU APR 23 2009

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-241030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
507 AM CDT THU APR 23 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS OVER
THE MID STATE MAY BE BRIEFLY STRONG WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. NO
ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

[toastido]

Pretty impressive instabilities today, especially showing up on the 12Z NAM.

This is for 7:00 PM CDT this evening...

LI: -6.7
CAPE: 3160.8
EHI:  4.4
Supercell Potential:  96.2%

Those numbers are so crazy that I don't know whether to believe them or not. 

Of course, I only know just enough to be dangerous and get myself in trouble. 

Moisture issues and the lack of a triggering mechanism, like a low and a cold front, will probably mean not a whole lot to worry about.  Some things could be popping up today though, as is already evident on the radar.

Well, just be glad those numbers weren't there on good friday, or it could have been much MUCH worse.

[Eric]

Pretty impressive instabilities today, especially showing up on the 12Z NAM.

This is for 7:00 PM CDT this evening...

LI: -6.7
CAPE: 3160.8
EHI:  4.4
Supercell Potential:  96.2%

Those numbers are so crazy that I don't know whether to believe them or not. 

Of course, I only know just enough to be dangerous and get myself in trouble. 

Moisture issues and the lack of a triggering mechanism, like a low and a cold front, will probably mean not a whole lot to worry about.  Some things could be popping up today though, as is already evident on the radar.

Holy *****!  Thank goodness we don't have a surface low spinning to our west or we could have been in some serious trouble.  As crazy as those numbers are though, we have some seriously dry air to work with.  Low 50 dew points dominate the midstate area, plus with the surface temps already in the mid 70s, gives us some serious dew point depression which will keep any storm that decides to fire elevated.

[Cameron K.]

Just about to get a storm here. Doesn't look impressive yet, but I bet once it gets a chance to build up somebody could end up with a good half inch.

EDIT: Ah ha, speaking of the devil, look how big they've grown in the past 15mins. Missed me by a mile.

[Eric]

Nice, balmy 82F here in Smyrna.  Feels absolute wonderful outside...got the ceiling fans a turnin' and the windows open.

[toastido]

81/60 here with nothing on the radar to speak of (for now).

[CT_Yankee]

I'm currently in Franklin.  Had a thunderstorm pass over me about a half hour ago.  A good downpour with a few vivid lightning strikes.

[Eric]

82/54 with an isolated storm passing to my south traveling east.  Got a quick 2 minute video of the cell...caught nothing but a bolt of lightning or two with a rumble of thunder.

[Timothy]

Some "hefty" cloud to ground lightning and rain in the area currently.

[Eric]

Currently, I'm sandwiched between two small, but intense AND LOUD cells.  My dog is going crazy as the wife and young-un are trying to take a nap.

[CT_Yankee]

Currently, I'm sandwiched between two small, but intense AND LOUD cells.  My dog is going crazy as the wife and young-un are trying to take a nap.

Yeah, I noticed those cells continued to pick up strength as they passed and headed towards your area.

[CT_Yankee]

WATCH OUT FOR....not much.   



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0546
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0203 PM CDT THU APR 23 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/EASTERN TN...EXTREME NORTHEAST AL AND
   NORTHWESTERN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
   
   VALID 231903Z - 232100Z
   
   BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
   THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING
   HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.
   
   THE BAND OF MID-LEVEL CONVECTION THAT MOVED EAST ACROSS THE REGION
   EARLIER TODAY HAS LIKELY MOISTENED PROFILES ALONG THE BASE OF THE
   ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.  AS A RESULT...DESPITE SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...THERMAL BUOYANCY HAS
   LIKELY INCREASED/INHIBITION DECREASED IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT
   DRAPED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND NORTHWEST GA.
   
   ANOTHER BAND OF MID-LEVEL CONVECTION...BEING DRIVEN BY PERSISTENT
   WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION...HAS DEEPENED ACROSS MIDDLE
   TN AND LIGHTNING HAS INCREASED SINCE 18Z.  LATEST 4KM NSSL-WRF...NAM
   AND RUC SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM
   FRONT INTO NORTHWEST GA...INCLUDING THE ATLANTA METRO AREA THROUGH
   00Z.
   
   12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT THE REGION RESIDES ALONG EASTERN PERIPHERY
   OF VERY STEEP 700-500 MILLIBAR LAPSE RATES /GREATER THAN 7.5 DEGREES
   C PER KM/.  EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-40 KNOTS COUPLED WITH
   MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED STRONG STORMS...BUT
   LONGEVITY OF ANY GIVEN UPDRAFT WILL BE TEMPORALLY SHORT OWING TO
   MODEST INSTABILITY.  STRONGER STORMS MAY YIELD HAIL...GENERALLY UP
   TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS.
   
   PROSPECTS FOR ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL PRECLUDE A WEATHER
   WATCH.
   
   ..RACY.. 04/23/2009