4/6 Snow Chance & Possible Freeze

[Curt]

It looks like we will see yet another late freeze this year with below freezing temps on Tues am. Some temps are forecast to be in the middle 20's in rural areas. Just for fun the GFS is kicking out snow flurries for most and even snow showers for the mts. Get ready to cover those plants Monday night and Tuesday morning!

[Cameron K.]

Typical last freeze is in mid April. I wish we wouldn't have anymore. Snow flurries? Careful now, S word is forbidden until October. 

[Chelsea in Tn]

I saw that - I have several cool weather veggies up plus strawberries with flowers on them so i had beeter make sure to protect them Monday night...

I thought winter was over ?   Oh yeah - forgot living in middle TN.... the weather can change in the blink of an eye...

[Charles Loring]

Well, I think we need to start a thread about this potential wintry senerio for Monday night. The models have been bring that strong system to our west into our region Sunday, and we do have a Slight risk of severe storms for areas north of I-40. But the big story is going to be the snow we could see Monday night when it swings its way around through Middle TN and South Central KY. Charlie Neese even said that minor accumulations could occur in the northern and eastern parts of the mid-state. Welcome back winter!

[ams30721us]

    

Wow woke up to WSB-TV-Atlanta CHIEF MET GLENN BURNS ON THE AIR THIS MORNING! haha prob. Brad, Karen, and I guess David have the weekend off or something or its sweep week! Anyway his opening weather he highlights the next storm which he is calling a MEGA STORM his exact words were a Mega storm will affect the area Sunday Night bringing a threat for severe weather then and a chance for snow showers and flurries all the way down to metro Atlanta and the chance for some accum for northern areas where I am. (Of course I know where he got this from)

NWS FORECAST for Dalton,GA today:

Monday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Windy, with a west wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Cloudy and windy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

and snippett of morning discussion:

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL EITHER EXIT THE AREA SE OF MCN EARLY MONDAY OR HAVE
JUST EXITED THE AREA SE OF MCN. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIP WILL BE ENDING EXCEPT
FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR N GA FROM MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE UPPER SYSTEM. THAT MOISTURE WILL SURGE S MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. FAR N GA COULD
GET SOME ACCUMULATIONS IF THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE WHEN THE AIRMASS
GETS COLD ENOUGH. WINDY CONDITIONS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S FOR N GA AND WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S ACROSS THE AREA WITH MUCH LESS WIND.

[servocrow]

Pertinent OHX morning AFD info:

GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY WITH MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES MON-
MON NIGHT. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW ACR MID TN TOWARD
THE AL BORDER MON-MON NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SNOW WL TAPER AFT
MIDNIGHT WEST/SOUTH. COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS MON AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COLD TEMPS LINGER
INTO TUE BUT EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUN.

LONG TERM (WED-FRI)...
TEMPS WL MODERATE WED WITH UPSTREAM LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT AND
WEAKENING CANADIAN HIGH. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
WITH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. NOT AS COLD BEHIND FRONT FRI.

Zone forecast for my part of the county:

Monday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Windy, with a west northwest wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday Night: A slight chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Windy, with a northwest wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

[dwagner88]

We had a dusting of snow here on April 17th last year, so I know it can happen but still. How funny would it be if KCHA went the whole winter without any accumulating snow and then got accumulations in April?!

[Cameron K.]

I thought Curt put out a thread on this a couple of days ago. Anyways, it is something to watch as a late season dusting. BTW Winter is not welcome back. I have plants that need to be outside and the general vegitation(trees, grass, shrubs ect.) is not going to like this.

[StormAlertWX]

12Z GFS shows a prolonged period of Snow Showers Monday into Tuesday evening?

00Z Last night showed same. & Accumulations
http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_KCHA.txt

[Curt]

12Z GFS shows a prolonged period of Snow Showers Monday into Tuesday evening?

00Z Last night showed same. & Accumulations
http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_KCHA.txt

Accumulations anywhere outside parts of the plateau and higher elevations of ETn willbe difficult to come by. Ground temps this late would require fast rates of snowfall which dont seem to be in the cards at this time via a major storm. Most temps are above freexing when the snow falls from Memphis to Nashville to Knoxville, and rates will be light outside of a heavier snow shower. If it materializes, the significance will be that its snowing in April once again as in '07. Its rare but not unheard of. It should be a beuatiful sight though. Personally, I cant wait until be have a string of temps in the '70s and dry wx.

[Clay]

x2. I don't think anyone is surprised that accumulations aren't really being mentioned for any of the big 3 cities (MEM, BNA, TYS)
BTW, the record low for BNA on Monday Night (6/6) is 28º... BNA's forecast low is 29º...KMEM's record low is 32º and forecast is 30º. There may be record lows.

[Cameron K.]

Accumulations anywhere outside parts of the plateau and higher elevations of ETn willbe difficult to come by. Ground temps this late would require fast rates of snowfall which dont seem to be in the cards at this time via a major storm. Most temps are above freexing when the snow falls from Memphis to Nashville to Knoxville, and rates will be light outside of a heavier snow shower. If it materializes, the significance will be that its snowing in April once again as in '07. Its rare but not unheard of. It should be a beuatiful sight though. Personally, I cant wait until be have a string of temps in the '70s and dry wx.

Amen to that man. I'm a bit concerned of the negative this will have on the vegitation outside. Certainly a code red for folks trying to harden off their plants.

[StormAlertWX]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
429 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2009



CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
429 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2009 /329 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE..

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE BY
SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SNOWFALL
REPORTS POSSIBLY NEEDED ON MONDAY NIGHT.

[Charles Loring]

OHX mentions some accumulation for my area...less then 1/2"!

[servocrow]

OHX morning disco

COLD FRONT RUSHES THROUGH THE MIDSTATE THIS EVENING. LINGERING
MOISTURE AND MUCH COLDER AIR SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHWEST CORNER LATE IN THE NIGHT.

NORTHWEST FLOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT KEEP DEEP MOISTURE
AROUND MON-MONDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD ATMOSPHERE DURING THIS PERIOD.
MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMS.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN UPSLOPE
AREAS. DECREASING MOISTURE FM THE SOUTHWEST TUE...AND WARMER WED.
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS THU-FRI...WITH THUNDERSTORMS

MEG:

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF W
TN. SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIP WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW HOWEVER
IF THE CURRENT MODEL DATA IS CORRECT...ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 1500 FEET. SNOW SHOULD MELT AS IT FALLS THROUGH THE WARMER
LAYER BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY IT MAY NOT...THUS THE MENTION OF
LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE OPTIMISTIC IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S. IT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG THE TROUGH EVEN DEEPER OVER THE MIDSOUTH
ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR
OVER THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT
SNOW COULD OCCUR AGAIN OVER PARTS OF W TN AND PERHAPS NE MS. WORTH
MENTIONING AGAIN...PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN NOW TO PREPARE COLD
SENSITIVE VEGETATION FOR THIS UPCOMING KILLING FREEZE. A FREEZE
WATCH WILL ALSO BE ISSUED THIS MORNING.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WARM ADVECTION
TAKES PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN
ADDITIONAL FREEZE MAY OCCUR FOR MANY LOCATIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.