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...WINTER WEATHER TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH....A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH TODAY. THE FRONT WILLEVENTUALLY STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSUREDEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL SPREADMOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDSOUTH. COLD...ARCTIC AIR WILLFILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COMBINATIONOF THE COLD AIR AND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONGTHE GULF COAST WILL PRODUCE WINTER PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THEMIDSOUTH BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY....WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGHTHURSDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAYEVENING.RAIN WILL BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS ANDSOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZINGRAIN OR SLEET SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET WILLCONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ACHANGEOVER TO SNOW COULD OCCUR IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH.ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SLEET OR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
.DISCUSSION...WOW...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A FEW HOURS MAKE. AFTEREXPERIENCING...WARM SPRING-TIME TEMPERATURES...A RETURN TO WINTERIS EXPECTED TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE PLUMMETING BEHIND A COLD FRONTTHAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPERATURES HAVEALREADY FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTARKANSAS. LOOKING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE20S ACROSS MUCH OF MISSOURI. THIS COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TOMOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA TODAY. HIGHS WILL OCCUR AT 12Z...ANDTEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECTTEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S BY THIS AFTERNOON.THE BIG STORY WILL BE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TOTALLYCHANGED AROUND FROM LAST NIGHT/S RUN. THE FRONT THAT IS MOVINGTHROUGH THE MIDSOUTH NOW WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE GULF COASTTONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THEFRONT. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.THIS WILL SET UP AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN OVER THE CWA AND WILLBRING WINTER PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. RAIN WILLBEGIN TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH LATETHIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN ORFREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS TEMPERATURESDROP TO THE FREEZING MARK. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THEMIDSOUTH BEHIND THE LOW AS IT PUSHES EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT.THIS WILL CHANGE THE FREEZING RAIN OVER TO SLEET OR SNOW FOR AREASNORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. HOWEVER...MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL LIKELY STAYALL RAIN. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTSFALL SLIGHTLY NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER INCH WITH SOME SLEETACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM INTERSTATE 40 TO THE SOUTH.AREAS JUST NORTH MAY SEE MORE OF A SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AROUND2 INCHES. FOR THIS REASON...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUEDFOR EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND MOST OF WEST TENNESSEE. A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THEMISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONSOF 2 INCHES. FOR EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND PHILLIPS COUNTYAR...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ICEACCUMULATIONS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH.THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT THURSDAYAFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TODEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS MAY BEANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST AS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR INPLACE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WINTER PRECIP IN PARTS OF THECWA AS WELL. ICE...SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY ALSO KEEPTEMPERATURES DOWN. HOWEVER...THE ONE CAVEAT MAY BE THAT THE LOW TRACKS A BITFURTHER NORTH THAN THE ONE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY THUS SOME WARMERAIR MAY GET PULLED INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUEINTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST. FORNOW...TOO MANY QUESTIONS THUS HAVE LEFT AN ALL LIQUID FORECAST FORNOW. ALTHOUGH HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD DURING THE TIMEPERIOD.BEYOND SATURDAY...MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS FOR THE EXTENDED.SEVERAL IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN IN THEFORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS WELL. FORNOW...HAVE LEFT EXTENDED AS IS.
Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN334 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2009...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN MIDDLE TN ONTHURSDAY....A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING. MUCHCOLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THECOLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM IS EXPECTED TOBECOME QUITE ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS THE COLD FRONTSTALLS TO OUR SOUTH...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE COLDERAIR AT THE SURFACE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.HENCE...AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE STAGE WILL BESET FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MIDDLE TN.THE WATCH INCLUDES AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF ACAMDEN...DICKSON TO CLARKSVILLE LINE.TNZ005-006-022>025-111645-/O.NEW.KOHX.WS.A.0001.090312T1200Z-090313T0000Z/STEWART-MONTGOMERY-BENTON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-334 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2009...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGHTHURSDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGHTHURSDAY EVENING.THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG ANDNORTHWEST OF A CAMDEN...DICKSON TO CLARKSVILLE LINE.SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATCH AREA ONTHURSDAY MORNING. THE SNOW AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYWITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. THE SNOW AND SLEETWILL TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY EVENING.A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.$$21--------------------------------------------------------------------------------Hazardous Weather OutlookHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN545 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2009TNZ005-006-022>025-121030-STEWART-MONTGOMERY-BENTON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-545 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2009...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGHTHURSDAY EVENING...THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHTA MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET COULD BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHTAS A WINTER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES OF THE AREA. ONLY MINOR ICE ORSNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAYTHE FOLLOWING WEATHER HAZARD(S) ARE IN EFFECT......WINTER STORM WATCH THURSDAY...A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAYAND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA...WITHSIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY EVENING.AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...IN ADDITION TO MINOR ICEACCUMULATION. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL VERY MUCH IN THE DEVELOPINGSTAGES SO STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER UPDATES.MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV ORBY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGEDTO REPORT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICEIN NASHVILLE.$$--------------------------------------------------------------------------------Special Weather StatementSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED EXPIRATION OF PRODUCTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN339 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2009TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-111700-STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...CAMDEN...ERIN...WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...KINGSTON SPRINGS...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...ALLARDT...LINDEN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...FAIRFIELD GLADE...SHELBYVILLE...TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...TRACY CITY...ALTAMONT...COALMONT...SPENCER...WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI339 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2009...WINTRY PRECIP LIKELY FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDDLE TN ONTHURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING. MUCHCOLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THECOLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM IS EXPECTED TOBECOME QUITE ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS THE COLD FRONTSTALLS TO OUR SOUTH...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERRUN THE COLDERAIR AT THE SURFACE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE STAGE WILL BE SETFOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS ROUGHLY THENORTHWESTERN HALF OF MIDDLE TN. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...AREASINCLUDING CLARKSVILLE...ERIN AND DOVER...WILL SEE THEPRECIPITATION FALL AS MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET. FURTHERSOUTHEAST...ACROSS THE CENTERVILLE...NASHVILLE...LAFAYETTE...JAMESTOWNAND MURFREESBORO AREAS...A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAINAPPEARS LIKELY. ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MIDDLE TN AND THE SOUTHERNPLATEAU...A RAIN SLEET MIX WITH TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZINGSHOULD PREVAIL.AT THIS POINT IN TIME...ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW SLEET AND ICE AREPOSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE MID STATE INCLUDINGTHE NORTHERN PLATEAU ON THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WE ARESTILL IN THE EARLY STAGES OF THIS DEVELOPING WINTER SITUATION SOACCUMULATION AMOUNTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...IT DOESAPPEAR THAT 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSSNORTHWESTERN AREAS....WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SLEET AND ICEACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDDLE TN.CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ON FRIDAY AS WARMER TEMPS AND THEN ACHANCE OF RAIN PREVAILS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES...WATCHES...WARNINGS OR ADVISORIESPERTAINING TO THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER THREAT.
AFDOHXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN329 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2009.DISCUSSION...ANALYSIS PLACING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN THISMORNING...WITH CANADIAN AIRMASS MOVING IN RAPIDLY BEHIND. ASSOCIATEDBAND OF PCPN GENERALLY BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT IS AHEAD OFFREEZING TEMPS. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT.COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL SOUTH/EAST TODAY...AS WILL DEEP MOISTURESOURCE...WITH SFC/LL CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING SOUTH. EXPECTED SCATTEREDSHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME FEW AND FAR BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOONAS TEMPS DROP.COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN TO NEAR THE GULF COAST TONIGHT WHERE IT STALLSTOWARD 12Z THURSDAY. ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND SERIES OF IMPULSESHOWEVER WILL LIFT DEEPER MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHTAND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL CREATE WINTERY PCPN SCENERIO ASSTRONG CAA CONTINUES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITHMOISTURE ADVECTION IN FULL SWING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TEMPERATUREPROFILES INDICATING THE NORTHWEST MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND/OR ICING...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EXCEPT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST IS LOOKINGAT SLEET...SNOW...FREEZING RAIN MIX. FIRST THOUGHTS ARE NORTHWEST COULDSEE 3+ INCHES THROUGH POSSIBLY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE ELSEWHEREICE ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1 QUARTER AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AREPOSSIBLE. THUS A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTFOR THURSDAY.DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OUT THURSDAY EVENING BUT TEMPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTEDTO FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING EXCEPT IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST. LINGERINGVERY LIGHT PCPN COULD RESULT IN CONTIUED MIX NORTH WITH LIGHT FREEZINGRAIN/DRIZZLE PARTS OF SOUTH.ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL KEEP BRINGING MOISTURE UP INTO THE MID-SOUTHFRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT DEVELOPING INVERTED LL TROUGH IN THE GULFAND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP BRING WARMING TREND TO THE AREATHUS ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THAT PERIOD BUT WINTERWEATHER THREAT SHOULD END EARLY FRIDAY.UPPER LOW IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY MAY EVEN BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THEAREA ON TUESDAY AS WELL.&&
AFDMEGAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN629 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2009.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.&&.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 433 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2009/WOW...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A FEW HOURS MAKE. AFTEREXPERIENCING...WARM SPRING-TIME TEMPERATURES...A RETURN TO WINTERIS EXPECTED TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE PLUMMETING BEHIND A COLD FRONTTHAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPERATURES HAVEALREADY FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTARKANSAS. LOOKING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE20S ACROSS MUCH OF MISSOURI. THIS COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TOMOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA TODAY. HIGHS WILL OCCUR AT 12Z...ANDTEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECTTEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S BY THIS AFTERNOON.THE BIG STORY WILL BE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE TOTALLYCHANGED AROUND FROM LAST NIGHT/S RUN. THE FRONT THAT IS MOVINGTHROUGH THE MIDSOUTH NOW WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE GULF COASTTONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THEFRONT. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.THIS WILL SET UP AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN OVER THE CWA AND WILLBRING WINTER PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. RAIN WILLBEGIN TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH LATETHIS EVENING. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN ORFREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS TEMPERATURESDROP TO THE FREEZING MARK. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THEMIDSOUTH BEHIND THE LOW AS IT PUSHES EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT.THIS WILL CHANGE THE FREEZING RAIN OVER TO SLEET OR SNOW FOR AREASNORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. HOWEVER...MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILLLIKELY STAY ALL RAIN. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HIGHEST QPFAMOUNTS FALL SLIGHTLY NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER INCH WITH SOME SLEETACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM INTERSTATE 40 TO THE SOUTH.AREAS JUST NORTH MAY SEE MORE OF A SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATION OFAROUND 2 INCHES. FOR THIS REASON...A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEENISSUED FOR EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND MOST OF WEST TENNESSEE. AWINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE FOR SNOWACCUMULATIONS OF 2 INCHES. FOR EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI ANDPHILLIPS COUNTY AR...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FORICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH.THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT THURSDAYAFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TODEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS MAY BEANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST AS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR INPLACE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WINTER PRECIP IN PARTS OF THECWA AS WELL. ICE...SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY ALSO KEEPTEMPERATURES DOWN. HOWEVER...THE ONE CAVEAT MAY BE THAT THE LOW TRACKSA BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ONE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY THUS SOMEWARMER AIR MAY GET PULLED INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILLCONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST.FOR NOW...TOO MANY QUESTIONS THUS HAVE LEFT AN ALL LIQUID FORECASTFOR NOW. ALTHOUGH HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD DURING THETIME PERIOD.BEYOND SATURDAY...MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS FOR THE EXTENDED.SEVERAL IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN IN THEFORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS WELL. FORNOW...HAVE LEFT EXTENDED AS IS.
SHELBY-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARTLETT...COLLIERVILLE...GERMANTOWN...MEMPHIS...MILLINGTON405 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2009...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGHTHURSDAY EVENING....TODAY...BREEZY. SHOWERS BEFORE SUNRISE...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY.HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. WIND GUSTS TONEAR 30 MPH BEFORE SUNRISE...THEN 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCEOF RAIN 80 PERCENT..TONIGHT...BRISK...COLDER. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...THENRAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING RAIN LIKELY BEFORE SUNRISE.ICE ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. LOWS IN THELOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT..THURSDAY...BRISK. FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IN THE MORNING...THENSLEET IN THE AFTERNOON. ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO ONE QUARTER OFAN INCH. LESS THAN AN INCH SLEET ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURESNEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITHGUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT..THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN.LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
DAYS 2 AND 3...NRN AR...TN VALLEY...SRN APPALACHIANS...OVERRUNNING PCPN ASSOCD WITH PASSING IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO SPREADMOISTURE NWD INTO KY AND SWRN VA...WITH MOST 00Z GUIDANCE TRENDINGSOMEWHAT NORTH OF PREVIOUS CYCLES. THE AIRMASS ALONG THE NRNFRINGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORTSOME SNOW AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z GFS AND 21Z SREF MEAN PTYPE. QPF TOTALS IN THE REGION FROM NRN AR TO SRN KY/NRN TN EWD INTO THESRN APPALACHIANS ARE GENERALLY AROUND OR SLIGHTLY OVER .25 INCHESWHERE A LOW THREAT FOR 4 INCH SNOW AMTS IS INDICATED.
DYERSBURG CLOUDY 39° 30° 70% N12 30.37R WCI 32 UNION CITY CLOUDY 38° 34° 85% N12 30.35R WCI 30 PARIS CLOUDY 37° 30° 76% N9 30.35R WCI 30
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Topic: Winter Weather Potential 3/11-3/12 (Read 11383 times)
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