Winter Weather Saturday, February 21

[Nashville_wx]

Alright here it is. We look ahead and see a chance of what I believe depicted right now of a 2-4" event. Please do not quote me on snowfall totals yet. Given we get .25QPF that falls as snow and use a simple 10:1 method we would see 2.5". Given 850mb temps at the time there could be higher ratios available.We are going to make the start to this short and simple, well something like that.

 The GFS and DGEX have wanted to lock in on a similar solution. Given the models are going to buddy up here we look to the others for help. Euro right does not look as strong with the vort and overall is going to loose and pickup its view on how the 500mb low rides and if it stays closed. 00Z Gfs ensemble last night has been moving to the OP run and we have seen some changes shown as the Ensembles have seemed to shown what tonights 00Z OP run shows. Given that we are still 100+ hour it is hard to nail down the overall outcome.

Look here on tonighs 00Z run starting @ 66 hours. You can see the shortwave coming down out of canada.

72'

78


Right now this area of energy is in area that has very little sampling and overall models will continue to change to with the placement of the s/w coming down.Also you can note the closed low over much of NY. How this progresses will also effect how the shortwave comes down and around. 00Z run tonight also seems to want to keep the 500mb low we saw open, releasing some energy and providing lift over a broader area. Look below here as you can see the 250mb and 300mb Jet streak. Rising air occurs in the right rear and left front quadrants of jets.Sinking air occurs in the left rear and right front quadrants of jets.Where convergence occurs in the upper levels, sinking motion results. You can see where we sit @ 300mb. Good area favorable of a good precip shield that could fall in the form of SN.


250mb




300mb



Given the overall GFS Ensembles have had this and now the 00Z OP run has things loosen up a bit we are going to have to ride it out. We want to see tonights Euro and see if it keeps the 500mb closed low. Who knows if I make sense.... In other words, something to actually watch.... Tomorrow will bring all new news!

[Clay]

I have to admit the 0z was interesting. What I like is that our neighbors to the south may have something reasonable to follow. If Birmingham got measurable snow then that would break a streak of 6 or 7 years of no measurable snow. THAT is impressive. Gotta love this part of the country. 3 hours north of here Louisville has already gotten a 7" snowstorm and 3 hours south no measurable has been recorded in quite a few years.

[Nashville_wx]

Tonight's Euro will be a big run.

[Nashville_wx]

Nice.

[Sbeagles]

I will be over in mid Tn early Saturday morning hunting with my dad so a little snow in the air will make it all the better.

[Cameron K.]

Good deal. It would nice to see a snowfall before the end of Meteorological winter. Nice write ups btw Nashvillewx.

[tennessee storm09]

looks like even here in west tn could get in on the action, keeping my fingers and toes crossed.

[StormAlertWX]

east tennessee wants a 3 inch snowfall!

[snowdog]

east tennessee wants a 3 inch snowfall!

You've already had yours.   

[maryvillereb2003]

is it looking like ET is going to miss it?

[HCW]

Frozen precip today in TN ?

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
749 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2009

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-171601-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLYTHEVILLE...CLARKSDALE...CORINTH...
DYERSBURG...HUMBOLDT...JACKSON...JONESBORO...KENNETT...MEMPHIS...
OXFORD...TUPELO...WEST MEMPHIS
749 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2009

.NOW...

THROUGH 10 AM...PATCHY VERY LIGHT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR
AT TIMES WITH JUST LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH...EAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND WEST TENNESSEE.
LIGHT RAIN AND OCCASIONAL SLEET WILL FALL OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
SLEET WILL BE SO LIGHT...LITTLE IF ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS SOME VERY LIGHT ICING ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES IN THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RISING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO EXPECT OFF AND ON RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY

[Nashville_wx]

6Z Ensemble

[dwagner88]

You've already had yours.   

naa, the mountains and knoxville had theirs. Nothing but a dusting so far for the lower elevations outside k-town.

[Cameron K.]

This looks like a clipper system. Am I correct? 

[Sbeagles]

WKRN mentions "snow falling overnight Thursday" is there anything to this?