so winter is over? no more snow or cold?

[Extremewxlover]

or don we really need real cold air for a big snow.


it will be 6 years withought a big nashville snowstorm? aint this the longest nashville has gone without 6+inches

[Clay]

I'm going to say what can be reasonably said and then give my opinion.

So far this winter has been forgettable. What looked to be an interesting winter for snow has yielded about 1.5 inches of snow in Nashville since December. 2 crippling ice storms have hit parts of the Southern Plain states and Ohio River Valley. Most of our January was very cold with teen lows and near freezing highs becoming something we were almost used to. Not snow was yielded. February after being suddenly let down by modeling over what was a potential snowstorm, we have gone mild but severe weather fans haven't had anything significant to follow around here. We still have time to get a good snow but time is ticking. March a pattern change could turn our luck right around.

Opinion: So, with roughly 4-5 weeks left of big snow potential around here lets look at the cards we have left on the table. Next week we will probably have some type of cold front heading through. We need cold air so that will help but modeling moderates the pattern again. For the rest of February NAO stays neutral says the most recent forecast. Heading into March nothing really jumps out at me and chances for snowstorms in March are already lower than they are now so I can't help but wonder if Nashville will indeed go for another year without a storm.

Winter isn't over but I wouldn't necessarily bet money on a snowstorm.

[shooting70]

Winter isnt technically over until march 21st,so there is hope.We are running out of time quick.The pna being negative is not very good.I had high hopes before winter started.I mean a much weaker lanina,and that has happened.It has been colder compared to last winter.It sound easy to get a storm to just track south of us and enough cold air to work with,but it aint that easy in weather terms.We were fortunate to see a snow last march.It was looking like we wasnt going to see anything last winter.We really have two weeks or so to see something,then its totally over.The reason i say this is because right now,we have blocking going on up north and that has kinda saved us to the extent of keeping the storm track further south that it could be without the blocking.I know it doesnt mean much from alot of peoples perspective,but it should.The reason i say this is because once the blocking lessens,there will prolly be 0 chance of any winter weather,much less any cold air.I mean if the pna somehow ratically changes to a +pna,then all bets are off,but it doesnt look to do that anytime soon.

[Thundersnow]

it will be 6 years withought a big nashville snowstorm? aint this the longest nashville has gone without 6+inches

Just eyeballing the data...

If we don't get any more snow this winter, this will be the sixth winter in a row of Nashville receiving less than six inches.  That would tie for the longest stretch of winters where we received less than six inches total since record keeping began in the winter of 1884-1885.

If you want to know what the other six year period of less than six inches of snow was... that was 1996-2002.  So, if you toss out 2003 as a fluke (when Nashville received 15 inches), we now have 12 seasons running of Nashville seeing less than six inches of snow per season.

If we receive no more snow this winter, I believe this will statistically be the least snowy six seasons since record keeping began in 1884.

Could we still see a big snow between now and spring?  Absolutely! 










But, I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

[Nashville_wx]

I might have to awake from my sleep if I like what I see tomorrow. So things may be shaping up.... just wait...

[Thundersnow]

0Z GFS is trying to hint at something, probably a clipper system, at 180 hours.  There is some colder air around that time anyway.

[snowdog]

I might have to awake from my sleep if I like what I see tomorrow. So things may be shaping up.... just wait...

Dont wake up...its just a nightmare.  Go back to sleep.   

[Chelsea in Tn]

0Z GFS is trying to hint at something, probably a clipper system, at 180 hours.  There is some colder air around that time anyway.

I would like to say  = "don't tease - let's get out there and plan the garden" but my lilac is going to bloom in about two weeks.

Every year it is the same old thing.. The lilac blooms ... is absolutely beautiful and then a good hard freeze will come along and kill it all.  If snow cam e with them it would not be so bad but it never does...

So yes around 180 hrs or further out it may be cold... it may kill all of the early growth ... but take my un-model educated opinion - there ill be NO snow....

feeling way too pessimistic after lots of pubic radio and other news broad casts over the past weeks.... the weather could at least cooperate a little....

I am tired of the game.. bring on spring... I am ready for storms, and planting my garden.....

[Curt]

Wow 0z GFS is really interesting down the road...and ok...I know there will be naysayers saying no way. Who really knows, but the pattern sure is starting to look more condusive down the road a bit. Late Feb may surprise a few folks. Of course, JB says in his blog that the East will see more winter in late Feb and early March than in Dec and Jan. May or may not,but it is certainly possible. I do not feel we are done with cold air for sure and maybe at least one or two threats.

[Nashville_wx]

[Coach B]

Remember, that last year we did not see more than a 1/2" of snow until the last two days of Feb.  Plus, the only decent snow of over 2" for some of area was not until March 7-8.

[Yazoo63]

If we receive no more snow this winter, I believe this will statistically be the least snowy six seasons since record keeping began in 1884.

One comforting thought for me at least, is that every year our pitiful snowfall streak continues, the odds go up for a good snowfall the following year.

I mean, come on ... the snow drought WILL NOT continue forever.  Sooner or later, we'll get a good storm to break the drought.  And we're getting to a point historically, that we will be DUE or even OVERDUE for a good snowfall  ... if not this winter, then next winter.

If we don't get a good winter storm with a decent snowfall between now and March of next year, i will be very surprised !!!   

To be honest, at this point, i'm really pinning my hopes more on next winter than this one.

[luv4tn]

It isn't over on my end ... since wednesday 12 inches in total ... 

Mosz of it melts during daytime, but comes back over night. So right now, white cover all over ... 

[Nashville_wx]

I would like to see tonight's 00Z runs and wait to see the Ensemble's.... As I have said all along, this pattern is going to have some interest. It was senseless to think that winter is over. None the less this almost a week out so things are going to change. Lots to watch right now and confidence would be low.

12Z ensemble


18Z OP @ 156hours

[Nashville_wx]

12Z 500mb




18Z 500mb