Wintry Weather, Feb 2-3

[Clay]

i just got off work and seen the latest gfs, its most def. smoking some good sh-t. i think things go back for tonites run like yesterday or close to it. tomorrow even better. i still think we could even see two storms phase some were across the sout east.  

ROFL I laughed! But be careful. Servocrow, has been known to turn ugly against that kind of stuff.      

[dwagner88]

early word on the street is that the new NAM is a disaster for snowlovers . Haven't seen it myself yet though.

[Clay]

Well so far the NAM is so so. 1-3" for Nashville, 1-2" for Chattanooga and 1-3 for Knoxville. Jack for Memphis, and maybe an 1" for Jackson. Crap.

[Clay]

The NAM may be starting to trend towards the GFS. Not a great sign IMHO.

[bigalpha]

Ouch.  Another outlier maybe?

[dwagner88]

i bet that swath of moisture over e tn. is cold rain being chased by colder air. we probably dont get more than flurries out of that.

I think I'm gonna hang it up on here until tomorrow night. This model-watching is making me crazy. maybe I will be pleasantly surprised when I come back!

[Clay]

I don't know. Ughhh... Now we have 4 separate models (NAM, GFS, CMC, EURO) showing basically crap compared to 36 hours ago. (1-3" maybe)

I know models can turn around but something has got to happen soon to turn this ship around.

[Cameron K.]

I don't know. Ughhh... Now we have 4 separate models (NAM, GFS, CMC, EURO) of crap. (1-3" maybe)

I know models can turn around but something has got to happen soon to turn this ship around.

I'll take it.

[Clay]

I'll take it.

...after days of 4-8" being consistently screamed by multiple models. A 1 or 2" snow wouldn't impress me but yeah it's better than nothing. It frustrating but its what we call MODEL MADNESS! 

[tennessee storm09]

i think i am going to take a 24 hour or so break from this models hugging too, its giving me a headache. i think i actually jinxs us anyways. i havent been on the much this week due to work. got on yesterday afternoon and holly beholl they were nearly showing a blizzard here in tn, get interested in that and poof it nearly vanishes to nothing. maybe  i say goodnite for 24 hours so and come back and just maybe the big snow storm will appear on most models. who knows.

[Crockett]

Well, go ahead and throw the 0z GFS out too.

Dang! We're running out of models to throw out.

[Clay]

GFS = Up to 1" snow for BNA.

[Clay]

Well, go ahead and throw the 0z GFS out too.

Dang! We're running out of models to throw out.

And I'm running out of hair to pull out! 

[OakRidgeWinter]

Okay, does ANYBODY think that low will shift back to the WEST like it was generally?? I sure hope so, because here in knoxville they was calling for 6inches for knoxville when that setup was they way..now there calling for 2inches! who thinks it will go back??

[Yazoo63]

Well, Henry Margusity is sticking his neck out and sticking to his guns regarding the screwy track of the low on the models ...

GFS NUTS...NAM HAS A BETTER FORECAST

I wanted to show you the reality of the models. The NAM model below is doing a much better job and has been very consistent with the storm. The GFS continues to jump on the lead upper air system and make that the storm far out to sea. The adjustment you will see in the models is the storm coming back west to a position close to what the NAM is showing below.

I will say and all the forum folks can quote me...."THERE IS NO STORM GOING OUT TO SEA NEXT WEEK AS SHOWN ON THE GFS..."

The other models UKMET and JMA both have a major storm coming up the coast... so lets see what happens...

He's either gonna come out of this looking like a genius or a doofus ... any bets