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Author Topic: Wintry Weather, Feb 2-3  (Read 50990 times)

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Offline Yazoo63

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Re: Potential Winter Storm, Feb 3-4
« Reply #30 on: January 28, 2009, 10:52:45 AM »
From Henry Margusity's blog over at Accuweather ...

http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=meteomadness

Quote
A lot of excitement starting for the storm next week. The GFS run is showing my big daddy and hopefully it can hold on. See the image below.... The consensus in the office today is the storm will be a little weaker and to the east of the the position shown.

Actually, i like the storm just where it is on the map !

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Offline Scot

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Re: Potential Winter Storm, Feb 3-4
« Reply #31 on: January 28, 2009, 10:53:30 AM »
Back side snow flurries or suppression?  More like back side snow flurries or depression if that happens again!
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Offline Woodvegas

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Re: Potential Winter Storm, Feb 3-4
« Reply #32 on: January 28, 2009, 10:54:16 AM »
1/28 12Z GFS depicts 3-6 inches of snow for Middle TN. If today's 12Z Euro continues to show this event it is game on. This progged setup is the kind that actually gives us decent snows.
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Offline Eric

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Re: Potential Winter Storm, Feb 3-4
« Reply #33 on: January 28, 2009, 10:55:49 AM »
Quote from: Nashville_wx on January 28, 2009, 10:48:02 AM
Eric you know better than to look at 2 meter temps this far out.Given what is shown, that is a major snowstorm for the area.

Honestly, I look at them whenever I look at models.  And you know as well as I do, not to look at 850 temps either, but you do it anyway...I'm just man enough to admit it... :P

Seriously, taking anything at face value this far out is pure lunacy...especially as it pertains to the GFS.  But the trend looks good, and I guess it's been on several runs, I don't know.  
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Offline lyngo

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Re: Potential Winter Storm, Feb 3-4
« Reply #34 on: January 28, 2009, 11:00:55 AM »
12z GGEM wants to give us a little love as well....

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Offline StormAlertWX

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Re: Potential Winter Storm, Feb 3-4
« Reply #35 on: January 28, 2009, 11:14:07 AM »
If this happens wont EAST TN get more snow cause were closer to the low?
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Offline Cameron K.

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Re: Potential Winter Storm, Feb 3-4
« Reply #36 on: January 28, 2009, 11:16:51 AM »
Quote from: Eric on January 28, 2009, 10:55:49 AM
Honestly, I look at them whenever I look at models.  And you know as well as I do, not to look at 850 temps either, but you do it anyway...I'm just man enough to admit it... :P

Seriously, taking anything at face value this far out is pure lunacy...especially as it pertains to the GFS.  But the trend looks good, and I guess it's been on several runs, I don't know.  

I think it's way to early to get excited, but the way system looks to be heading through is hopeful. Like any system that come through, we'll just have to wait until we know more.  
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Offline lyngo

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Re: Potential Winter Storm, Feb 3-4
« Reply #37 on: January 28, 2009, 11:18:47 AM »
Quote from: rhea weather on January 28, 2009, 11:14:07 AM
If this happens wont EAST TN get more snow cause were closer to the low?

Depends on the track of the low.  Closer isn't always a good thing.  If it runs up the spine of the Appalachian mountains, you might be in the warm sector for a longer period than folks a little further west.  You'd still see some snow as the system moves just northeast of you.  Ideally, you want to be on the northwest side of a low coming out of the gulf.  Less warm air advection that way.
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Offline StormAlertWX

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Re: Potential Winter Storm, Feb 3-4
« Reply #38 on: January 28, 2009, 11:21:30 AM »
 ::snowman:: i want a blizzard. come on low shine on east tn
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Offline Nashville_wx

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Re: Potential Winter Storm, Feb 3-4
« Reply #39 on: January 28, 2009, 11:37:45 AM »
Btw the 12Z GFS snows 6.8" of SN for Nashville @ 10:1 and 9.8" omega zone. Snowfall ratio will def be higher than 10:1 as the event moves on from what this run says...
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Offline Yazoo63

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Re: Potential Winter Storm, Feb 3-4
« Reply #40 on: January 28, 2009, 11:54:24 AM »
Quote
Btw the 12Z GFS snows 6.8" of SN for Nashville @ 10:1 and 9.8" omega zone. Snowfall ratio will def be higher than 10:1 as the event moves on from what this run says...

At this point, i'd settle for one inch that sticks around for more than an hour. ::coffee::

I had no more than blinked my eye before the little bit we got this morning that just covered the grass had already melted!  I hate when that happens. ::rant::

I have a feeling that temps may be marginal for any event on Monday, so the same thing may happen then.

Such is life in middle TN  ::doh::
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Offline Chelsea in Tn

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Re: Potential Winter Storm, Feb 3-4
« Reply #41 on: January 28, 2009, 11:59:28 AM »
Quote from: Yazoo63 on January 28, 2009, 11:54:24 AM
At this point, i'd settle for one inch that sticks around for more than an hour. ::coffee::

I had no more than blinked my eye before the little bit we got this morning that just covered the grass had already melted!  I hate when that happens. ::rant::


My poor daughter slept in a little this morning - she got up and said "Ummmm. I thought you said it snowed???"

The snow stayed on the ground - maybe an hour...

We shall see what Monday shall bring.... ::fingerscrossed:: (but not counting on it)
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Chelsea

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Offline Yazoo63

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Re: Potential Winter Storm, Feb 3-4
« Reply #42 on: January 28, 2009, 12:05:04 PM »
Quote
My poor daughter slept in a little this morning - she got up and said "Ummmm. I thought you said it snowed???"

I guess one good thing came out of things today.  It's my daughters 13th birthday, and now that the snow is all gone, i can take her out to eat at Red Lobster.  Don't have to worry about road conditions.
 ::guitar::
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Offline Eric

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Re: Potential Winter Storm, Feb 3-4
« Reply #43 on: January 28, 2009, 12:11:40 PM »
After looking really closely through the 12Z GFS, I'm gonna have to retract my earlier statement.  Temps don't look to be an issue.  There are stacked highs progged to funnel down Canadian air during the entire system with virtually zero WAA...a 1029mb over S Dakota and a 1034mb directly northward from that one in some part of Canada that probably has more trees than people.  Could this be THE storm of 2009...who knows...
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Mississippi State B.S. Geosciences/Operational Meteorology student

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Offline Yazoo63

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Re: Potential Winter Storm, Feb 3-4
« Reply #44 on: January 28, 2009, 12:32:38 PM »
Quote
Could this be THE storm of 2009...who knows...

All i know is, we're DUE for a good snowfall.  Judging from the patterns we've seen so far, this year is as good as any for a good storm to happen.  We've got the cold coming down from Canada, and we've got the moisture in the gulf ready to come up.  Just a matter of getting the two together at the right time, which is tricky at best.

Got my fingers crossed though.

White County schools have been out for six days out of the last two weeks.  I was kidding with my daughter that at this rate, she'll be going to school until June to make up for lost days.  ::rofl::

She wasn't amused at that comment  >:(
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