WINTER STORM (Jan 26-28)

[Clay]

Time to make a new thread for this one.

Here is a except from the NWS in Louisville.

...SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA...NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND THE
BLUEGRASS. SOME SLEET COULD MIX IN OVER THIS AREA TUESDAY.

OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...A MIX OF SLEET...SNOW...AND FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THIS AREA.

[Nashville_wx]

00Z GFS bufkit data will be available soon, I will post its results.

[Nashville_wx]

0Z GGEM moves south. 1040H in NW IL @ 60 hours.

[Alan14]

Whats the potential look like in eastern middle around the plateau?

[Nashville_wx]

Whats the potential look like in eastern middle around the plateau?

Pretty good for a wintry mx... Depends if you are north or south of I-40.

[Sbeagles]

Channel 2 news seemed to be starting to sound a little more concerned at 10.

[shooting70]

nashvillewx,what u think about the memphis area.I heard our area is becoming more concerned for ice than first thought.U agree?if the 0znam is halfway correct,its going to be a long drawed out affair im thinking.it shows heavy icing over dallas tx shifting ne from there.That storm has a little potential for later in the week.

[Nashville_wx]

Right now we all are in the threat. Tomorrow we will be able to work more details out.

[snowplease]

OMG....better get the gas logs working.

[JJJackson]

FWD's 10 pm AFD. For those of us in MEG, this is the office we usually have to watch to get any kind of winter weather.

ONE SIGNIFICANT NOTE FOR THE COMING WEEK IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINTER PRECIPITATION EVENT NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LATEST
MODEL RUNS /INCLUDING THE LATEST 00Z RUNS/ ARE COMING IN WITH
COLDER SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY. WITH ON GOING PRECIPITATION...THIS SITUATION BEARS CLOSE
WATCHING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR A FREEZING RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SNOW EVENT. BASED ON THE LATEST INCOMING MODEL DATA...THE
MOST LIKELY LOCATION AT THIS TIME WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA.

[StormAlertWX]

I think my area might get a wintry mix, (rhea, bledsoe, cumberland, polk, sequatchie, grundy, marion).
what do you all think? tomorrow will bring better data and more accuracy.

[Nashville_wx]

For BNA the 00Z Gfs wants to bring precipitaion in as ZR with .154" of ZR from 12AM to 6AM Tuesday... Take the next 3 hours as ZR and we total .276" of ICE. Well within ICE STORM WARNING.... Then Tuesday Night from around 10PM- 6AM Wednesday we see 1.5" of SN. One thing that I am starting to see is that this event could end with a period of moderate snowfall. Given the 00NAM is still out in the " crappy range" we will need to get a bit closer to see if the NAM runs away with a more progressive look.

[Nashville_wx]

00Z Euro rolling out now.Through 48 almost identical to the GFS. This is a good thing in terms of temps.

[snowdog]

I just dont understand how BUFKIT says snow when looking at hour 78 of the 00z GFS, it looks easily too warm. 

[Snowman]

Nice Discussion this morning from Louisville. Winter Storm Watches posted for Monday night through Wednesday.

000
FXUS63 KLMK 250800
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS ARCTIC HIGH REMAINS JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BY
LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE KY/TN BORDER.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE MORNING WITH SOME
SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

BY EVENING...FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL KY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO
THE MID 20S SOUTH. AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM LATE MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER NOW...INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT
WINTRY MESS FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN CHALLENGES NOW EXIST WITH HOW MUCH OVER-RUNNING
WARM AIR WILL OCCUR. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST SOLUTION. THE EURO IS
SLOWER...BUT THE TEMP PROFILES OF THE EURO AND GFS ARE SIMILAR...AND
SO ARE THE QPF AMOUNTS ALTHOUGH THE EURO IS HIGHER THAN THE GFS.
FINALLY...THE NAM IS THE COLDEST SOLUTION AND THEREFORE INDICATES
THE MOST SNOWFALL. SINCE HPC IS SIDING WITH THE EURO...AND ITS TEMP
PROFILES ARE SIMILAR TO THE GFS...WILL TRY AND GO WITH A GFS/EURO
SOLUTION...WHICH WOULD MEAN MORE SLEET/ICE ON TUESDAY...AND LESS
SNOW OVERALL. IF THE NAM ENDS UP BEING CLOSER TO RIGHT...WE COULD
SEE 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTH. IF THE WARMER SOLUTIONS
ARE RIGHT...TUESDAY WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM TO THE
REGION. BASED ON ALL OF THIS...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR A
SNOW/SLEET/FZRA MIX FROM LATE MON NIGHT TO WED MORN.

AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. OVER-RUNNING MOISTURE WILL
START LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO NE. PRECIP
ONSET ACROSS THE SRN CWA SHOULD BE A FZRA/SLEET MIX...A SNOW/SLEET
MIX ACROSS THE CNTRL CWA...AND ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NRN CWA. ON
TUESDAY...SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WARMING ALOFT WILL CHANGE PRECIP
OVER TO MAINLY A RA/FZRA MIX ACROSS THE SRN CWA...A FZRA/SLEET MIX
CENTRAL...AND A SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE NORTH. SO AT THIS POINT
WILL GO WITH LESSER SNOW AMOUNTS THAN WHAT HPC IS INDICATING. THINK
THIS COULD TURN INTO A SIGNIFICANT ICE EVENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN CWA. MAJORITY OF PRECIP WILL COME TUESDAY MORNING-TUESDAY
EVENING. PRECIP WILL WEAKEN A BIT INTO WED MORN EXCEPT ACROSS THE
SOUTH OR EASTERN CWA AS UPPER TROUGH KICKS OUT PRECIP TO THE EAST.
EARLY WED MORN...PRECIP SHOULD CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...AND ERN AREAS
COULD SEE A QUICK HALF INCH TO INCH OF SNOW AS THE PRECIP EXITS.

RIGHT NOW...HAVE LIKELY-CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...WITH
THE MOST SNOW OCCURRING OVER THE NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
MORNING...AND THE MOST FZRA/SLEET OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL KY
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF UP TO 6
INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS INDIANA. HAVE 2-4 TENTHS OF ICE ACCUM ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE
AND TUESDAY EVENING COMMUTE WILL BE EXTREMELY TREACHEROUS IF THIS
EVENT PLAYS OUT AS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL HOVER BELOW FREEZING EXCEPT
FOR THE FAR SOUTH AS THAT COULD SEE MID 30S FOR HIGHS. FOR
LOWS...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

IT IS ESSENTIAL TO NOTE THAT ANY SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE TEMP PROFILES
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER PRECIP TYPE AND ESPECIALLY AMOUNTS. NO
MATTER IF ICE OR SNOW FALLS...THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A
SIGNIFICANTLY DANGEROUS WINTER STORM. STAY TUNED.

NO CHANGES TO THURS-SAT AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

VERY LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
WILL STICK AROUND THUR THROUGH FRIDAY IN NW FLOW. THURS-SAT....TEMPS
LOOK TO STAY IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR HIGHS WITH UPPER TEENS AND
20S FOR LOWS.