Wintry Weather Chances 1/17 - 1/20

[Nashville_wx]

I wanted to go ahead and start a new threat concerning the possibility of accumulating snowfall across middle and East TN. Tomorrow afternoon will be the best time to get into details as we need to see the 12Z data from various models. Here are the latest models. IF things move NW we could be in the game for a solid snowfall.




..... .......... ........ And the HIT

[Nashville_wx]

CMC

[Nashville_wx]

00Z GFS ensemble members

[CookevilleWeatherGuy]

Oh boy...yet another TEASE!

[HCW]

Sunday is starting to look pretty good for some heavy snow in GA and SC. It might be that time again to go on a snow chase since we never get the white stuff down here

[HCW]

Montgomery, AL NWS  hints at Snow on Monday

MODELS HINTED THAT THIS PATTERN MAY UNDERGO SOME CHANGES AT THE
START OF THE WEEK. THE LAST FEW DAYS...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE HELD
ONTO A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BRING US SOME REINFORCING SHOTS OF
COLD AIR...WITH MODERATING TREND HELD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS TIME...THE AIRMASSES DO NOT LOOK AS COLD AS THIS MORNING...
BUT INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. WILL ADD MENTION OF SNOW FLURRIES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT AREAWIDE...WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

[Eric]

Not to be a killjoy, but the 06Z GFS shows zilch except for maybe a few stray snow showers, definitely not a big hit.  Even the temps look marginal, but i'm discounting those...it just looks wierd to me.  12Z NAM rolling now...

And it keeps the system suppressed from the Gulf Coast to the East Coast...and there is nothing available that'll help push it back northward. 



edited for time change on the GFS

[Crockett]

12z Op GFS isn't really a change from the 0z and 6z runs. Somebody lasso that thing and drag it northwest. 

[Thundersnow]

Uh... 12Z GFS for today isn't out yet.  It won't start rolling until 9:30 AM CST.

[Eric]

Uh... 12Z GFS for today isn't out yet.  It won't start rolling until 9:30 AM CST.

Correct...my bad.  It was the 06 GFS...

[Crockett]

Correct...my bad.  It was the 06 GFS...

  I did the same thing. And I had already looked at it earlier. No wonder it looked identical to the previous run.

[Crockett]

OK, now I can say that the 12z is almost the same as the 0z and 6z runs. Some northwestward movement, but not enough to put us in play yet. One thing that'll be interesting to see is what 36 hours or so of a southerly flow will do to the surface temps even for the light snow showers we might have the opportunity to see Sunday evening even if the Gulf system doesn't pan out. MOS prints a high of 37 for here. Course we know that's about as useless as the proverbial part of a boar hog's anatomy.

[Thundersnow]

12Z GFS shows off and on light QPF from 48-72 hours across TN.

[Eric]

Looks like the SREF wants to hold surface temps above freezing except for the last couple of hours, then temps take a nosedive.  Depending on the amount of liquid that DOES fall, there could be an roadway icing concern. 

[Woodvegas]

12Z GFS shows off and on light QPF from 48-72 hours across TN.

Looks like about an inch of snow with surface temps above freezing and about an inch with surface temps below freezing between now & next Tuesday.