First Half of January- Arctic Express or Blowtorch?

[Curt]

Well, finally the 6z GFS seems to match the GFS ensembles somewhat today for a long term shift back to cold right adter the New Year period. Obviously its a long way out, but signals are beginning to occur that would mean a Neg NAO. Could be pretty sweet if it pans out.

6z GFS really locks in on a Western ridge and central and eastern trough, meaning a nice cold regime for us with some possible winter wx events. This period is historically(minus the last several years) our best period to see winter weather and actually keep it on the ground for more than a day vs our March event.

Will it happen? Time will tell but I say its time for Seattle, Portland, Malibu, and Vegas to stop stealing our snow! 

[servocrow]

Hmmm...I want a Polar Express...I hear they serve pretty good hot chocolate, which I could use today! 

[Thundersnow]

I've read talk of possible -NAO blocking from some of the long-range pattern guys on other forums.  But, there's no consensus on what happens.  FWIW, though, I did read that some of the GFS ensembles yesterday were showing a far colder solution for after New Years compared to the operational of a particular run.  So, we'll see.

[lyngo]

The key is whether or not the -NAO forcasted by the models actually verifies this time.  We've had a very hard time getting the NAO negative during the winter months for any sustainable period for quite a while it seems.  However, it does seems like several models are on board with the development of blocking around Greenland just after the new year.  Does it hold for more than a few days or do week quickly loose the block and go blowtorch?  

[Thundersnow]

Some might find this interesting from "DTwxrisk" at EasternUsWx:

http://www.wxrisk.com/meteorology/Thisweekinwx/thisweek.html

Click on his audio for December 22 (http://wxrisk.com/meteorology/Thisweekinwx/DEC22.wma).

He disagrees with the notion of a blowtorch for much of January and February as some have predicted.  And, he does give hope of a return to winter weather in early January for the eastern U.S.

WARNING:  He does throw in a couple of expletives on the audio.  This fella tends to be a little arrogant and rough around the edges and doesn't always come across as particularly polite to others he argues with on Eastern... a rather abrasive individual.  But, he seems to know his stuff, if you want to dig deeper into thoughts about big picture weather patterns, etc. 

[Kevin]

Some might find this interesting from "DTwxrisk" at EasternUsWx:

http://www.wxrisk.com/meteorology/Thisweekinwx/thisweek.html

Click on his audio for December 22 (http://wxrisk.com/meteorology/Thisweekinwx/DEC22.wma).

He disagrees with the notion of a blowtorch for much of January and February as some have predicted.  And, he does give hope of a return to winter weather in early January for the eastern U.S.

WARNING:  He does throw in a couple of expletives on the audio.  This fella tends to be a little arrogant and rough around the edges and doesn't always come across as particularly polite to others he argues with on Eastern... a rather abrasive individual.  But, he seems to know his stuff, if you want to dig deeper into thoughts about big picture weather patterns, etc. 

A little? You're being polite  He does know his stuff though and his thoughts are always interesting to read. That said, he has had some rather epic pattern busts before (though he has been pretty good this season so far)...hopefully this won't be one...

[Cameron K.]

Looking at the extended GFS it seems that the ridge should break down a little sometime around New Years. Way too soon tell when our next chance will be of snow, however I do believe that something should roll around early Jan. Not a forecast but just some. 

[Cameron K.]

GFS brings some cold air in to meet us at the start of 2009.  Still a little ways out and subject to change most likely though.

[Curt]

GFS brings some cold air in to meet us at the start of 2009.  Still a little ways out and subject to change most likely though.

How does cold air affect the blackberry wine process bro? jk altho that stuff sure looked tasty

[Nashville_wx]

Dave can come across as a ahole on the forums. I have had some friends that have attended some of his seminars. He is very dry and right forward when it comes to weather. He calls most peoples BS and most of the time he is right. Do I think he could come across in a better manner sure.

[dave]

Dave can come across as a ahole on the forums. I have had some friends that have attended some of his seminars. He is very dry and right forward when it comes to weather. He calls most peoples BS and most of the time he is right. Do I think he could come across in a better manner sure.

Just to clarify, it's not this Dave we are talking about!  I can't afford to ruin my stellar reputation! 

[servocrow]

Just to clarify, it's not this Dave we are talking about!  I can't afford to ruin my stellar reputation! 

That's right..because before you would start shootin' at our theories, you'd ask this question, "Do ya feel lucky, punk?" 

[Thundersnow]

Little interesting tidbit this morning from our friend James Spann out of Birmingham (http://www.alabamawx.com/):

INTO THE LAND OF VOODOO: Not much change in our thinking; see the Weather Xtreme video for a look at the colder possibilities with the negative NAO flip into early January. I get the idea it could be a pretty cold month for Alabama with potential for winter weather mischief along the way. Remember, our two big brains, J.B. Elliott and Dr. Tim Coleman, have been suggesting we will have potential for a few winter storms this season with such brutally cold air covering the continent, all the way across the North Pole to Siberia.

 

[lyngo]

-NAO anyone.......




That's some serious blockage showing up around day 9/10.  Lets hope it verifies this time.....

[Thundersnow]

The players are on the field.  Now, we just need a good block.