12/23-24 Storm System

[StormAlertWX]

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/18zgfswetbulbT_MA138.gif

18Z GFS suggesting cold air coming into the southeast christmas week....hmm? interesting indeed.

possible changing to some sort of froze precip? 

[Cameron K.]

Looks like something to watch. 850mb temps will be well below freezing if this is to verify around 138 hours, however surface temps will still be around 3°C until just before the moisture leaves. The system is still about a week out so some changing in low positions is likely in the mean time.

[Eric]

Pulled this from MEM's AFD this morning...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS THE
AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF STALL THE FRONT ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY NIGHT KEEPING SHOWERS OVER THIS AREA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
ARKANSAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS MUCH STRONGER
ALLOWING THE THREAT FOR RAIN TO END BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS MUCH DRIER
AND ARCTIC COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY MONDAY. THE AREA
WILL FINALLY CLEAR OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE SUN TO
RETURN BUT ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES.

[Clarence]

To follow up on this, models show a big storm dumping into the four corners region on the tail end of the things.  The flow would put this into the Arkaltex region later in the week, but a return flow ahead of it would warm us...Maybe severe for Christmas? 

[Thundersnow]

12Z GFS shows a cold blast early next week before moderating enough for a cold rain on Christmas Eve.  That could end up being a close call though, depending on how things trend.

[Nashville_wx]

Ok on to the next event.  First thing is first, we need to look at the Euro,GFS and its ensembles. 

Looking at the 132 hour GFS we see that the OP and its members. Euro is not finished yet.

[Crockett]

Think cold is a lot more likely than severe on Christmas Eve-Christmas Day.

In fact, I'm gonna go ahead and call it: Snow showers, 30s on Christmas Eve evening.

[Reneezelle]

Think cold is a lot more likely than severe on Christmas Eve-Christmas Day.

In fact, I'm gonna go ahead and call it: Snow showers, 30s on Christmas Eve evening.

I will stick with that. I like the way you think!!! 

[Clarence]

Looking at the gfs, as it stands at this moment, I would say upper 30's for lows to low and mid 40's for highs on the 24th and 25th with a chance of showers Christmas eve.  Obviously, this is still in lala land and will probably change 5 times between now and then.  It does appear we will get a little more southwesterly flow going to rebound slightly, any cold temps earlier in the week.

[Thundersnow]

 

Granted... it's the 18Z... but, GFS says Merry Christmas (12/24):

850MB






2M




 

Ho ho WHOA! 

I'd like to see some Bufkit run on that. 

[Clay]

Every single Christmas... 

[Chris]

That would be a significant snow event for us-perfect timing for Christmas (granted it is just one model run) Could be a significant ice storm as well just to our south due to the shallow nature of this Arctic air-it has been very tough to forecast. It was interesting to note that winter weather advisories were as far south as NW Alabama last night. Models are underestimating the strength of these air masses.

[JJJackson]

That's about 16" of snow for KMEM. With Christmas temps below zero.

Will **NEVER** come close to verifying.

[Cameron K.]

That's about 16" of snow for KMEM. With Christmas temps below zero.

Will **NEVER** come close to verifying.

Never say never.   

[JJJackson]

Never.

I guarantee it.