I thought I would bump this thread just to make a few closing remarks. I didn't have the chance to do so until now.
I enjoyed participating in the discussion here. I generally do more reading than posting, but in this case I thought I would join in. During convective severe events I'm usually too tied up to participate, but generally during winter events I'm cooped up inside attempting to stay warm and thus have the time to join in on the fun here.
My apologies for the technical jargon. I know everyone here is at different levels with different experience/backgrounds. So, my apology for those that I may have put to sleep with all the bland meteorology talk. To those hardcore weather weenies, hopefully you feel that my ramblings added value to the discussion.
This event was VERY difficult. I'm very happy with my temperature forecast, which is indeed what I focused on more than anything. It was very challenging considering issues with the models and their inability to accurately represent such a shallow cold air mass. Truthfully, I didn't put as much time in analyzing the precipitation potential with this system. It did look like a pretty classic isentropic ascent scenario which should've given a good 0.25" or more of total precipitation. Fortunately that did not happen as that would have almost certainly caused pretty significant travel troubles as well as tree damage and power outages. So, as others said, we're fortunate in that respect. For the 18z and especially the 00z model runs leading up to the event, it was clear that the precipitation generation mechanism had trended downward significantly.
I'm looking forward to the next winter weather event. Although, I have to be honest, I'm ready for more snow and less ice.
