Icing event... 12/15-12/16

[Curt]

Well here we go again:
AFD Little Rock:

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE UPPER PATTERN HAS BECOME ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND...
MODERATING TEMPS AS WELL AS SENDING SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY EASTWARD
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. ON
SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE MID WEST...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST PLAINS. SOUTH FLOW HAS SET UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER
THE AREA...INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IS IN THE
FORECAST. THIS HOLDS INTO MONDAY...AS THE BOUNDARY SAGS A BIT MORE
SOUTH GENERALLY FROM OK TO MO. A FINE LINE BETWEEN THE COLD AIR
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE QUITE MILD AIR SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WILL REALLY CHANGE THE FORECAST. LATER MONDAY TO
TUESDAY...MODELS SAG THE BOUNDARY TO CENTRAL AR...WITH 10 TO 20
DEGREE DIFFERENCES ON EACH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. RAIN SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX NORTH. UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
OF THE FRONT AFFECTS THE FORECAST. HAVE KEPT PRECIP LIQUID AT THIS
TIME BUT FINE TUNING WILL BE NEEDED LATER IN THE FORECAST. ECMWF HAS
MUCH MORE PRECIP TO AR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAN THE GFS.

AFD Memphis:

ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNNING
THE COLD AIRMASS. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER CHANCES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

Looks like more of an icy/sleet type situatiom setting up...much more volatile than today and tomorrow's event if this takes place.

[JayCee]

I enjoy snow...but they can keep the freezing rain.  Can't drive on it; it brings down trees, and you can't make a snow man out of it.
 

[Thundersnow]

SD at Talkweather raised this issue today as well.

December's Dicey-ness continues...

[Curt]

Of course now that afternoon AFD's are out...see nothing in them of the sorts. May have to sort it out early next week.

[Thundersnow]

Of course now that afternoon AFD's are out...see nothing in them of the sorts. May have to sort it out early next week.

The overnight/early morning shift at Memphis is apparently the one advertising it there.  This arctic front/wintry weather threat has been mentioned by the same shift over the last couple of days.

[Slowmodem]

That upper-level Low just east of Houston could be trouble if the cold air gets here first.  Of course, it depends on the speed of the front, the intensity and track of the low pressure area, and the willingness of the public to buy milk and bread. 

[skillsweather]

this is my prediction for tennessee it will stay rain cuz look everyone said it was going to snow tomorrow and now its not so yall make a new subject saying o icy mess setting up for 14 threw the 16th lol just after finding out that yall was just wrong about a snow prediction o boy.

[Kevin]

this is my prediction for tennessee it will stay rain cuz look everyone said it was going to snow tomorrow and now its not so yall make a new subject saying o icy mess setting up for 14 threw the 16th lol just after finding out that yall was just wrong about a snow prediction o boy.

Wrong thread but...

Last I checked both MEG and OHX (And most on this board if you're counting those opinions, certainly me) indicated nearly all along (at least Today) that this would be A mainly rain event, and any snow would probably not be a big deal with little/no accumulation.

[skillsweather]

lmao all i got to say is bs about that ive been getting all excited reading the threads till the one just like 15mins ago

[Thundersnow]

lmao all i got to say is bs about that ive been getting all excited reading the threads till the one just like 15mins ago

I think you need to calm down.  The uncertainty of winter weather in Tennessee is very familiar to us here.  I'm sorry if you became overly excited about the possibility of winter weather tomorrow.  What we have been dealing with are outside chances.  The chance of snow around here tomorrow has always been an outside chance... but a chance nonetheless.  There have been countless times in the past when we have seen both surprise snows as well as missed snows that were forecast.  On this forum, we discuss all possibilities.  No one should allow themselves to get too excited about anything... simply because things frequently don't work out.

And, the *possible* situation being discussed in this thread probably, most likely, won't happen either... but, it could.  That's what we discuss here on the weather forum... the possibilities of what *could* happen.

If that disturbs you, then you might be better off not reading. 

[Slowmodem]

I agree with you 99%.  However, I will say that back in 1993, Neal Paschal (the Chattanooga weather guy on channel 9 at the time) preached for a week that the blizzard was coming.  He nailed that one.  That's one weekend snow I'll never forget!

[Thundersnow]

I agree with you 99%.  However, I will say that back in 1993, Neal Paschal (the Chattanooga weather guy on channel 9 at the time) preached for a week that the blizzard was coming.  He nailed that one.  That's one weekend snow I'll never forget!

That was a once in a 50 or 100 year storm.

However, here in Nashville, I also remember that storm.  I recall 4-6" and even 6-10" inches of snow being forecast (I was a senior in high school then).

We maybe got 2-3 inches out of it.

Even the "Blizzard of '93" was a bust for Nashville.   

Chattanooga and Knoxville hit the jackpot big time on that storm though.

[Nashville_wx]

00GFS shows some nasty weather tues - thurs next week

[Cameron K.]

Nasty? Looks like a front coming through a little over 126hrs from now, but nothing that looks alarming.

[JJJackson]

Well, I finally see what LZK and MEG have been talking about the past few days.

Nasty ice storm for mid-South ... if it verifies.