11-30, 12-1 Wintry Weather System

[snowdog]

If that Low would track from Birmingham to Bristol we would be in business.          

[StormNine]

If that Low would track from Birmingham to Bristol we would be in business.          

It should be law for at least every other year for a low to track that way during the winter time with enough cold air involved. 

[Chelsea in Tn]

The 540 is the best way to indicate roughly where the r/s line will be in the winter time but the best indicator of notable snow/ice fall is the Surface 0º line. Remember snow can fall at 36º degrees but it will not stick.

Is the surface 0 degree line on a different model??  I did not see one on the posted map...

Thank you for the patience. Just trying to make head or tails out of what ya'll post on here

[Thundersnow]

Chelsea,

It's on the same model, but just on a different map.  There are actually several different maps showing different things on every model run.

At 96 hours from the 12Z GFS... this is more indicative of what the model sees surface temperatures being:



Compare that to:



Notice on the 2 M Temp map, the 0-degree line is along the Ohio River, whereas the 850 MB 0-degree line (also known as the "540 line") is near Nashville... that shows surface temperatures versus temperatures higher up in the atmosphere.

The "2 M Temp" is more representative of surface temperatures, in contrast to the 850 MB Temps (from the previous map shown)... which is more representative of temperatures higher up in the atmosphere.

Knowing what the temperatures are at the surface and higher up is important in determining precipitation type.

[Woodvegas]

I don't know if the GFS is on crack but the 11/26 18Z run gives Nashville 3+ inches of snow Sunday night, even more in west TN. The 12Z EURO does not concur.

[Curt]

Holy moly...18z bufkit just gets down right nasty for KMEM. If this were to come true we would be looking at a major winter weather event with a couple of inches of sleet followed by 4-5 inches of snow.Too bad its the 18z:

[Thundersnow]

I don't know if the GFS is on crack but the 11/26 18Z run gives Nashville 3+ inches of snow Sunday night, even more in west TN. The 12Z EURO does not concur.

Yes.  It will be interesting to see what the 0Z GFS says in about another hour or so.

[Curt]

Yes.  It will be interesting to see what the 0Z GFS says in about another hour or so.

Yup..should be interesting indeed. Once inside 72 hours if this is still here, then I will start licking my chops. Untril then...in my dreams, especially this early.

[Thundersnow]

Yup..should be interesting indeed. Once inside 72 hours if this is still here, then I will start licking my chops. Untril then...in my dreams, especially this early.

This system will be coming into NAM's range before long.  So, we'll have more models to compare.

[Curt]

This system will be coming into NAM's range before long.  So, we'll have more models to compare.

0z Nam looks to have this feature as well, just not as strong. But that is typical for NAM at this juncture.

[Cameron K.]

Is the surface 0 degree line on a different model??  I did not see one on the posted map...

Thank you for the patience. Just trying to make head or tails out of what ya'll post on here

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp0_000.shtml

The map at the bottom right part of the screen has the 0°C line.

[Thundersnow]

0Z GFS places the Low further southeast...

[Cameron K.]

Wonder how it's going to really play out. 

[Snowman]

Prolly shift around for a few more days. 

[Cameron K.]

Most likely. 

I'll tell you though, that is some cold air coming in. We may be looking at another night in the teens again.