Dicey December?

[Reneezelle]

Updates people updates!!!!

[servocrow]

Updates people updates!!!!

She's here to kick butt and eat candy canes......and she's ALLLLLLLL outta candy canes.......

[Thundersnow]

It's about time to check the 12Z GFS.  But, to catch everyone up, the latest model runs from last night and this morning didn't seem to have a good handle on what may happen.  For example, the 0Z GFS from last night was showing a storm system basically stalled over New England for several days.  There seemed to be model confusion.  Remember, these are just computer programs after all... basically, the weather data caused the system to "hang." 

But, there is still general thinking that cold weather may be coming in December.  I'll check the new 12Z now.  But, this is where human intelligence takes computer models with a grain of salt. 

[Thundersnow]

Not anything terribly exciting on the 12Z run... some brushes with cold air.  Nothing major until way out beyond 300 hours now. 

[servocrow]

Not anything terribly exciting on the 12Z run... some brushes with cold air.  Nothing major until way out beyond 300 hours now. 

And so are the ....

[Snowman]

I do not think we will be able to pin anything down after thanksgiving for several more days. 

[Snowman]

Pulled this off of easternuswx, I found some humor in it.

[Coach B]

Good find snowman!  Bring on the snow.  How about 2 snow days between Thanksgiving and Christmas Break, 4 more in Jan, 3 in Feb, and 1 early in March.  That will use up all 10 we have. Then lets torch to 70 for the remainder of the spring.

[Thundersnow]

...and snow only during the week, right coach? 

Otherwise, we'll hear about how the snow is "wasted" if it comes on Friday night.   

[Coach B]

You got it T'snow!     Actually, I love the snow anytime, but it is partially wasted if it falls over a weekend/holiday.   

[Thundersnow]

8-14 Day Forecast from the CPC:



During this period of below normal temperatures in TN, precipitation is expected to be near normal.

[servocrow]

8-14 Day Forecast from the CPC:

During this period of below normal temperatures in TN, precipitation is expected to be near normal.

That sounds like a good          combination to me......

[Reneezelle]

Well I didn't see the snow coming last night!!! Not like it was A LOT but... still... we can still be surprised right!?!

[Woodvegas]

DT made a post this morning (11-21) stating that the "Euro ensembles were very aggressive with a Miller A/short wave in the STJ" on December 4th. I know it's in voodoo land but today's GFS 12Z ensemble mean also shows a southern storm at about the same time although not enough cold air.

[Nashville_wx]

What a model nightmare today. Tomorrow has to be better  Good or not, something over the next 72 hours is going to show itself. If we can get some things to work our way we could be in for a treat in the extended range ( First week of December ).