Dicey December?

[Thundersnow]

Well, winter weather fans, I'm afraid we're just going to have to bite the bullet and accept the fact that we're going to blowtorch for a little while after we recover from the frigidity of the next couple of days.

But, after the system next mid-week... we may be rolling "dice" of a different sort...

This is almost a day old, and I'll be checking the next extended outlook first thing in the morning to determine whether to create a new topic on it.  But, here was the SPC's latest extended convective weather outlook:

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2008
   
   VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS/GEFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT
   WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE POST-CHRISTMAS WEEKEND. THE
   INITIAL FOCUS WILL BE ON AN EAST-ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
   LIKELY CROSS THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK ON DAYS 4/5
   TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL INTRUSION INTO THE
   GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...A MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS SHOULD RETURN
   RELATIVELY QUICKLY AHEAD OF PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS...WITH AN INCREASE
   IN TSTMS LIKELY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY/MID-SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ACROSS THIS
   REGION...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/MODEST INSTABILITY AND AMPLE VERTICAL
   SHEAR SUGGESTS A SEVERE RISK FOR DAY 4/TUESDAY INTO DAY
   5/WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS REGARDING THE TIMING/QUALITY OF
   MOISTURE RETURN PRECLUDES A 30% DAY-1 EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AT THIS
   TIME.
   
   THEREAFTER...ON THE HEELS OF THE EARLY WEEK UPPER TROUGH...MEDIUM
   RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
   ACROSS THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL STATES THROUGH DAY 7/FRIDAY. WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR GREATER AVAILABLE MOISTURE...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE
   THAN AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK COULD MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE
   ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH AND LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DAY 7/FRIDAY
   AND DAY 8/SATURDAY.
   
   ..GUYER.. 12/20/2008

Notice the 0Z GFS run for the storm system a week from today:



Warm isotherms surging far northward for this time of year ahead of that storm system.  And, it has the look of a potent spring-like system.

In the winter months, that can be bad news.  Will be keeping an eye on that situation.

[snowdog]

Alright severe weather in winter my favorite...NOT!!  Well I enjoyed winter while it lasted this year.  Kidding kidding.  To keep my spirits up, I have been hearing talk of a possible -NAO around mid to first part of January.  Until then it looks the only thing to watch the models for are possible record highs.  Like the other day. 

[Snowman]

Found the updated discussion for ya this morning thunder.

  ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 210959
   SPC AC 210959
   
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0359 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2008
   
   VALID 241200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS/GEFS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD GENERAL
   AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE POST-CHRISTMAS
   WEEKEND. THE INITIAL FOCUS OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ON A
   NORTHEAST-ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE
   MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION ON DAY 4/CHRISTMAS EVE. ALONG/AHEAD OF A
   FAST MOVING COLD FRONT...STRONG SHEAR AMIDST MODEST
   MOISTURE/BUOYANCY MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE
   RISK ON DAY 4/CHRISTMAS EVE...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ACROSS
   THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PERHAPS EVEN
   PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
   
   IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK UPPER TROUGH...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
   CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN/SPREAD
   EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL STATES THROUGH DAYS 5/6
   THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WHILE CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY REMAINS IN THE LARGE
   SCALE DETAILS...OF NOTE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER MOISTURE
   AVAILABILITY AS COMPARED TO THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. AS SUCH...EARLY
   INDICATIONS ARE THAN AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK COULD MATERIALIZE
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH AND LOWER/MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR DAY 6/FRIDAY INTO DAY 7/SATURDAY.
   
   ..GUYER.. 12/21/2008

[Thundersnow]

About the same wording as yesterday, though they still apparently don't have the confidence to outlook an area on the map ("predictability too low").

[Thundersnow]

Climate summary has been released:  http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=OHXCLMBNA.

Notice that it was a very wet month (6.72 inches of precip recorded in Nashville).

But, temperature-wise, it was an almost perfectly normal month with a departure of only +0.2 degrees from the average.

And, 1 inch of snow was recorded in Nashville.

[Curt]

Yep Memphis was about the same with 0.2 above normal in the temp category(it was slightly below normal until the heat wave right after Christmas). Precip was way above the norm at 8.65 inches and zilch in the snow category.

[Clay]

Climate summary has been released:  http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=OHXCLMBNA.

Notice that it was a very wet month (6.72 inches of precip recorded in Nashville).

But, temperature-wise, it was an almost perfectly normal month with a departure of only +0.2 degrees from the average.

And, 1 inch of snow was recorded in Nashville.

I'll take that. Not too shabby.

[CookevilleWeatherGuy]

Here in Cookeville for December

48.8° Average Daily High was nearly 1 degree BELOW normal while our lows ran 30.7° which was a couple of degrees ABOVE normal.

We tallied 8.48" of rainfall which was ABOVE our normal amount of 5.73" for December.

Annual precipitation was 48.06" which was BELOW the normal rainfall of 57.82", but MUCH HIGHER than last year's 37.08". 

Annual Rainfall Averages:
Over the last 4 years-42.86" (2005-2008)
Over the last 6 years-50.59" (2003-2008)
Over the last 10 years-53.78" (1998-2008)
1952-Present (56 years)-55.50"

[dwagner88]

well we were 2.7 degrees above normal for december here in chatt town. also had nearly 10 inches of rainfall which is nice. brings us a little closer to normal for the year. 47.33 inches which was 7.19 below normal. only 1.8 inches of snow in 2008, which was less than half of normal, though the area mountaintops received near normal snowfall amounts.

[Clay]

Here in Cookeville for December

48.8° Average Daily High was nearly 1 degree BELOW normal while our lows ran 30.7° which was a couple of degrees ABOVE normal.

We tallied 8.48" of rainfall which was ABOVE our normal amount of 5.73" for December.

Annual precipitation was 48.06" which was BELOW the normal rainfall of 57.82", but MUCH HIGHER than last year's 37.08". 

Annual Rainfall Averages:
Over the last 4 years-42.86" (2005-2008)
Over the last 6 years-50.59" (2003-2008)
Over the last 10 years-53.78" (1998-2008)
1952-Present (56 years)-55.50"

That's a lot more than Nashville. Upsloping? What station are you getting you average stats from?